sharetrader
Page 298 of 465 FirstFirst ... 198248288294295296297298299300301302308348398 ... LastLast
Results 2,971 to 2,980 of 4649

Thread: Harmoney

  1. #2971
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    212

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by alistar_mid View Post
    Maybe leesal does have a point, that I should be valuing my outstanding principle in a different way for my Xirr calc. Cause I'm ~7% (pre tax) on Xirr but harmoney RAR is 14.5%
    Your outstanding principal for pretax XIRR should be 72,731.85 + 292.83 + 5990.63 = 79015.31

  2. #2972
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    212

    Default

    Coolbear.

    You certainly must have a solid grasp of systems and s/s, and seen the evolution. Back in those days the data must have taken up a truckload of 5.25" floppy's!

    You're right, it is a brute force method. Which is fine with my data, and necessary for me to learn the transaction flow of PP
    I've now swapped to a one pager... The closing position with heuristic adjustments. It maps out at 13.66%, close enough to 13.79% XIRR generated from working full transactional data. Which am pleased with. Have attached.

    Re your friend.. Will be interested to see how he tracks on 1.5 with a portfolio that size. In using XIRR I'd adjust in accrued income (say $60,000 x 15/365 x 20% x (100% - 15%) = $420... But I gather you already know where it'll track.

    One question I have you mention you hope the difference grows to 1.5%. When you strip the PP out of your actual portfolio, are you taking off the 4% odd premium pp principal, and estimating the return this provides over and above your baseline? Or something else?

    Attachment 9420

  3. #2973
    Member
    Join Date
    Sep 2012
    Location
    christchurch
    Posts
    386

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by leesal View Post
    Coolbear.

    You certainly must have a solid grasp of systems and s/s, and seen the evolution. Back in those days the data must have taken up a truckload of 5.25" floppy's!

    ...............

    ................
    One question I have you mention you hope the difference grows to 1.5%. When you strip the PP out of your actual portfolio, are you taking off the 4% odd premium pp principal, and estimating the return this provides over and above your baseline? Or something else?

    Attachment 9420
    Yes, those days a 20Mb (not Gb) hard disk was the state of the art for a PC.

    The statement that I hope the effect of PP on my investment will hopefully grow near to 1.5% from the present 1% - is just that the effect of all my loans before the PP era will become a smaller percentage of the total as time goes by.

    When I calculate my XIRR without the PP, I simply take the difference between "Borrower Principal Amount" and "Loan Investments (funded)" as the PP amount. I know that this is overestimating the PP amount as part of that difference had already been realised from fully and partially paid PP loans. I do not add any accrued income for PP. Mine is just a simple calculation to give me an idea of where I am going. I do not need it to be that accurate. After all, the difference in my calculations for XIRR with and without PP is just 1% at the moment. Refining it will just result in a slightly more accurate figure that is within that 1% range.
    Last edited by Cool Bear; 19-01-2018 at 07:43 AM.

  4. #2974
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by alistar_mid View Post
    But reality is 16 months in, all that flies out the window when your defaults start sky rocketing. I peaked at 166 E loans which was 13.5% of my portfolio by count, 15.5% by value. Thats a decent sample size. Thusfar my E's are running at 9% default rate. Thats after 16 months. Maybe I just got unlucky, 166 loans is not a massive sample size in the scheme of things.
    166 is a statistically significant sample size, so have faith in your numbers.

    And don't flog yourself buddy. You've done well with E's compared to the Harmoney universe of E's, which are currently at 11.25% default rate approx (they were approx 0.5% less = 10.75% ish, a couple of months ago)

  5. #2975
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cool Bear View Post
    The statement that I hope the effect of PP on my investment will hopefully grow near to 1.5% from the present 1% - is just that the effect of all my loans before the PP era will become a smaller percentage of the total as time goes by.
    If Harmoney reckons the net effect of PP is 1% (calculated on with vs without basis), you should cap out near 1% extra, not 1.5%

  6. #2976
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    204

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by leesal View Post
    Your outstanding principal for pretax XIRR should be 72,731.85 + 292.83 + 5990.63 = 79015.31
    good point, it being pre tax and all

    Xirr is now 13.37% lol
    Last edited by alistar_mid; 19-01-2018 at 09:36 AM. Reason: changed post to pre... too early in the morning

  7. #2977
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Apr 2002
    Location
    , , New Zealand.
    Posts
    726

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by beacon View Post
    You've done well with E's compared to the Harmoney universe of E's, which are currently at 11.25% default rate approx (they were approx 0.5% less = 10.75% ish, a couple of months ago)
    But then you've only been in 16 months, and Harmoney universe has been around over double that time.

  8. #2978
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    212

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cool Bear View Post
    Yes, those days a 20Mb (not Gb) hard disk was the state of the art for a PC.

    The statement that I hope the effect of PP on my investment will hopefully grow near to 1.5% from the present 1% - is just that the effect of all my loans before the PP era will become a smaller percentage of the total as time goes by.

    When I calculate my XIRR without the PP, I simply take the difference between "Borrower Principal Amount" and "Loan Investments (funded)" as the PP amount. I know that this is overestimating the PP amount as part of that difference had already been realised from fully and partially paid PP loans. I do not add any accrued income for PP. Mine is just a simple calculation to give me an idea of where I am going. I do not need it to be that accurate. After all, the difference in my calculations for XIRR with and without PP is just 1% at the moment. Refining it will just result in a slightly more accurate figure that is within that 1% range.
    Thanks Coolbear. That does make a lot of sense. Its good to see we are on the same page, its easy to get confused about PP and what makes it up. (FYI I refer to difference between "borrower principal" and "loan investment (funded)" as "payment protect unfunded".

    I find it interesting to look at PP, and break it down. If you take a typical loan say 15% over 36 months - going the full term with PP (say $1.13 on a $25 loan) you get:
    1- your base return from the loan itself
    2- 0.8% return from the interest element on the PP principal
    3- 2.9% return from the "payment protect unfunded"

    But if the average PP get 40% through (14 months), before defaulting or repaying early:
    - return from payment protect unfunded (3) drops to 1.8%.

    Thus ann return% on unfunded in (3), depends on policy length - presumably due to principal repayments increasing as the loan approaches maturity.

    Based purely on the difference between XIRR with (3) loaded up front and (3) stripped. You should be able to achieve a 1.5% at somewhere near 30%+ PP. But the true uplift from PP (3) will be on the lower end unless you can somehow get most of your loans through to completion.

  9. #2979
    Member
    Join Date
    Aug 2017
    Posts
    212

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by alistar_mid View Post

    So what I ended up doing, is putting together a portfolio about a year ago, with lots of E's - cause according to harmonies stats, when I modeled these, they maximised ROI.

    But reality is 16 months in, all that flies out the window when your defaults start sky rocketing. I peaked at 166 E loans which was 13.5% of my portfolio by count, 15.5% by value. Thats a decent sample size. Thusfar my E's are running at 9% default rate. Thats after 16 months. Maybe I just got unlucky, 166 loans is not a massive sample size in the scheme of things
    At least your returning 13% though

    Possibly a dumb question. Is that 9% the ($ write downs) over the ($ investment)?

    I've got about 23% in E's & F's. Although real early stages as dollar cost averaging my investment.

  10. #2980
    Member
    Join Date
    May 2014
    Posts
    204

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by leesal View Post
    At least your returning 13% though

    Possibly a dumb question. Is that 9% the ($ write downs) over the ($ investment)?

    I've got about 23% in E's & F's. Although real early stages as dollar cost averaging my investment.
    well when I stated I have 166 E's, that was when I had the max invested, ie my outstanding principle was the highest.

    I have now had 207 E's over the course of my investing in harmoney. Some of those are still active, some have been paid off already, and about 10.14% have been written off (I downloaded the csv as per yesterday E writes offs increased from 8.8% - the 9% i quoted, to 10.14%).

    So 10.14% of all the E's I have invested in (not current, have invested) have been written off.

    Of all the loans I have that have been written off, E's make up 48.84%, despite being 11.81% of what I have invested in.

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •