Black Monday

[winner69]

rolled over from the top of channel , looks like turkey upset trump

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/08/10/us-m...s-on-edge.html

wonder if phil goff would ban trump speaking in auckland? off topic

"Yesterday, they blamed tariffs - today they'll blame Turkey... Whatever you do, don't blame The Cycle," writes Hedgeye CEO Keith McCullough.

[Valuegrowth]

Don’t blame the cycle

Currencies which had great run over the last 10 years are having correction.

Eg: NZD

[Patient Panda]

Currencies which had great run over the last 10 years are having correction.

Eg: NZD

Its not a correction. Orr could just have easily tightened the OCR and we wouldn’t be seeing this weakening to remotely close to this extent.

[Valuegrowth]

Some say dovish RBNZ and concerns over European bank exposure to Turkey sent NZD/USD lower. Clearly, there was some weakness for NZD. Only thing is petrol prices will go up unless oil drop significantly. On the other hand export sector will benefit. I heard RBNZ is bullish on the economy but left rates at 1.75% until end of 2020.

[stoploss]

Its not a correction. Orr could just have easily tightened the OCR and we wouldn’t be seeing this weakening to remotely close to this extent.

How could he just of easily lifted the OCR , when we are not near the top of the band ?
No point in tightening early Bollard tried that and it didn’t go well ...

[winner69]

How could he just of easily lifted the OCR , when we are not near the top of the band ?
No point in tightening early Bollard tried that and it didn’t go well ...

They need to be ahead of the curve ....not wait until inflation has got out of hand which could result in more hikes than what would have been necessary

[stoploss]

They need to be ahead of the curve ....not wait until inflation has got out of hand which could result in more hikes than what would have been necessary

As I said Bollard tried that first Western economy to lift rates post GFC from memory ...only to turn around and cut ..
With the Aussie property market coming off the boil and looking a bit suspect , Auckland flat I think we have time on our side ... as indicated by the statement on Thursday .
With the current business confidence do you think it’s prudent to get ahead of the curve that might not eventuate ?

[Baa_Baa]

They need to be ahead of the curve ....not wait until inflation has got out of hand which could result in more hikes than what would have been necessary

I think you're way ahead of the curve, do you have some other reason for despising the new RB Govna? Woulda coulda shoulda, it's all speculation, but maybe, might, could be? ... let it unfold as it will.

[Patient Panda]

How could he just of easily lifted the OCR , when we are not near the top of the band ?
No point in tightening early Bollard tried that and it didn’t go well ...

First you have to seriously call into question the way inflation is being measured and the weightings given to various elements of the CPI. Accomodation needs a serious increase in its weighting imo. If this was done you’d see true inflation as higher than currently reported.

Then you have a number of pretty strong inflationary pressures going on..
Large swathes of the working population getting pay rises some of them fairly significant (teachers, nurses..)
Min wage increasing
Petrol price increases both through taxation and low NZD.

They could be in for so some quick hikes when they come or maybe they end up coming sooner than 2020 we will have to wait and see.

Not sure the comment about post GFC bollard can be extrapolated to our very healthy economic state of today.

[Bobdn]

First you have to seriously call into question the way inflation is being measured and the weightings given to various elements of the CPI. Accomodation needs a serious increase in its weighting imo. If this was done you’d see true inflation as higher than currently reported.

Then you have a number of pretty strong inflationary pressures going on..
Large swathes of the working population getting pay rises some of them fairly significant (teachers, nurses..)
Min wage increasing
Petrol price increases both through taxation and low NZD.

They could be in for so some quick hikes when they come or maybe they end up coming sooner than 2020 we will have to wait and see.

Not sure the comment about post GFC bollard can be extrapolated to our very healthy economic state of today.

Yes, inflation is raging at the moment. Throw in accommodation and the absolute biggest drag on the economy, local authority expenditure and the resultant property taxation and other charges, and you'd have a much much bigger inflation rate. My electricity bill has more or less stayed the same over the last 10 years, maybe even reduced a little. My phone and internet bill is as cheap as chips. My local authority rates, however, go up and up and up, over 5% this year alone. Amazing. By hey, inflation is just 1%! LOL