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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #6031
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    tesla up another 15% lol these momentum surges are insane haha
    "Insane" is the right word for hype. Now 21% down. I assume you changed after posting this immediately from long to short - did you?
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  2. #6032
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    Quote Originally Posted by Timesurfer View Post
    I am not sure it is that simple.
    For instance, trees keep growing but we have set up our mills so that they only process small logs!
    Not that local mills compete too well with high log prices so forest owners don’t look after them and then when the international market crashes we suddenly have no local option.
    I haven’t noticed the overseas owners being too afraid to ramp harvesting right down when it suits them.

    However the local MDF plant is reportedly suffering little from the China situation with plenty of orders coming through still. If we weren’t a third world country we would not be sending any logs off shore unprocessed.
    I can only pass on the comments from the GM who I have dealt with for over 20 years - one of those straight up individuals and not one to suffer fools easily.

    They allow the trees to grow not to be harvested in NZ but to be exported later when prices are right.

    Asked him why NZ exports so much of our logs, he has a simple reply - what are NZ radiata pine good for? They are not high value timber which can be used for furniture or flooring so further processing in NZ at our high costs simply do not make sense.

    This is what happens when investments are made with short term horizons.

    I was in Cambodia a few years ago and the government there was planting teak which takes 50 years to 75 years to reach maturity! Will never ever happen in NZ!

  3. #6033
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    I can only pass on the comments from the GM who I have dealt with for over 20 years - one of those straight up individuals and not one to suffer fools easily.

    They allow the trees to grow not to be harvested in NZ but to be exported later when prices are right.

    Asked him why NZ exports so much of our logs, he has a simple reply - what are NZ radiata pine good for? They are not high value timber which can be used for furniture or flooring so further processing in NZ at our high costs simply do not make sense.

    This is what happens when investments are made with short term horizons.

    I was in Cambodia a few years ago and the government there was planting teak which takes 50 years to 75 years to reach maturity! Will never ever happen in NZ!
    I agree with you about radiata being rubbish timber and would rather see a more visionary approach. But we in NZ aren’t real good at seeing past a quick buck which is why we sell our fruit trees to places like South America that will never make our locally produced fruit redundant.

    That said, someone must be doing something with the trees we export (like making pallets?) or as they are locally, making MDF (which another boat load of leaves today for Japan).

    On the bright side for local timber exporters - to add to the Chinese related virus issues you also now have Australia looking to ditch a bunch of fire damaged trees before they become bug infested too.

  4. #6034
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    That said, someone must be doing something with the trees we export (like making pallets?) or as they are locally, making MDF (which another boat load of leaves today for Japan).
    And paper, perhaps? After all, it was the abundance of radiata pine planted in the central North Island that was the impetus to build Tasman's plant at Kawerau and NZ Forest Products' at Kinleith all those years ago.

  5. #6035
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    us markets approaching key targets 30 k dow
    one step ahead of the herd

  6. #6036
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    The epidemic has negatively impacted the overall China economy, especially the retail and service sectors,” said Wu in a conference call after the results. “While demand for goods and services is there, the means of production in the economy has been hampered by the delayed opening of offices, factories and schools after the Lunar New Year’s holiday.”

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...d=premium-asia

    from alibaba results
    one step ahead of the herd

  7. #6037
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    At this stage black monday only for NZ. potential for double top or trading range developing
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #6038
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    Record number of call options bought last week in US ...whatever that signals
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  9. #6039
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Record number of call options bought last week in US ...whatever that signals
    Normally very bullish.

  10. #6040
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    SP500 consolidating 3391 -3354
    one step ahead of the herd

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