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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #5341

  2. #5342
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    The alarm bells just keep coming!

    Best bull market since 1987! Low unemployment they say!

    Yet December we saw China pump the markets with Trillions of dollars, ECB just announced last week that they are back to QE.. they are still at 0% interest rates?! The Fed have announced no more QT and we are back to wait and see mode instead of hikes this year!

    Huge number of store closures announced in the US for a lot of the major retailers.

    Auto loans are in arrears for close to 8 million in the US.

    Suncorp (AUS bank) just announced they some investors may not get their full funds back on a mortgage security.

    China output down by 20%

    Property markets in US,Canada,Australia starting a long decline. With in inventory raising in NZ.. last month 10000 properties for sale in Auckland.. same month last year 4000 for sale.. downturn coming here also.

    Sounding like a meltdown is close.. September or October are the months to be in cash positions.

    If you don't believe me feel free to google search all this!

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...nancial-crisis

  3. #5343
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    no vote for brexit

    in the article blog they give graph of what happens now

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-brexit-update
    bull

  4. #5344
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    back above 2800 - 2812 resistance lets see how we close , a close above needs another day or two then maybe new highs are coming. see dju at all time highs
    bull

  5. #5345
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    Financial markets have fully priced in the likelihood the RBA will cut its cash rate by September and a 50 percent chance of another cut by the end of the year.
    The market has priced in a 70 percent chance of an official cash rate cut in New Zealand within the next 12 months.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...nzs-toplis.htm

    totally aus will lower there rates . im picking rbnz will lower theres in tandem with the higher bank capital requirements. anyway all good for holding utilities
    bull

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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Financial markets have fully priced in the likelihood the RBA will cut its cash rate by September and a 50 percent chance of another cut by the end of the year.
    The market has priced in a 70 percent chance of an official cash rate cut in New Zealand within the next 12 months.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...nzs-toplis.htm

    totally aus will lower there rates . im picking rbnz will lower theres in tandem with the higher bank capital requirements. anyway all good for holding utilities
    You may want to read the below as to why RBNZ may not follow RBA rate cut...

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...very-different

  7. #5347
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    Quote Originally Posted by Onion View Post
    I think you overstate the significance.
    https://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/...ectid=12212776

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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    You may want to read the below as to why RBNZ may not follow RBA rate cut...

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...very-different
    that economist forgets to mention the nzd/aud forex rate would probably go over 1 to 1 if interest rates in nz become more attractive than aus. this would cause further contraction in nz gdp as exporters slowly become uncompetitive across the ditch and lay off staff in nz and cut costs etc to remain in the game. also he is placing all his eggs on the nz housing market/ construction staying strong. but as we already see developers are going bust all over the place so there wont be enough of them left soon to maintain the big construction end of the market there this part of construction will decline
    bull

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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    that economist forgets to mention the nzd/aud forex rate would probably go over 1 to 1 if interest rates in nz become more attractive than aus. this would cause further contraction in nz gdp as exporters slowly become uncompetitive across the ditch and lay off staff in nz and cut costs etc to remain in the game. also he is placing all his eggs on the nz housing market/ construction staying strong. but as we already see developers are going bust all over the place so there wont be enough of them left soon to maintain the big construction end of the market there this part of construction will decline
    Agreed!!

    I think a lot of people forget that the Central Bank interest rate is not specifically for Housing. Tho Low interest rates continue, they are actually a byproduct of Central Banks around the world trying to protect businesses/Economy from a collapse. This was done by lowering their funding costs. Allowing more time to pay back debt.

    One of the other functions of Interest rates is to control imports/export of a given country.. Higher the dollar is in a country, the more people tend to import. But usually drops the demands for their products.. The lower the rate is, the more countries export, but obviously people stop importing as much due to costs.

    This control is done via the dollar/exchange rate. Which can be influenced via interest rates. But by increasing/decreasing interest rates you are able to keep the country competitive in the global market place.

    Now lets take the extreme example of the AUD dropping to 1AUD to 2NZD.. (New Zealand exports a lot to Australia. They are one of our major trading partners)

    Central bank will need to react.Their mandate is stability, and need to maintain the order of things so to speak.Hence will cut the interest rate to keep the country competitive.. that is why the whole world cut interest rates when the Fed did.. to maintain competitive advantages in the market place. Without such actions the local Economy would suffer.
    Last edited by NeverQuestion; 16-03-2019 at 12:07 PM.

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