Obviously - this could be a clear sign for overconfidence in the market ... i.e. we are in the last phase of the bull.
I don't remember whether I've seen so far an analysis of how accurate all these predictions are. Obviously - even a broken clock is right twice a day and I expect that the annual bear / bull predictions reach a similar level of accuracy. If we count it as "correct" if the analyst gets the year and the direction right, and if we allow for an average bull cycle of 7 years and a bear cycle of 1 year +/- 6 months, than I'd expect that most experts get it roughly 79% right if they predict another bull year and roughly 21% right if they predict a bear year.
Looks like predicting bull years improves analysts track record ; Not sure however how to assess analysts who correctly predicted 7 of the last 2 downturns ;
From what I've seen so far - there are a handful of (non-lagging) indicators for an emerging bear (like interest rate inversion, unemployment numbers and similar) ... but none of them is perfect and none is able to look further than a handful of months ahead. Nobody can predict whether the bull keeps running for some more years to come.
Last edited by BlackPeter; 20-07-2018 at 05:50 PM.
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"Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)
One would imagine that Facebook has peaked in terms of users.
Both the changes that they keep making to try and squeeze a dollar from the punters and the younger generations who see Facebook as for old people tend to suggest it will eventually go the way of MySpace. Could be wrong, and it won't happen overnight.
On the other hand, if they rebrand quick enough they may gain enough of the Trademe/Ebay/Craigs List market share to remain relevant.
Then there is the news market. It will be interesting to see who takes control of that as newspapers die out and people look for a replacement. Will be a crowdsource replacement like Facebook, or will an online aggregator assume power. Do we want reliable news, tabloid news, or news supplied by those with the deepest pockets.
There are a number of powerplays to be made in the not too distant future in this space I would imagine.
According to Trading Economics Global 1 year milk price has dropped re 12%.
Coffee is down 20% so the cafes and roasters here are doing well margin wise as 99.9% of drinkers are unaware the savings are not being passed on. My cafe says milk and labour are up .
One would imagine that Facebook has peaked in terms of users.
Just anecdotal but I would think it is falling, certainly in terms of medium to heavy users. Couple of years ago all my peeps were on there on a daily basis sharing their days events. Now hardly at all. Some gone to Twitter or snap chat or whatever, some have decided it not private enough and shut down their accounts, it become a bit old hat
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; Not sure however how to assess analysts who correctly predicted 7 of the last 2 downturns 
;
Happy hour Friday
Originally Posted by Timesurfer
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