Black Monday

[Valuegrowth]

It seems food, hotel and travel sector looks buoyant even in 2018.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/hotel...062338395.html

Hotelier IHG room revenue rises on strong demand in China

https://financialtribune.com/article...wth-in-q1-2018

Strong Air Passenger Growth in Q1 2018

https://www.thenational.ae/business/...ravel-1.727319

Middle East air passenger traffic grows 10.7% in March on strong Asia travel

[Valuegrowth]

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-b...-idUSKBN1I23CP

BP says still sees oil at $50-$60/bbl in 2018 as shale output surges

https://www.reuters.com/article/usa-...-idUSL1N1S90MK

U.S. drillers add oil rigs for fifth straight week -Baker Hughes

[Leftfield]

s&p500 clearly doesnt seem to be affecting the nz50 at all if you look at the charts , nz50 nearly at new highs , asx nearly at new highs , europe heading back to highs etc.

Yeah interesting...... I have a pet theory that NZX is now a lot more independent of the gyrations in the S&P and therefore less volatile.

I put it down to the steadying influence of Kiwi Saver funds, ACC and the NZ Superannuation fund etc, all having much bigger stakes in NZ companies. I see NZX as a relatively safe 'emerging' little sharemarket.

However, my theory is yet to be tested in a major S&P slump...... so watching with interest.

[bull....]

Yeah interesting...... I have a pet theory that NZX is now a lot more independent of the gyrations in the S&P and therefore less volatile.

I put it down to the steadying influence of Kiwi Saver funds, ACC and the NZ Superannuation fund etc, all having much bigger stakes in NZ companies. I see NZX as a relatively safe 'emerging' little sharemarket.

However, my theory is yet to be tested in a major S&P slump...... so watching with interest.

dont disagree that the funds in nz have smoothed things but disagree that nzx is independant of wall st.

go to anz securities
https://www.anzsecurities.co.nz/dire...uickQuote=+Go+

go to charts from the dropdown box , plot, then go to supercharts (spy is the s&p500 etf ) and then compare it to nz50 index , you will observe that nz50 still pretty much mirrors the us market.

old saying goes when wall st sneezes everyone catches a cold

[Leftfield]

dont disagree that the funds in nz have smoothed things but disagree that nzx is independant of wall st.
go to charts from the dropdown box , plot, then go to supercharts (spy is the s&p500 etf ) and then compare it to nz50 index , you will observe that nz50 still pretty much mirrors the us market.

old saying goes when wall st sneezes everyone catches a cold

Thanks Bull - I've done your homework and agree that's some correlation!!
Oh well, back to the drawing board and from now on I'll be much more paranoid!!

[Balance]

Thanks Bull - I've done your homework and agree that's some correlation!!
Oh well, back to the drawing board and from now on I'll be much more paranoid!!

NZX has always been a low 'beta' market.

Wall St goes up 100%, NZ goes up 50%.

Wall St drops 50%, NZ drops 25%.

Good market to be in if you like lower volatility and if you can avoid the rubbish that NZX is famous for - back door listings, IPOs like Intueri, Feltex, CBL, Tegel, Metro Glass, Wynyard, GeoP - unfortunately the list goes on and on!

[Leftfield]

Thanks Balance - much more reassuring!

The other thing that helps me be less paranoid (and sleep better) is that the index is an 'averaging machine' and there will always be stocks that outperform the 'average.' Best to stick to those stocks (if we can find them.)

Attachment 9661

hint...hint....

ps I avoid IPO's and this has served me well.

[bull....]

poo just shot over our target

[Valuegrowth]

There could be currency and commodity volatility as well during 2018. Those who hedge correctly could benefit and those who fail to hedge correctly could lose. Even bond market could create some problems.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-pension-giant

Plenty of Bond Turmoil to Come, Says Australia Pension Giant

https://www.valuewalk.com/2018/05/10...0-bull-market/

Why The Masses Missed The 10-Year S&P 500 Bull Market

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/com...-rhb-thinks-so

Time to switch to defensive consumer stocks? RHB thinks so.

[thestg]

A year or two ago I read on ST the following about the Dow Jones recovery rate:

“Rebound after a market fall is on average 1.4 times from the bottom, of the time it took to fall.”

This year there was a correction on 30^th January and the low was 23^rd March.

Therefore so long as the index doesn’t go below 23,533.20 between now & June then will we see it back above 26,400 on 3^rd June?