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Originally Posted by Sideshow Bob
Record date for quarterly dividend was on Monday.
Thanks Bob
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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Originally Posted by Roger
A question you might want to ask yourself after reviewing the SP graph's of the major Australian banks, is why has the ANZ been smacked down a lot harder than the rest of them ? Percy reckons they have the biggest exposure to the Dairy industry and from what I've read elsewhere this seems to be right, (sorry haven't got time to post supportive links but surely you can do some background reading ?)
Originally Posted by macduffy
The reason seems to be ANZ's higher exposure to Asian markets - now seemingly downplayed since the retirement of CEO Mike Smith and China's slowdown. New management have specifically revoked the previously ambitious target for Asian earnings. Dairy exposure, while significant to the NZ business is much less so in the ANZ Group lending portfolio.
Having skin in the game (being an ANZ shareholder) gives a strong incentive to check out the facts. So I have done just that.
Loan Category |
ANZ Loan Book FY2015 (gross) |
ANZ Loan Book FY2015 (%ge) |
ANZ 'Overseas' Loan Book FY2015 (gross) |
ANZ 'Overseas' Loan Book FY2015 (%ge) |
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Mining |
$39,610m |
4.7% |
$5,965m |
3.2% |
Business and Property Services |
$51,000m |
6.1% |
$6,969m |
3.8% |
Construction |
$7,609m |
0.9% |
$767m |
0.4% |
Entertainment, Leisure and Tourism |
$11,797m |
1.4% |
$1,438m |
0.8% |
Finance and insurance |
$230,710m |
27.5% |
$98,337m |
53.2% |
Government and Local Authority |
$52,524 |
6.2% |
$8.854m |
4.8% |
Manufacturing |
$34,432m |
4.1% |
$20,332m |
11.0% |
Personal lending |
$330,925m |
39.5% |
$13,246m |
7.2% |
Electricity, Gas and Water Supplies |
$9,795m |
1.2% |
$3,774m |
2.0% |
Retail & Wholesale trade |
$38,528m |
4.6% |
$15,460m |
8.4% |
Transport and storage |
$14,783m |
1.8% |
$4,984m |
2.7% |
Other |
$16,455m |
2.0% |
$4,476m |
2.4% |
Total |
$838,248m |
100% |
$184,602m |
100% |
The ANZ loan exposure to Asian markets is therefore:
$184,602m/$838,248m = 22.0%
By way of comparison the equivalent figure for Westpac, who do not have a specific push into Asia is just 3%. So the facts back up your suggestion Macduffy.
Now moving onto Rogers point, ANZ as an Australian entity does not disclose a separate exposure for Agriculture. Agriculture loans are lumped in with Forestry Fishing and Mining. The above figure in the table is 4.7%. As a reference the equivalent figure for Westpac (who claim to be underweight mining) is only 2.9%. So ANZ has nearly twice the exposure to Agriculture, Forestry Fishing and Mining as Westpac does. This means that Roger is probably correct as well.
In this instance, with both Macduffy and Roger likely being correct in their views, any mark down in the value of ANZ is probably a result of pressure from both angles.
SNOOPY
Last edited by Snoopy; 24-02-2016 at 01:22 PM.
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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Thinking of switching from these to the ordinary shares - anyone else done this or considering?
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Member
Great opportunity to load up on this bond if you believe no big sell off in global markets. Current sellers showing a bit of desperation below 102 for a bond yielding 7.2% in an ever decreasing interest rate environment.
Last edited by kiwitrev; 30-06-2016 at 09:51 AM.
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You should ask Roger KT..maybe he will ditch his AIR and load up on these..LOL
Originally Posted by kiwitrev
Great opportunity to load up on this bond if you believe no big sell off in global markets. Current sellers showing a bit of desperation below 102 for a bond yielding 7.2% in an ever decreasing interest rate environment.
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Member
Originally Posted by kiwitrev
Great opportunity to load up on this bond if you believe no big sell off in global markets. Current sellers showing a bit of desperation below 102 for a bond yielding 7.2% in an ever decreasing interest rate environment.
Odd behaviour with this bond. November record date trades at par, February $105.00 per $100 and post record date (today) $103.85. What occurred during November to cause sharp drop and why is the current differential so narrow compared with long term history?
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Member
No posts this bond for a year-but-thought should note ANZ calling ANBHA $835m 18 April 2018. So ANBHB Optional Exchange Date is May 2020 which allows for the bond to be repaid or converted to ordinary shares. What do posters think? Will ANZ follow the example of the ANBHA bond. Of course the behaviour of interest rates can affect the outcome.
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Anyone still following /holding/looking at these? If Optional exc date is may 20 exchange for shares I guess wouldn't be bad? Current SP is 19.58 (3years ago was 35 ..) cash out ok I suppose is ok. Thoughts?
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Member
They may offer a lower rate at the reset...but with whats going on who knows
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Originally Posted by BIRMANBOY
Anyone still following /holding/looking at these? If Optional exc date is may 20 exchange for shares I guess wouldn't be bad? Current SP is 19.58 (3years ago was 35 ..) cash out ok I suppose is ok. Thoughts?
Would you recover the brokerage buying fee with such a small time to maturity? ANBHB seems to be trading at very near to par. Existing Shareholders wouldn't like it if these bonds converted to shares. Good for ANBHB holders to get some ANZ shares at a discounted price, if such a conversion occurs. Bondholders would get ANZ shares at a very good price, but other shareholders would probably have a similar buying opportunity as the market price sank towards the bond conversion price. Have ANZ articulated the need to raise more capital outside of their commitment to retain more earnings?
SNOOPY
Watch out for the most persistent and dangerous version of Covid-19: B.S.24/7
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