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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #8501
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Reserve Bank would rather do 'too much':

    Home loan rates could get as low as 1.5 per cent as the Reserve Bank throws its weight behind stimulating the economy

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/300...to-regret-that


    wow great strategy from the RBNZ with mortgage rates this low buying a house will be way cheaper than renting. they will stimulate the construction industry big time as house building demand will soar and all the downstream businesses of this. rents might even drop as less rental property demand as no immigration.
    Do you think so though, bull? The COL tried and failed big time to build a lot of houses. What says the private sector will do any better? I don't know the ins and outs of why it was such a fail, but I guess the RMA, consenting, ability to free up suitable land, not enough skilled labour (exacerbated now with covid stopping foreign workers coming in), not enough unskilled labour, not enough young ones out there interested or being encouraged to get into the industry (I'm only guessing here). It takes a long time to turn these things around. I don't imagine money was an issue on the Kiwibuild front, but unfortunately it was still a massive fail and probably not a bad lesson for the government...will be interesting to see what they will do about the underlying issues, else we are going to have massive social issues going forward.

  2. #8502
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    Given the current accelerating momentum, there is very little they can do about the issue now. Even replacing the RMA with something more developer friendly, is not going to be enough. House prices are rocketing ahead, and the average NZer who feels that they are winning on the backs of these rises, would never allow a government to undermine their investment. Aside from a crash, I can't see an effective intervention that any government could make.

  3. #8503
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    Labour has won big, but now the real work starts

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...al-work-starts

    Labour has promised a big infrastructure building program. But how it is rolled out and what the priorities are remains to be seen

    im hoping they enable the kiwisaver , super fund to help , will mean more projects can be done why rates are low , makes them all viable.


    In summary the article says

    The question will be whether Ardern is prepared to spend her political capital to do what needs to be done. John Key wasn’t. It will be a mark of leadership if she does







    Last edited by bull....; 18-10-2020 at 07:39 AM.
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  4. #8504
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Labour has won big, but now the real work starts

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...al-work-starts

    Labour has promised a big infrastructure building program. But how it is rolled out and what the priorities are remains to be seen

    im hoping they enable the kiwisaver , super fund to help , will mean more projects can be done why rates are low , makes them all viable.


    In summary the article says

    The question will be whether Ardern is prepared to spend her political capital to do what needs to be done. John Key wasn’t. It will be a mark of leadership if she does







    Won’t enabling kiwisaver funds etc to help just lower returns ti Kiwisaver members
    “What the wise man does in the beginning, the fool does in the end”

  5. #8505
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Won’t enabling kiwisaver funds etc to help just lower returns ti Kiwisaver members
    no , the funds invest based on a acceptable rate of return ie public / private partnerships etc .. grant robinson was doing some work on this last term so lets hope he actually does it
    bull
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  6. #8506
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    I think its more likely the "Superfund" will play a part in this ,not so much your average punter in a Kiwisaver scheme ?

  7. #8507
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    Because Kiwibuild was a roaring success. Your kiwi saver and super fund dreams will meet the same spectacular end for the same reasons.

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    Kainga Ora is really starting to pump out the housing. If the Government leads from the front by supplying large numbers of well built warm dry housing at competitive prices (rather than bashing private landlords) the market will settle and the long term future for New Zealand will improve.

  9. #8509
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    How's everyone feeling at the mo with the market. I've got a feeling we have maybe
    one more good week before we see a slide again. The u.s is so close to elections now somethings got to give.
    Just feels a little like January where it lures you into a false sense of security then boom.
    Thinking things will start to bounce in December. Only time will tell I guess 🙂

  10. #8510
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Labour has won big, but now the real work starts

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/pol...al-work-starts

    Labour has promised a big infrastructure building program. But how it is rolled out and what the priorities are remains to be seen

    im hoping they enable the kiwisaver , super fund to help , will mean more projects can be done why rates are low , makes them all viable.


    In summary the article says

    The question will be whether Ardern is prepared to spend her political capital to do what needs to be done. John Key wasn’t. It will be a mark of leadership if she does








    More large scale borrowing to cover the gaping hole Twyford failed so miserably to make slightest impression on ?

    When Govt are up their ears in large creative hoc by $100 Bills, whats another 5 or 10 or so to add to the growing red ink pile ?
    Last edited by nztx; 18-10-2020 at 10:23 PM.
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    How's everyone feeling at the mo with the market. I've got a feeling we have maybe
    one more good week before we see a slide again. The u.s is so close to elections now somethings got to give.
    Just feels a little like January where it lures you into a false sense of security then boom.
    Thinking things will start to bounce in December. Only time will tell I guess ��

    We're out of the current round Div season, but then lots of loose $'s out there looking for a more rewarding home than the banks
    added to, by proceeds of a couple of Take Out bids coming up

    Possibly more pressure on a limited number of reasonable equities could see SP rises and Div yields flattening further

    Uniquely positioned Co's with reported increased bottom lines are likely to be equally attractive

    No CGT under Ardern's leadership should bode well for further advances in prices

    In recent weeks & months, one would have to have been fairly unlucky to be out of the money
    touching any of most of the targets on a dartboard
    ... the fine art of sniffing out debits & credits hidden under the carpet can pay dividends ...

  12. #8512
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    Quote Originally Posted by nztx View Post
    We're out of the current round Div season, but then lots of loose $'s out there looking for a more rewarding home than the banks
    added to, by proceeds of a couple of Take Out bids coming up

    Possibly more pressure on a limited number of reasonable equities could see SP rises and Div yields flattening further

    Uniquely positioned Co's with reported increased bottom lines are likely to be equally attractive

    No CGT under Ardern's leadership should bode well for further advances in prices

    In recent weeks & months, one would have to have been fairly unlucky to be out of the money
    touching any of most of the targets on a dartboard
    My thinking is its the u.s market which will affect the global market. They are still supercharged and artificially so. If they pop in the stimulus it may hold out a little longer

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    How's everyone feeling at the mo with the market. I've got a feeling we have maybe
    one more good week before we see a slide again. The u.s is so close to elections now somethings got to give.
    Just feels a little like January where it lures you into a false sense of security then boom.
    Thinking things will start to bounce in December. Only time will tell I guess ��
    What gives you the feeling there is just one more good week?

  14. #8514
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    Quote Originally Posted by dobby41 View Post
    What gives you the feeling there is just one more good week?
    Usually the accumulated bad/depressing news pops out of the woodworkl after each election.
    Last edited by Hoop; 19-10-2020 at 08:58 AM.

  15. #8515
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    More to do with the u.s elections. Nzs doing OK but the u.s has such a strong effect on the rest of the worlds markets

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    The US500 lost all its gains in the last couple of hours, and more.

    However, my mate says its only a 4th wave (corrective) and we should be looking out for the 5th.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  17. #8517
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    3400 is key level to watch for support
    bull
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  18. #8518
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dlownz View Post
    More to do with the u.s elections. Nzs doing OK but the u.s has such a strong effect on the rest of the worlds markets
    No disagree...The Treasury puts out their compulsory fiscal responsible (as required by the Public Finance Act) Pre-election Economic and Fiscal Update and that's it until after the elections...That update was released one month before the elections and that data is 2019-2020 financial year, the forecasts were updated as far back as mid August...thats a long time and both good and bad news has accumulated since then....

    "...NZ's doing OK..." As with the rest of the world NZ has been considerably damaged economically..as with most other countries NZ has been forced to lower interests to zero or below, let house (property) prices rise rapidly to un-affordable levels so to create a wealth reservoir for Home owners, flood the markets with printed money, give money to the public and companies via wage subsidies etc..This is the recommended action to prevent a depression....Does that seem NZ is doing OK, might be to you Dlownz, but not me...Have a read of the Treasury report..It's forecast is gloomy e.g unemployment to peak at 7.8% in the March 2022 quarter.

    I do agree that US has a strong effect on the World in general

    Ref:
    https://www.treasury.govt.nz/system/files/2020-09/prefu20.pdf (183 pages)
    https://www.treasury.govt.nz/publica...nance-act-html
    Last edited by Hoop; 19-10-2020 at 05:24 PM.

  19. #8519
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    The US500 lost all its gains in the last couple of hours, and more.

    However, my mate says its only a 4th wave (corrective) and we should be looking out for the 5th.
    Please, please don't listen to Elliotician's. I have wasted too much time with EW theory. It's beautiful when it works, especially when we have Fibonacci confluence but it's incredibly subjective and esoteric at best. When we are given 'alternate counts' it's akin to saying price will go up or price will go down.
    Last edited by causecelebre; 20-10-2020 at 09:28 AM.

  20. #8520
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    Quote Originally Posted by causecelebre View Post
    Please, please don't listen to Elliotician's. I have wasted too much time with EW theory. It's beautiful when it works, especially when we have Fibonacci confluence but it's incredibly subjective and esoteric at best. When we are given 'alternate counts' it's akin to saying price will go up or price will go down.
    thanks for the concern
    subjective and esoteric are where beauty lies
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

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