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20-09-2018, 08:40 AM
#4541
Originally Posted by BlackPeter
I guess depending on your individual believes might either "Black Monday", "Blue Monday" or "Golden Monday" be a suitable thread name for a discussion about dope companies. Personally though I would think that it would be more appropriate to create a separate thread for this. Hard to find the dope under all the doomsday news - and not everybody looking for bad economical news might be interested in this particular discussion.
chill to weed bro its the future or is the europia of weed stock is highly relevant to pointers of a black monday enthusiam is it not or is it just these big disruptors offer so much money looking ahead that explains the phenomenal gains? who knows for sure eh
one step ahead of the herd
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20-09-2018, 09:56 AM
#4542
there has been a thread for a while"Medicinal Marijuana" mainly aus stocks.
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20-09-2018, 07:20 PM
#4543
treasury yields broke above 3% suggests a move to 3.20 i reckon , still no need to worry as stocks historically have rallied initially on rising rates.
see the option action in feye for the 28th massive someone thinks things a going up so i scooped some up see what happens a in the next week.
oh but the spread stayed the same and there the fed meeting next week might narrow more?
one step ahead of the herd
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21-09-2018, 05:02 PM
#4544
Well today was a day of two halves. I much prefered the morning trading trend!
I hope Monday is a happy day.
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21-09-2018, 05:35 PM
#4545
Originally Posted by Timesurfer
Well today was a day of two halves. I much prefered the morning trading trend!
I hope Monday is a happy day.
really? maybe if you were buying.
NZX50 index hit a low at 2PM and skyrocketed afterwards.
NZX5021-09-18.JPG
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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21-09-2018, 06:27 PM
#4546
My stocks must have been popular in the morning buy .. they dropped after lunch. A slight bounce at the end of the day leaving me about break even for the day.
On the bright side it did provide a buy oportunity to grab a few more.
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21-09-2018, 10:46 PM
#4547
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY
Here is Bill Strong talking about the biggest short opportunity he’s ever seen. Australian and Canadian banks have funded a massive credit cycle bubble in real estate.
Australian banks have 2/3 of assets in mortgages, and no provisioning in bad loans because there aren’t any bad loans. When real estate prices are rising no one is going to default. They borrow money on equity on property to make interest payments.
Why now? Three things - rising interest rates, regulatory provisions re foreign buyers and interest only loans and Royal Commission.
So how do people afford to buy? Rules bent to borrow money to afford to buy a property that people can’t afford. You can’t get prices that high with a reasonable of set of standards for mortgages. Royal Commission has found large scale liar loans – 1/3 loan documents inaccurate and significant bribery for acceptance of fraudulent loans.
Banks are 2½ times book value, almost can’t get much higher. Banks leveraged 25 to 1 with no loan loss provision. Shorting is very risky but this is a low risk short opportunity. It’s an asymmetry in risk reward which you almost never see in shorting, not much risk of going higher. A very profitable short that doesn’t have much risk.
The problem will get solved by tighter lending standards and that’s the real killer for the Australian housing market. Tighter lending = lower house prices. Housing markets are not about the supply and demand of houses. It’s about the supply of credit. The credit spigot is getting turned off because of embarrassing testimony. We expect to see non-performing loans spike.
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21-09-2018, 11:32 PM
#4548
Originally Posted by moka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY
Here is Bill Strong talking about the biggest short opportunity he’s ever seen. Australian and Canadian banks have funded a massive credit cycle bubble in real estate.
Australian banks have 2/3 of assets in mortgages, and no provisioning in bad loans because there aren’t any bad loans. When real estate prices are rising no one is going to default. They borrow money on equity on property to make interest payments.
Why now? Three things - rising interest rates, regulatory provisions re foreign buyers and interest only loans and Royal Commission.
So how do people afford to buy? Rules bent to borrow money to afford to buy a property that people can’t afford. You can’t get prices that high with a reasonable of set of standards for mortgages. Royal Commission has found large scale liar loans – 1/3 loan documents inaccurate and significant bribery for acceptance of fraudulent loans.
Banks are 2½ times book value, almost can’t get much higher. Banks leveraged 25 to 1 with no loan loss provision. Shorting is very risky but this is a low risk short opportunity. It’s an asymmetry in risk reward which you almost never see in shorting, not much risk of going higher. A very profitable short that doesn’t have much risk.
The problem will get solved by tighter lending standards and that’s the real killer for the Australian housing market. Tighter lending = lower house prices. Housing markets are not about the supply and demand of houses. It’s about the supply of credit. The credit spigot is getting turned off because of embarrassing testimony. We expect to see non-performing loans spike.
Antipodean version of subprime!?
It scary the way he talks about it and he just could be right. But he could be wrong too.
I will refrain from taking long positions in the Aussie banks, but I wont be shorting them just yet either.
If you were too consider doing so then long dated put options might be the way but not for me thanks.
I tend to think the Aussie govt would assist and prevent meltdown esp in their own country
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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22-09-2018, 06:16 AM
#4549
Originally Posted by moka
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0lrdxpKPocY
Here is Bill Strong talking about the biggest short opportunity he’s ever seen. Australian and Canadian banks have funded a massive credit cycle bubble in real estate.
Australian banks have 2/3 of assets in mortgages, and no provisioning in bad loans because there aren’t any bad loans. When real estate prices are rising no one is going to default. They borrow money on equity on property to make interest payments.
Why now? Three things - rising interest rates, regulatory provisions re foreign buyers and interest only loans and Royal Commission.
So how do people afford to buy? Rules bent to borrow money to afford to buy a property that people can’t afford. You can’t get prices that high with a reasonable of set of standards for mortgages. Royal Commission has found large scale liar loans – 1/3 loan documents inaccurate and significant bribery for acceptance of fraudulent loans.
Banks are 2½ times book value, almost can’t get much higher. Banks leveraged 25 to 1 with no loan loss provision. Shorting is very risky but this is a low risk short opportunity. It’s an asymmetry in risk reward which you almost never see in shorting, not much risk of going higher. A very profitable short that doesn’t have much risk.
The problem will get solved by tighter lending standards and that’s the real killer for the Australian housing market. Tighter lending = lower house prices. Housing markets are not about the supply and demand of houses. It’s about the supply of credit. The credit spigot is getting turned off because of embarrassing testimony. We expect to see non-performing loans spike.
plenty of people have predicted the crash of the aus property market and has never happened....
great week for markets and the traditional spooky months of august , sept havnt been to bad , im thinking we will see a melt up into year end as funds chase there returns , that is the ones lagging will chase hard. also a positive is mid terms elections usually end up provide a good year see what happens eh.
how about that fireeye its moving the options were looking for a move by the 28th expiry so its started.
one step ahead of the herd
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22-09-2018, 06:17 AM
#4550
Originally Posted by jonu
If this is where the marijuana trade is headed I'm pleased NZ is not charging ahead. Look at all the unintended consequences.
wonder if people said this when alcohol was introduced and look now its so socially accepted and promoted and also has plenty of unintended consequences
one step ahead of the herd
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