Black Monday

[value_investor]

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/bu...ors-2018-08-02

Bull market in stocks could be in ‘last innings’ as bears set sights on strongest sectors

I'm not that sold on this, I feel as though we hear about this every year that the market has finally topped out and then it doesn't. Its been a very strong earnings season in the US, not sure what FB has to do with representing the whole market all of a sudden. I still remember the FB IPO at $36 being called overvalued because its a company with nothing behind it. Oh the short term thinking does funny things to your brain.

There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.

Time in the market > Timing the market

[traineeinvestor]

There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.

Time in the market > Timing the market

+1

“Far more money has been lost by investors preparing for corrections, or trying to anticipate corrections, than has been lost in corrections themselves.” – Peter Lynch

I know several people who sold out of my local property market in 2011-3 and have sat on the sidelines paying escalating rents and watching prices continue to climb to the point where they can no longer afford to buy back in. I get a lot of "it can't last," "it's way out of touch with reality" and "it's going to be one hell of a crash when the bubble bursts" whenever we meet up - it started getting repetitive a long time ago. I'm sure that one day the market will go down, possibly by a lot just like it has historically, but it would have to be a return to great depression levels to have justified selling out so early.

[BobbyMorocco]

There are people who have been on the sidelines from 2016, maybe even earlier that have lost out on once in a life time gains with the mentality that once it drops they'll come into it which I don't believe at all.

Have they really lost out on a once in a lifetime gain? Or are they waiting for another (perhaps even better) opportunity to make their gains?

At some point the market will fall and it will rise again. It's likely it will happen several times over the period of a lifetime. Just because the past two years have been good does not mean it won't happen like that again.

If the market begins to roll over tomorrow and loses 30% of its value then once it reaches the bottom those people who have been on the sidelines will be in a very similar position to those that bought and held throughout it all. It's easy to proclaim that the buy and hold strategy is the best when everything is at all time highs.

If we have another GFC type event where approx 40-50% plus is wiped from the market (depending on which market you're looking at) then when it gets to the bottom those people who sat patiently and waited are actually better off than all of those that bought and held. Not to mention they surely would have had considerably less stress in their lives too.

There's a load of different ways to profit from the market, and people will use whatever strategy they think works best for them and their situation but to suggest that these people have missed out on once in a lifetime gains is way off the mark IMO. I believe that unless you're laying on your death bed then there's always another opportunity!

So value_investor what's your strategy? Are you going to take these "once in a lifetime gains" that you've accumulated over the past two years and cash them in now? Or do you plan on cashing them in later? Or perhaps never at all? How do you decide when to take profit and when to sit tight?

[traineeinvestor]

H
So value_investor what's your strategy? Are you going to take these "once in a lifetime gains" that you've accumulated over the past two years and cash them in now? Or do you plan on cashing them in later? Or perhaps never at all? How do you decide when to take profit and when to sit tight?

Most of the time I don't. Not speaking for anyone else, but I mostly focus on cash flows and expectations of longer term dividend/rental growth. It may not be a strategy for producing market-beating returns, but it pays the bills. Down turns are opportunities to top up the portfolio.

As you say, there are many ways to play the markets.

[bull....]

gotta love the us market its rocking , actually it seems everytime trump talks about china and tarriffs it goes up lol perverse eh. anyway seems to be near top of channel now s&p500 abot 10 handles

[BlackPeter]

gotta love the us market its rocking , actually it seems everytime trump talks about china and tarriffs it goes up lol perverse eh. anyway seems to be near top of channel now s&p500 abot 10 handles

Nearly feels like September 2007. Everything is great and only way prices can go is upwards. What can possible go wrong ?

[Joshuatree]

Dont think there is going to be any irrational exuberance this time though before the falls, just the dawning realisation that there is nothing left to prop the mkts up, not even fake news.

[bull....]

Nearly feels like September 2007. Everything is great and only way prices can go is upwards. What can possible go wrong ?

gotta consider earnings are propelling the market , even next years forward earnings dont look unreasonable at 17x for the market not high by traditional standards. also a trillion dollars of buybacks coming too.

thats what some people mis calculated was the strenght of earnings and they sold out way to early

[BlackPeter]

gotta consider earnings are propelling the market , even next years forward earnings dont look unreasonable at 17x for the market not high by traditional standards. also a trillion dollars of buybacks coming too.

thats what some people mis calculated was the strenght of earnings and they sold out way to early

Absolutely - predicting the (past) future is so much easier with the benefit of hindsight ;

[arc]

An "emotional" talking-up of the American market...
Reminds me of the hormonal rush of physical activity a couple of months before lemmings.. do the lemming thing.