Black Monday

[Jaa]

It's actually an exciting time for China. By deflating this housing bubble and cleaning up industry they are actually chartering a path to the next stage of their economic development.

The only thing I'm worried about with China is their demographic challenges. Chinese women are only having abou 1.18 children each (officially 1.3) and with peak population next year (according to state media) they are in a precarious situation where in 60-80 years they may have half the population which is an extremely steep decline.

Interesting discussion.

The CCP and thus China prioritises internal stability at all costs. So while changing economic models may well be exciting and beneficial in the long term, just like in NZ it will and is leaving many people behind.

Without political freedoms, people rely on the promise of a better life via increasing property values, stock prices, employment prospects etc. This is why the government has always bailed out any major failures. Xi probably should let Evergrande fail but will he take the risk?

This is also why you see so many laughable attacks on foreigners from Chinese diplomats like the Australia nonsense Balance proudly talks about. They are for internal consumption as it gives people someone other than the CCP to blame. Obviously history tells us this strategy is also full of risks!

For one it causes individuals and countries to take a harder line on China and decrease their ability to provide that increasing standard of living. Amazon's crackdown on Chinese sellers with fake reviews is a small example.

[Balance]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...it-2021-09-21/

Evergrande to make interest payment on 23 Sept.

[Waltzing]

EVG too big to fall over after all. Central bank stepping in , so much for the idea of them letting the chip fall where they may.

Sounds like are not going to let the it run it course after all.

[Balance]

https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion...une-region-and

Past the point of no return between China & Australia?

[Balance]

https://johnmenadue.com/history-is-r...ison-on-china/

History repeating itself - Australia making huge miscalculation with China.

[Panda-NZ-]

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-...it-2021-09-21/

Your move Republican/united russia senators.

[nztx]

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/...it-2021-09-21/

Evergrande to make interest payment on 23 Sept.

Evergrande is possibly a good indicator of the extent of potentially toxic, wounded and not far off
unrecoverable terminal lending which persists in the Chinese goldfish bowl .. plenty of previous warnings
on what lurks within the depths of their financial system IMO

[kiora]

Kick the ball down the road
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Mar...-holdings-rise

[Panda-NZ-]

Fedex drops 10% due to labour shortage..

NZ business take note, Time for the country to automate and lift the woeful productivity we have here.

[Tomtom]

Without political freedoms, people rely on the promise of a better life via increasing property values, stock prices, employment prospects etc. This is why the government has always bailed out any major failures. Xi probably should let Evergrande fail but will he take the risk?
...
For one it causes individuals and countries to take a harder line on China and decrease their ability to provide that increasing standard of living.

The Evergrande question is more complex than just bail out or fail. Reasonably PBOC might offer funding to other property developers to pick up those assets and just let everyone else take a very substantial haircut. Everyone is on notice now though that the speculative era in property is ending (as Xi Jinping told them would happen five years ago.)

Regarding quality of life and the push for Chinese consumption, this also comes at an interesting time. Across the world for four decades a substantial number of workers in the global workforce. There has been some really interesting work by Juselius and Takats who suggest this workforce-age effect has knocked about 3% p.a. off global inflation but they suggest historic evidence is that inflation will actually increase inflation by nearly the same amount absent further offset. Basically you have a higher number of consumers relying on a reduced workforce to provide goods and services. If true you'd expect to see labour markets get really tight and start to push inflation along.

Fedex drops 10% due to labour shortage..

NZ business take note, Time for the country to automate and lift the woeful productivity we have here.