CBL Insurance IPO

[JoeGrogan]

Not sure I understand your logic ... and where your numbers come from

However 2016 EPS was 13.31 cents (check out page 24 of their annual report - quite at the bottom, or look into 4-traders). From memory - this was due to some currency fluctuations (i.e. no real money lost or gained - they just keep their money in the countries in which they need to pay out the claims). I was under the impression that FT gets their numbers from 4-traders (they frequently seem to copy the same errors ), but who am I to know. I hardly work with the FT database - too many gaps, not enough info.

So - why exactly does this make the 28 cents (or 27.7 cents actually) for 2017 still more unlikely? Any currency fluctuation might go this year into the other direction (actually this is highly likely) - and as I said - lots of money making acquisitions made ...

But anyway - I have no insider knowledge and in this market anything can happen. Not long until they announce it anyway ... lets just enjoy the thrill - shall we ?

Essentially my logic is that if they (CBL) are forecasting 18-22% growth in underlying profit which equals roughly 55,000m. Then NPAT, an IFRS number, is likely not going to be more than 55mil as underlying profit is typically more than NPAT as it does not include tax.

I concede that my logic may be flawed, however, i am just trying to make sense of the forecast on 4 traders.

[BlackPeter]

Essentially my logic is that if they (CBL) are forecasting 18-22% growth in underlying profit which equals roughly 55,000m. Then NPAT, an IFRS number, is likely not going to be more than 55mil as underlying profit is typically more than NPAT as it does not include tax.

I concede that my logic may be flawed, however, i am just trying to make sense of the forecast on 4 traders.

Just add some "negative depreciation" (currency gain) to reflect on the currency losses from last year swapping back (not a technical term) and you might be there.

Look - I think I understand now your logic, but I don't think that it allows you to predict the IFRS EPS (without knowing what happened in the reminder of the balance sheet). Anyway - I find it hard enough to read an existing balance sheet - more so to predict a not yet released one ...

And hey - you might be right (depending on what the exchange rate fluctuations did to their accounts. Just too hard for me to put more effort into it at this stage ... given that the outcome (assuming currency fluctuations make the difference, as last year - just into the other direction) is hardly material ...

[sb9]

Well, after that silly trades last week, back to where it belongs with large crossing of 100K at 3.75 a piece. Bodes well for results next week.

[kiora]

Well, after that silly trades last week, back to where it belongs with large crossing of 100K at 3.75 a piece. Bodes well for results next week.

And a good whiskey

[winner69]

Insurance 'accounting' is one big guess eh

Probably a prudent move .....but will a lot of punters not understand


https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263782.pdf

[BlackPeter]

Insurance 'accounting' is one big guess eh

Probably a prudent move .....but will a lot of punters not understand


https://www.nzx.com/files/attachments/263782.pdf

Not sure, whether "strengthening reserves" is that hard to understand, but yes, I guess they could have done that gradually over the years instead of taking this time a big chunk out of their profit and adding it to the reserve.

Anyway - in a way it is just moving dollars from one internal account into other internal account (and keeping them this way as well safe from the taxman). Not too concerned, though they clearly managed to throw with this move the optimistic analyst earnings forecasts at least for this FY out of the window.

Disc: hold;

[winner69]

Not sure, whether "strengthening reserves" is that hard to understand, but yes, I guess they could have done that gradually over the years instead of taking this time a big chunk out of their profit and adding it to the reserve.

Anyway - in a way it is just moving dollars from one internal account into other internal account (and keeping them this way as well safe from the taxman). Not too concerned, though they clearly managed to throw with this move the optimistic analyst earnings forecasts at least for this FY out of the window.

Disc: hold;

Though some would say they have understated future needs ( overstated profits) in the past

But they not going to 'restate' the past

Insurance accounting and profit reporting just one big guess

[JoeGrogan]

They were going to miss forecast by a million any way so seems like an appropriate time lol. Wheres this growth at?

[sb9]

Have listed to management conf call at 1.30 and can say I'm quite comfortable with today's market news release and both CEO and CFO are very confident of future earnings.

There was lot of insurance jargon that at least I'm not familiar within the discussion.

Disc - was thinking of selling in the morning but after listening to conf call happy to continue to hold

[winner69]

Have listed to management conf call at 1.30 and can say I'm quite comfortable with today's market news release and both CEO and CFO are very confident of future earnings.

There was lot of insurance jargon that at least I'm not familiar within the discussion.

Disc - was thinking of selling in the morning but after listening to conf call happy to continue to hold

Special language eh sb9 - bit like accounting / reporting is special

Alright for now ....but somethimes these acturarial / experience adjustments can become a bit regular (think Tower) ...if that happens then I would be less confident