Black Monday

[Jiggs]

Richard Prebble pointed out in the Herald today that the NZ economy is in a state of galloping inflation due to quantitative easing and he noted "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment".

And on the timing of this collapse....."In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could".

So do I build up supplies of ready cash to buy dirt cheap utilities shares when the NZX crashes? Or do I buy as many overseas shares as I can now, so I can sell them when the NZ dollar suddenly devalues? What overseas shares? Would MLT.NZ be OK?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...bcaVL2zE88hx4w

[bull....]

Richard Prebble pointed out in the Herald today that the NZ economy is in a state of galloping inflation due to quantitative easing and he noted "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The final outcome of the credit expansion is general impoverishment".

And on the timing of this collapse....."In economics, things take longer to happen than you think they will, and then they happen faster than you thought they could".

So do I build up supplies of ready cash to buy dirt cheap utilities shares when the NZX crashes? Or do I buy as many overseas shares as I can now, so I can sell them when the NZ dollar suddenly devalues? What overseas shares? Would MLT.NZ be OK?

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...bcaVL2zE88hx4w

nzx not going to crash unless wall st crashes as it has been all thru history so buying overseas shares to avoid a crash in nz is very unlikely to help you

[Hoop]

Crashes are rare...media reciting crashes are common

[Bobdn]

Crashes are rare...media reciting crashes are common

Yes, rare. This video, from PensionCraft, sets out just how rare they are:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=la-zdPUcmUQ

[bull....]

Tom Lee predicted April would be a "face ripper" of a rally, he's right as usual (not to jinx it)

I'm on auto-pilot until we reach 4400 on the S&P500 (and whatever that translates to on USF.NZX). That's Marko Kolanovic's prediction.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/03/18/jpmo...00-higher.html

It feels like everyone is all in now. I should take some chips off the table but I don't want to. I've always left the party early and regretted it. Just a few more drinks and then I'll leave...maybe. I don't know. I wish I had the strength to just check in on markets once every couple of years. Would make things a lot easier.

PS, I should add that Tony Dwyer on Fast Money recommended taking a little bit of profit here. Tony Dwyer, Tom Lee, and Marko Kolanovic have made plenty of people money over the last 12 months with their calls.

https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/04/1...-earnings.html

i find rick rieder ( blackrock ) and geoff gundlach ( doubleline ) as well as the people you mentioned all worth a listen too. some smart people on cnbc for sure

[bull....]

coinbase listing shortly

Here’s what Coinbase is and how to use it to buy and sell cryptocurrencies

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/what...to-use-it.html

even if you dont invest in cypto's understanding the whole digital space would benefit you as its the future and highly likely to make traditonal banks the next big disrupted space eg digital wallets etc

[Bobdn]

i find rick rieder ( blackrock ) and geoff gundlach ( doubleline ) as well as the people you mentioned all worth a listen too. some smart people on cnbc for sure

Yeah for sure. Rick Rieder and Gundlach are great. Interesting that Reider is holding more cash right now than he has in the past. I'm really conflicted now with Tom Lee, Kolonovic on one side and Tony Dwyer, Mike Wilson and Reider slightly on the other. All think we're in a bull market but the last three think it's time for a pause. I certainly get my money's worth with my Sky subscription with CNBC. Drinking coffee and watching Closing Bell is the highlight of my day. My life is pretty boring.

[bull....]

Yeah for sure. Rick Rieder and Gundlach are great. Interesting that Reider is holding more cash right now than he has in the past. I'm really conflicted now with Tom Lee, Kolonovic on one side and Tony Dwyer, Mike Wilson and Reider slightly on the other. All think we're in a bull market but the last three think it's time for a pause. I certainly get my money's worth with my Sky subscription with CNBC. Drinking coffee and watching Closing Bell is the highlight of my day. My life is pretty boring.

think the over riding conclusion for me is as long as the fed keep doing there monthly cash printing and the stimulus is still flowing all should be good. now i just got to work out when the printing stops? lol

[bull....]

US markets going good again , europe markets at new highs last night.

Jamie Dimon says U.S. consumers are ‘coiled, ready to go’ with $2 trillion more in checking accounts


“What happened is, the consumer has so much money, they’re paying down their credit card loans, which is good,” Dimon said. “Their balance sheet is in excellent, outstanding shape – coiled, ready to go and they’re starting to spend money. Consumers have $2 trillion in more cash in their checking accounts than they had before Covid.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/jami...-accounts.html

hmmm wonder if its the same in NZ


ECONOMYRetail sales explode in March as consumers use stimulus checks to spend heavily

Retail sales boomed 9.8% higher in March thanks to a jump in spending at bars and restaurants as well as multiple other groups.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/us-r...arch-2021.html

[Biscuit]

US markets going good again , europe markets at new highs last night.

Jamie Dimon says U.S. consumers are ‘coiled, ready to go’ with $2 trillion more in checking accounts


“What happened is, the consumer has so much money, they’re paying down their credit card loans, which is good,” Dimon said. “Their balance sheet is in excellent, outstanding shape – coiled, ready to go and they’re starting to spend money. Consumers have $2 trillion in more cash in their checking accounts than they had before Covid.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/14/jami...-accounts.html

hmmm wonder if its the same in NZ


ECONOMYRetail sales explode in March as consumers use stimulus checks to spend heavily


Retail sales boomed 9.8% higher in March thanks to a jump in spending at bars and restaurants as well as multiple other groups.

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/15/us-r...arch-2021.html

As said before, this can not end well.