CBL Insurance IPO

**winner69** · 04-02-2018, 12:59 PM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

No concrete company forecasts as far as I know, but from memory there is an ASX rule that (ASX-) listed companies need to make announcements if they know that their performance will be more than 10 (or 15?)% off the publicly available analyst consensus.

This might be as well the reason that they gave a reason for the halt on ASX, but not on NZX (not a NZX rule).

Analyst consensus for CBL FY17 is according to 4traders:
http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORA...78/financials/

Revenue 358m (up from 264m in 2016) and NPAT 42m (up from 29.7m in 2016).

Maybe somebody just recently discovered on board level this ASX listing requirement? Otherwise I can't really imagine that they would need more than one month after the end of the financial year to find whether revenue / earnings numbers are quite different to the analyst forecasts ...

Ah well, I guess tomorrow we will know more ...

NZX continuous disclosure rules / guidelines are pretty much the same as the ASX

Yes the 10%/15% is used as a general guideline as to materiality of financial performance .....could be v prior year, company stated guidance/forecasts or market expectations (analysts) etc.

When disclosures are made is important ..like as soon as the CEO and CFO are aware.

My reading is that CBL have a large writedown or something like that rather than day to day performance.

Google NZX Continuous Disclosures and I’m sure you will find plenty of guff.

Hope a Scheme of Arrangement hasn’t been entered into eh!!!

**JoeGrogan** · 04-02-2018, 03:23 PM

Originally Posted by BlackPeter

No concrete company forecasts as far as I know, but from memory there is an ASX rule that (ASX-) listed companies need to make announcements if they know that their performance will be more than 10 (or 15?)% off the publicly available analyst consensus.

This might be as well the reason that they gave a reason for the halt on ASX, but not on NZX (not a NZX rule).

Analyst consensus for CBL FY17 is according to 4traders:
http://www.4-traders.com/CBL-CORPORA...78/financials/

Revenue 358m (up from 264m in 2016) and NPAT 42m (up from 29.7m in 2016).

Maybe somebody just recently discovered on board level this ASX listing requirement? Otherwise I can't really imagine that they would need more than one month after the end of the financial year to find whether revenue / earnings numbers are quite different to the analyst forecasts ...

Ah well, I guess tomorrow we will know more ...

As Winner said the same rules apply for the NZX, 10% is normally used as a basis to help define materiality.

I think it was pretty obvious that CBL weren't going to meet these analyst consensus based on the 1HY17, so i don't think a trading halt would of been used just to disclose this. Also they missed analyst forecasts last year by well more than 10 percent and did not go into a trading halt - who knows maybe they learn't after last year's FY result that maybe it is wise to disclose one off's even if they are smallish?

However, I think this is pointing to a major one off cost... well not too much longer till we find out.

**winner69** · 05-02-2018, 05:17 AM

Originally Posted by JoeGrogan

As Winner said the same rules apply for the NZX, 10% is normally used as a basis to help define materiality.

I think it was pretty obvious that CBL weren't going to meet these analyst consensus based on the 1HY17, so i don't think a trading halt would of been used just to disclose this. Also they missed analyst forecasts last year by well more than 10 percent and did not go into a trading halt - who knows maybe they learn't after last year's FY result that maybe it is wise to disclose one off's even if they are smallish?

However, I think this is pointing to a major one off cost... well not too much longer till we find out.

As long as it’s a one off and ‘non cash’ wont be so bad

Market will just look at ‘normalised’ and ‘underlying’ numbers

Hope if it’s bad there will be panic and I get my $2.50/$2.75

**winner69** · 05-02-2018, 08:55 AM

Revenue growth in excess of 35% higher than expectations

That’s very very good news

**winner69** · 05-02-2018, 08:58 AM

Capital raising To come soon

Save up your pennies

**horus1** · 05-02-2018, 09:01 AM

It doesn't look like good news to me. Looks like they have underestimated the claims and been caught out, profitability lower?? and a capital raise. Are you sure winner 69. Don't hold any shares.

**winner69** · 05-02-2018, 09:01 AM

Hmmm ... one-off write-off of receivables of approx. $44m arising from broker/insurer/reinsurer reconciliations and related differences arising from a detailed post-acquisition examination of SFS throughout 2017.

Due diligence a bit weak?

**winner69** · 05-02-2018, 09:03 AM

Originally Posted by horus1

It doesn't look like good news to me. Looks like they have underestimated the claims and been caught out, profitability lower?? and a capital raise. Are you sure winner 69. Don't hold any shares.

Maybe at $2.20 horus.

Future looks bright the head honcho said