CBL Insurance IPO

[JoeGrogan]

I believe CBL had 23M in normalised NPAT 1H18...

Attachment 9440

What's your point? Are You saying the 42m forecast is normalised NPAT? Normalised NPAT for FY16 was 46.7m - 1HY16 was 23.2m and 23.7m for 2Y16, albeit benefiting from currency conditions (which the market doesn't seem to care for) and the no tax effect from write downs. Doesn't seem to be all that riveting having 23.6m normalised NPAT 1H17...

Therefore, regardless of whether normalised or IFRS NPAT is used as the measurement, i feel there needs to be massive growth in both for the 2HY17 period, in order for the SP to see favourable action.

[hardt]

What's your point? Are You saying the 42m forecast is normalised NPAT? Normalised NPAT for FY16 was 46.7m - 1HY16 was 23.2m and 23.7m for 2Y16, albeit benefiting from currency conditions (which the market doesn't seem to care for) and the no tax effect from write downs. Doesn't seem to be all that riveting having 23.6m normalised NPAT 1H17...

Therefore, regardless of whether normalised or IFRS NPAT is used as the measurement, i feel there needs to be massive growth in both for the 2HY17 period, in order for the SP to see favourable action.

Where did you get 46.7m in FY16 from?

I might be working with dud numbers here as it was stating normalised 38.3m FY16

[sb9]

Understandable... the problem is, we really do not know how they are tracking as outlooks and updates are few and far between

Forecasting in their line of work would be quite a difficult undertaking and I don't think they are keen on shooting themselves in the foot.

Agree with you on any solid, good news with this few sellers could move it into 350+.... same goes for bad news heading below 300 ( HOPE THAT STOP LOSS IS MKT PRICE AND NOT LIMIT PRICE )

I don't think they can afford another bit of bad news / unexpected write off like the one they had last year. Until that time the sp was tracking along nicely in high 3s...and bang came the bad news re write off.

[JoeGrogan]

Where did you get 46.7m in FY16 from?

I might be working with dud numbers here as it was stating normalised 38.3m FY16

Slide 7 of this report

http://cblcorporation.co.nz/UserFile...esentation.pdf

p.s. let me know if the link works because i'm having trouble linking pdf's in this browser

[BlackPeter]

I don't think they can afford another bit of bad news / unexpected write off like the one they had last year. Until that time the sp was tracking along nicely in high 3s...and bang came the bad news re write off.

What write off are you referring to? From memory - the only thing they did is using some of their earnings to increase their reserves. Looked like a wise move to me, but I agree, they could have done that over time in smaller increments.

[winner69]

You guys enthusiasm for CBL piqued my interestv....mybe CBL is different from most insurance type companies.

Investment in insurors never really been my thing .... make money on the premiums sitting on the bank and hope you come out ahead on one's claims experience. And then accounts are basically a guess anyway (acturial assumptions and all that) so always hard to understand what the real picture is.

But I pressed on but after trying to uderstand this document CBL is not for me
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...bl.nzx-311362/

I take it you guys have a decent feel for how things work ....good on you.

[BlackPeter]

YOUour guys enthusiasm for CBL piqued my interestv....mybe CBL is different from most insurance type companies.

Investment in insurors never really been my thing .... make money on the premiums sitting on the bank and hope you come out ahead on one's claims experience. And then accounts are basically a guess anyway (acturial assumptions and all that) so always hard to understand what the real picture is.

But I pressed on but after trying to uderstand this document CBL is not for me
https://stocknessmonster.com/announc...bl.nzx-311362/

I take it you guys have a decent feel for how things work ....good on you.

You know - it's not always the companies with the most glossy and colorful presentation which deliver the best results ;

[hardt]

Slide 7 of this report

http://cblcorporation.co.nz/UserFile...esentation.pdf

p.s. let me know if the link works because i'm having trouble linking pdf's in this browser

Not sure how I missed that one!... maybe I have selective vision.

Either way, the underlying business is more than strong and shows a lot of potential moving forward.
I also don't think this FY will be pretty to look at initially but as always, the machines operations are all sweet.

I know FNZC is a buy with a 370 or something PT and Forbarr neutral with ~350
Anyone know the 3rd broker covering this one?
As collectively their forecasts for FY18 averages out at 73M NPAT.

[winner69]

You know - it's not always the companies with the most glossy and colorful presentation which deliver the best results ;

Wasn’t the most glossy and colourful preso was it

But full of technical stuff about what they do and how they report the numbers

Good on you guys for understanding all this

But betcha only a couple of people, if that, have a real feel for how things are progressing

But then the main guys have been doing this successfully for a long time so unless something blows up in their faces will be at in years to come.

[macduffy]

You make a good point, winner. I've managed to miss out on some great opportunities over the years by observing the rule - Don't invest in anything you don't fully understand.

Disc: Still have a few CBL