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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #8421
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    Let's just see who wins.

  2. #8422
    Guru Crypto Crude's Avatar
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    Lol you lot are all crazy as hell...

    Trump is doing an amazing job ...

    Most people arent hoodwinked as much as you all are by mainstream fake news media...
    (Corrupt news media)...

  3. #8423
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    Yeah, if I'm a betting man I would back Trump to win again based on nothing but Americans are mad and crazy
    Or based on the fact that the number of US presidents that didn’t get back in for a second term is a very small list, I’d say your odds are pretty good.

  4. #8424
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hoop View Post
    Note: Navigating the links within this post will be time consuming

    With the FED meeting..the NZ Treasury report already out and the soon to be released NZ GDP numbers,this maybe the time to revisit the Yale University's 4 R's model.

    A fewf months ago I mentioned the 4 R's a lot in my posts, but it seemed back then to have conflicted with the media's position..Media and the market expectations were ahead of the ball game...and you don't fight against the market..
    In saying the above the 4 R's is still a brilliant way to figure out what the Reserve Bank/FED and the Governments are going to do next, and so we can take that crystal ball and make decisions about what to expect in the near future...By now nearly everyone will have observed that most of the Countries in the World are applying very similar Monetary and Fiscal methods..All these methods are contained in Yale's 4R's model...In other words everyone is singing the same song sheet...this makes it easier to "accurately" assume what the Government and Central Banks are going to do next.

    The 4 R's Model are Run...Repair.....Recession.....Recovery...(This link article is 4 months old but it has updated links)
    Contrary to Media and Markets...we are not in economic recovery stage yet!!!....We are in the Recession stage of the 4 R's model..If you want to accurately look forward in your decision-making you have to remind yourself of that.

    Each stage of the 4 R's model has the recommended Fiscal and Monetary actions to help combat a "crisis/aftermath" event...

    While the recovery stage is next..These latest reports out this week has a theme..not as bad as previously predicted and this recession could last longer than previously thought...

    The conflict:..The media and public think we are in recovery based mainly on the v shaped bounce of the Equity markets and businesses reopening after lock down...This is not a change of stage (recovery) but a monetary manipulated and then sentiment fueled positive reaction designed by the repair stage actions ... lowering interest rates flooding the economy with money, rent and eviction freezes, Government support..etc (see more on the Yale University link above)..

    Recovery Stage:...We are not there yet but looking ahead, what will be the Government and Central Banks actions in this stage? ..Too many to list here on this post but here is one to wet your appetite..Bank resources strain (Government to advise/action the halt of Bank dividends to shareholders ...may need money injection into the banking system..etc)..This was telegraphed by Sir John Key's looking forward statement a few months ago...See the links to view the other recommended actions and results of earlier stage actions to date.

    Other links with included links:
    Covid 19 Crisis ..Fiscal Response trackers

    Policy Responses to the Coronavirus Epidemic
    James Bullard St Louis FED president announces full recovery is possible by the end of the year...which suggests the US recovery phase is rapidly underway.
    I think NZ is also leaving the recessionary phase and rapidly entering the recovery phase..
    This shows that the theoretical modelling actions being used during the Run and Repair phases were highly successful and helped to reduce the severity of the Recessionary phase (also stopped the worse case Depression scenario) and quickly moved us into the Recovery phase.
    Don't celebrate yet as the Recovery phase has it's own set of pain..the lagging sectors now start to react to the recessionary pain and overall sectors recovery will be uneven, some damaged Companies will fail, and the Media will be quick to highlight this doom and gloom..This is the time to make sure Banks have enough money to keep the recovery phase momentum moving forward..

    What to expect:..As an investor the best strategy is to identify what recovery phase actions the Government and Reserve Banks will likely use and predict what effect that will have on our investments going forward.

    Yale's 4R's Model outlines the theoretical actions needed during the recovery phase..So far with the first 3 R's the Governments and Central Banks have been rather consistent and have actioned what theory has suggested. The Yale modelling is tracking all countries actions...NZ's actions are interesting.

    It is reasonable to assume the Countries during the fourth R (recovery phase) will follow similar theoretical lines..
    Last edited by Hoop; 25-09-2020 at 10:01 AM.

  5. #8425
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    Some great links and research there Hoop, Thanks for sharing.

  6. #8426
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    NZ market on fire today....(well from my perspective anyway - it appears the NZ50 index not so much when I fact check myself)
    US market tonight, maybe will struggle. As far as I can see we are still in an at least temporary corrective phase over there. Hopefully corrective anyway ;+)
    Last edited by peat; 25-09-2020 at 03:56 PM.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  7. #8427
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    Crypto starting to attract attention for its mostly criminal bias. Talk of some "intervention" going to happen, most likely USA style seizing and removal of accounts.
    Last edited by arc; 29-09-2020 at 08:47 AM.

  8. #8428
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    Quote Originally Posted by arc View Post
    Crypto starting to attract attention for its mostly criminal bias. Talk of some "intervention" going to happen, most likely USA style seizing and removal of accounts.
    Any source, for either point?

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/09/23/jpmo...practices.html

  9. #8429
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    https://www.kitco.com/news/2020-09-2...-all-cash.html

    Markets will see a major correction soon, most likely before the presidential election, said Clem Chambers of InvestorsHub, who has allocated all his holdings into cash.

    “I got a warning from the market about ten days ago…so I cleared the decks because I think it’s highly likely, not absolutely certain, but too likely to be in the markets that we’re going to be in for a crash,”
    Last edited by JBmurc; 30-09-2020 at 09:16 PM.
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  10. #8430
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    President Donald Trump says he has tested positive for coronavirus

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/10/02/pres...ronavirus.html

    futures tanking
    one step ahead of the herd

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