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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #8361
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not quite so sure about your correction forecast. Real Estate market is a simple formula with high demand and low supply. Last time I checked they didn't make any more land, but the returnees are just piling up at our borders. I think in the last 12 months it was an addition of more than 70k (mainly) returning Kiwis increasing the NZ population. That's nearly 30k more houses required (given our average house occupation rate) we need. The government promised 10k per year but delivered only a few hundred. Not quite enough, if you see what I mean.

    As long as we need a house, lots of ugly boarded fences for privacy and a eight to tenth of an acre for every 2.4 additional people, the upwards spiral for real estate prices will continue. Still another 1 million Kiwis abroad who might want to return (many do) - and then there is a basically unlimited pool of Australians who may and might come as well.
    Don't forget many other nations that see little old NZ as a great retirement spot or place to run their business from >>>

    Going of R.E NZ -25736 res listings for sale sections,houses,units etc (many double listed) - rentals 25736

    So yeah we are well short of property ... I'm sure if we opened are borders to US-Europe will could have those filled within short timeframe ...world is awash in FEAR
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not quite so sure about your correction forecast. Real Estate market is a simple formula with high demand and low supply. Last time I checked they didn't make any more land, but the returnees are just piling up at our borders. I think in the last 12 months it was an addition of more than 70k (mainly) returning Kiwis increasing the NZ population. That's nearly 30k more houses required (given our average house occupation rate) we need. The government promised 10k per year but delivered only a few hundred. Not quite enough, if you see what I mean.

    As long as we need a house, lots of ugly boarded fences for privacy and a eight to tenth of an acre for every 2.4 additional people, the upwards spiral for real estate prices will continue. Still another 1 million Kiwis abroad who might want to return (many do) - and then there is a basically unlimited pool of Australians who may and might come as well.
    I hear what you are saying, and real-estate is the only investment game in town when it comes to nz.
    We know some kiwis are returning from overseas but overall immigration numbers are well down since Covid. Govt publish these figures, they are well down this year. Overall numbers are negative every month since April. Remember our boarders are closed to all except returning kiwis.
    Then we need to factor in rising unemployment next year, this will apply mortgage stress to those effected. Middle of next year should tell us where housing market is headed.

    https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/
    Last edited by ynot; 14-09-2020 at 07:14 AM.

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    Int thanks.Far more leaving than arriving in that timeframe.

    https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/

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    final fed meeting this week before the US election so this will add to a interesting week shaping up from a technical standpoint also. watching 3330 on the s&p500 and the quarterly bars
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Int thanks.Far more leaving than arriving in that timeframe.

    https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/

    Passenger stats probably don't tell you much about immigration/emigration?

  6. #8366
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Int thanks.Far more leaving than arriving in that timeframe.

    https://www.customs.govt.nz/covid-19...er-statistics/
    Interesting - isn't it? However not consistent with the data from Immigration New Zealand (admittedly, not exactly the same timeframe - the data below are 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020):

    Annual
    Year ended June 2020 (compared with year ended June 2019) provisional estimates were:

    migrant arrivals – 153,900 ( 1,500), up 8.7 percent
    migrant departures – 74,500 ( 600), down 16.6 percent
    annual net migration gain – 79,400 ( 1,600), up from 52,300 ( 200).
    For migrant arrivals in the June 2020 year, New Zealand citizens were the largest group with 45,500 ( 700) arrivals.
    from: https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...tion-june-2020

    Not quite sure i can explain the difference ... but an immigration gain of nearly 80,000 according to stats NZ does not seem to fit with a loss as your customs numbers seem to imply.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Interesting - isn't it? However not consistent with the data from Immigration New Zealand (admittedly, not exactly the same timeframe - the data below are 1 July 2019 to 30 June 2020):



    from: https://www.stats.govt.nz/informatio...tion-june-2020

    Not quite sure i can explain the difference ... but an immigration gain of nearly 80,000 according to stats NZ does not seem to fit with a loss as your customs numbers seem to imply.
    On a second thought ....

    Customs numbers obviously include lots of leaving tourists and short term stayers, while immigration numbers only count (I suppose) residents and long term stayers.

    This might be an explanation for the difference. Now - who is going to push the house prices up? It is not the tourists, isn't it?
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    On a second thought ....

    Customs numbers obviously include lots of leaving tourists and short term stayers, while immigration numbers only count (I suppose) residents and long term stayers.

    This might be an explanation for the difference. Now - who is going to push the house prices up? It is not the tourists, isn't it?
    That's easy! First Home Buyers with another Government backed Free cash scheme that looks great! But does nothing to help housing affordability because everyone ups the price by the same amount because they know the buyer is "Good for it"

    Reserve Bank has already dropped the LVRs so that have done their bit already!

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    Hi BP,

    At a quick glance significant proportion of the 80,000 net gain is due to gains made pre March 2020. Keep in mind 80,000 net gain was for the year to June '20 so includes a chunk or pre-covid net inflows that contribute the most. The months July 19 to Feb 20 have a roughly monthly gain of between 6-10,000 people. However if you take April May and June combined the net gain is only 1590 across those three months. Average of 530 a month gain. If we say the rest of the year to June 2021 follows a similar pattern we will have a net gain of 6360 for the year end compared with 80000 the year just been. Drastic if you ask me but maybe Ive been working all day and have missed something (likely).

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    Quote Originally Posted by Biscuit View Post
    Passenger stats probably don't tell you much about immigration/emigration?
    Actually you are correct. Average 400 per day arrivals are returning kiwis. 600 departing a day are probably visa holders etc.
    Last edited by ynot; 14-09-2020 at 07:00 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverQuestion View Post
    That's easy! First Home Buyers with another Government backed Free cash scheme that looks great!
    ???.......

  12. #8372
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    Quote Originally Posted by petty View Post
    Hi BP,

    At a quick glance significant proportion of the 80,000 net gain is due to gains made pre March 2020. Keep in mind 80,000 net gain was for the year to June '20 so includes a chunk or pre-covid net inflows that contribute the most. The months July 19 to Feb 20 have a roughly monthly gain of between 6-10,000 people. However if you take April May and June combined the net gain is only 1590 across those three months. Average of 530 a month gain. If we say the rest of the year to June 2021 follows a similar pattern we will have a net gain of 6360 for the year end compared with 80000 the year just been. Drastic if you ask me but maybe Ive been working all day and have missed something (likely).
    I guess just lets lean back, wait and see.

    You are right that the net migration gain in Q2 2020 was rather small (compared to the full year), but this came with extreme border restrictions and the international carrier network basically having been shutdown. On top of that we had full lockdown for 6 weeks and we still had a lot of people desperately trying to get as well to leave the country and get to wherever their home is. I don't think (and hope) that Q2 2020 will be a particular suitable data point to extrapolate migration gains to the next full year.

    I do give you that the lions share of the 80k migration gain (Q3 2019 to Q2 2020) is pre-Covid ... i.e. we don't really know based only on these data what the future will bring.

    I still think that the pressure for overseas Kiwis to return home to our safe shores will be for some time much stronger than the desire of Kiwis living here to see the scary world out there in person. This is not just related to Covid, but as well to the ugly face of right wing politics which is raising its head not just in the US and in Europe, but in many places overseas. Let's not forget - it is not just the US which is implementing a "us first" policy - which automatically puts anybody who is foreign / different second. Well, Kiwis are foreign everywhere in the world but here, i.e. they will (as well as other foreigners) feel the pressure to leave wherever they live.

    As long as NZ is a rather safe place to live I would expect the immigration pressure from returning Kiwis to increase for some time to come. We better have some places for them to live when they arrive at our shores.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    ...
    As long as we need a house, lots of ugly boarded fences for privacy and a eight to tenth of an acre for every 2.4 additional people, the upwards spiral for real estate prices will continue. Still another 1 million Kiwis abroad who might want to return (many do) - and then there is a basically unlimited pool of Australians who may and might come as well.
    Fences are not only needed for privacy but as part of security measures. While NZ is a safer haven in the epidemic, we do have a threat from theft and burglary. It seems to be a growing problem too. However on international comparisons with all things considered I agree that NZ will continue to appeal to both returning Kiwis and International immigrants.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/cri...research-finds

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bjauck View Post
    Fences are not only needed for privacy but as part of security measures. While NZ is a safer haven in the epidemic, we do have a threat from theft and burglary. It seems to be a growing problem too. However on international comparisons with all things considered I agree that NZ will continue to appeal to both returning Kiwis and International immigrants.

    https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/cri...research-finds
    Not really the right thread, but no - the only thing these ugly 6 ft high board fences popping up in many new subdivisions do is protect the burglars. Much easier for them to break into a house if their activity is concealed by a boarded fence.
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not really the right thread, but no - the only thing these ugly 6 ft high board fences popping up in many new subdivisions do is protect the burglars. Much easier for them to break into a house if their activity is concealed by a boarded fence.
    A bit of a tangent but increased crime could be a consequence of the covid recession.

    Having recently had a theft during daylight hours with three people on the property, we have been reviewing security. We had been able to leave doors unlocked when at home. Part of the problem may be that our semi-rural area is affected by recent Auckland urban sprawl - with more traffic and cars parked on the road now.

    It does depend on type of fence. if it can stop and slow the opportunist thief, then it helps. If it just provides cover for the crooks as they rob the property, then it is no good. Fencing plus wireless security cameras tied to a phone app is a good combination for those times when the burglar alarm is not activated.

    In a dense subdivision if crooks need to climb over fences it could slow them down with a chance to be spotted by neighbours. Cheap fencing probably would not do the trick.

    https://www.acsgarden.com/articles/o...nd-garden.aspx
    Last edited by Bjauck; 15-09-2020 at 09:19 AM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    Not really the right thread, but no - the only thing these ugly 6 ft high board fences popping up in many new subdivisions do is protect the burglars. Much easier for them to break into a house if their activity is concealed by a boarded fence.
    yeah till they meet my Ridgeback
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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    yeah till they meet my Ridgeback
    Neighbours have a couple of wee yappy terriers (aka Rdigeback snacks!) that alert us to strange people on that side of the section. The neighbours always take their doggies out with them though.

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    last fed meeting before US election and the fed has stated that rates will stay low

    Fed Signals Rates Will Stay Near Zero for at Least Three Years


    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...st-three-years


    of course thats within there horizon and could easliy be extended .... get your income why you can if you believe rates can never rise meaningfully ever again
    Last edited by bull....; 17-09-2020 at 05:09 AM.
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    Note: Navigating the links within this post will be time consuming

    With the FED meeting..the NZ Treasury report already out and the soon to be released NZ GDP numbers,this maybe the time to revisit the Yale University's 4 R's model.

    A fewf months ago I mentioned the 4 R's a lot in my posts, but it seemed back then to have conflicted with the media's position..Media and the market expectations were ahead of the ball game...and you don't fight against the market..
    In saying the above the 4 R's is still a brilliant way to figure out what the Reserve Bank/FED and the Governments are going to do next, and so we can take that crystal ball and make decisions about what to expect in the near future...By now nearly everyone will have observed that most of the Countries in the World are applying very similar Monetary and Fiscal methods..All these methods are contained in Yale's 4R's model...In other words everyone is singing the same song sheet...this makes it easier to "accurately" assume what the Government and Central Banks are going to do next.

    The 4 R's Model are Run...Repair.....Recession.....Recovery...(This link article is 4 months old but it has updated links)
    Contrary to Media and Markets...we are not in economic recovery stage yet!!!....We are in the Recession stage of the 4 R's model..If you want to accurately look forward in your decision-making you have to remind yourself of that.

    Each stage of the 4 R's model has the recommended Fiscal and Monetary actions to help combat a "crisis/aftermath" event...

    While the recovery stage is next..These latest reports out this week has a theme..not as bad as previously predicted and this recession could last longer than previously thought...

    The conflict:..The media and public think we are in recovery based mainly on the v shaped bounce of the Equity markets and businesses reopening after lock down...This is not a change of stage (recovery) but a monetary manipulated and then sentiment fueled positive reaction designed by the repair stage actions ... lowering interest rates flooding the economy with money, rent and eviction freezes, Government support..etc (see more on the Yale University link above)..

    Recovery Stage:...We are not there yet but looking ahead, what will be the Government and Central Banks actions in this stage? ..Too many to list here on this post but here is one to wet your appetite..Bank resources strain (Government to advise/action the halt of Bank dividends to shareholders ...may need money injection into the banking system..etc)..This was telegraphed by Sir John Key's looking forward statement a few months ago...See the links to view the other recommended actions and results of earlier stage actions to date.

    Other links with included links:
    Covid 19 Crisis ..Fiscal Response trackers

    Policy Responses to the Coronavirus Epidemic
    Last edited by Hoop; 17-09-2020 at 08:38 AM.

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    US futures having a bit of a spaz at the moment , dont they like low rates for ever?
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