Black Monday

[mfd]

Fair call. I guess I don't fall in that category (natural fear of covid) so it does not affect me. But you are right there are a lot of the population that do fit that category so had not thought about self imposed isolation etc. That does make sense.

I forgot to mention, many people would have avoided overseas travel as far as possible even if borders weren't locked, so tourism was likely to take a dive anyway.

A strict lockdown will certainly have made the economic pain more intense, but if it works out in New Zealand it could be the better option overall. In other parts of the world it simply stopped the hospitals from completely failing.

[bottomfeeder]

I get the feeling that the market is becoming too firm in its pricing. Maybe a correction on the way soon.

[Balance]

I get the feeling that the market is becoming too firm in its pricing. Maybe a correction on the way soon.

Inevitable buy from what level?

[blackcap]

I've posted a couple articles for you Blackcap (and others), academic papers which disentangle the effects of Covid / lockdown etc. I suggest you have a read of them rather than me trying to paraphrase for you. But in short, yes, you are missing something obvious.... The first article I posted was a natural experiment, comparing the economic impacts faced by Sweden (no lock down) with those of Denmark (lock down). Two relatively comparable countries. I suspect you will find the results surprising. It basically makes all those suggesting that governments imposing lockdowns have caused all the economic harm look a little silly.

The Swedish v Denmark example is a bit of a red herring though. If all countries do a lockup and one outlier does not, with the amount of trade/inter dependency etc these days, then that one outlier is going to suffer as well aren't they. Not because of anything other than that their neighbours are not trading/visiting them etc. What would be interesting to see is the opposite, one country does a lockup and all other neighbouring/trading countries did not. But that is not going to happen.

[Balance]

The Swedish v Denmark example is a bit of a red herring though. If all countries do a lockup and one outlier does not, with the amount of trade/inter dependency etc these days, then that one outlier is going to suffer as well aren't they. Not because of anything other than that their neighbours are not trading/visiting them etc. What would be interesting to see is the opposite, one country does a lockup and all other neighbouring/trading countries did not. But that is not going to happen.

What must be assessed is the degree of lockdown & the resulting economic impact.

NZ vs Australia vs Taiwan.

[moka]

Imagine that the Fed hired Blackrock to buy Junk Bonds and ETFs to bail out Blackrock’s Bond portfolio and then Blackrock bought ETFs managed by Blackrock from Blackrock that have as their biggest holding, not bonds but a Blackrock money market fund

https://twitter.com/paranoidbull/sta...173453319?s=21

Interesting article on the dawn of the BlackRock Era. The world’s largest asset manager is poised for overwhelming influence no matter who wins the next presidential election.
In recent years, we’ve been living in the Goldman Sachs era. The list of former high-level Goldman Sachs employees who held high-level government offices in the most recent decade is lengthy.
BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager, handling $7.4 trillion in customer assets. It’s twice as profitable as Goldman. BlackRock is part money manager, part institutional investor, part software platform, and part government partner. It’s a pioneer in junk bonds, and has often been referred to as the world’s largest shadow bank.
In March, the Federal Reserve announced that it had tapped BlackRock to serve as an investment adviser and asset manager for multiple debt-buying programs on behalf of the U.S. central bank as part of the CARES Act bailout program, a money pot worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
That decision put BlackRock on both sides of a multitrillion-dollar bailout windfall: As Bloomberg reported, “Under the arrangement [BlackRock] could buy some of its own funds on behalf of the central bank.
BlackRock employees managing the Fed’s $750 billion corporate credit facility are permitted to trade on the information they’ve learned in advising the Fed after just two weeks of “cooling off.
That regulatory standard means that the firm and its individual traders are primed to benefit massively and legally from insider knowledge of what’s been by far the most robust and efficient component of the bailout so far.
https://prospect.org/economy/the-daw...blackrock-era/

[kiora]

Interesting article on the dawn of the BlackRock Era. The world’s largest asset manager is poised for overwhelming influence no matter who wins the next presidential election.
In recent years, we’ve been living in the Goldman Sachs era. The list of former high-level Goldman Sachs employees who held high-level government offices in the most recent decade is lengthy.
BlackRock is the world’s biggest asset manager, handling $7.4 trillion in customer assets. It’s twice as profitable as Goldman. BlackRock is part money manager, part institutional investor, part software platform, and part government partner. It’s a pioneer in junk bonds, and has often been referred to as the world’s largest shadow bank.
In March, the Federal Reserve announced that it had tapped BlackRock to serve as an investment adviser and asset manager for multiple debt-buying programs on behalf of the U.S. central bank as part of the CARES Act bailout program, a money pot worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
That decision put BlackRock on both sides of a multitrillion-dollar bailout windfall: As Bloomberg reported, “Under the arrangement [BlackRock] could buy some of its own funds on behalf of the central bank.
BlackRock employees managing the Fed’s $750 billion corporate credit facility are permitted to trade on the information they’ve learned in advising the Fed after just two weeks of “cooling off.
That regulatory standard means that the firm and its individual traders are primed to benefit massively and legally from insider knowledge of what’s been by far the most robust and efficient component of the bailout so far.
https://prospect.org/economy/the-daw...blackrock-era/

Please tell me this couldn't,ever ,happen in NZ !

[Balance]

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12337026
Paywall article

"The New Zealand dollar continued to rise as sentiment in global equities markets remained relentlessly positive about the global economy reviving with countries emerging from Covid-19 lockdowns."
Guess we will see more overseas funds to go into NZX stocks too.

[Balance]

Funny old world - Did the market collapse of March 23rd 2020 actually happened?

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coron...075532395.html

European stocks gained for a third consecutive day on Wednesday as strong data from China’s services sector fuelled investors’ hopes that the global economy will stage a strong recovery from the coronavirus crisis.

Markets looked set to side-step any impact from the continued civil unrest in the US, which saw largely peaceful protestors defy curfews across the country on Tuesday night.

A closely watched survey by IHS Markit found that China’s services sector’s purchasing managers’ index (PMI) reading came in at 55.0 in May, its highest since October 2010.

[moka]

Pierre Haski, a noted French journalist, commented on France Inter on Monday: "Beijing could not have hoped for a better gift. The country that designates China as the culprit of all evils is making headlines around the world with the urban riots."
'We are all George Floyd': Global anger grows over a death in Minneapolis.
https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/new...ectid=12336411