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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #5341
    Speedy Az winner69's Avatar
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    Seems the next few years going to be bad if NZ follows Australia. The main headlines on SMH just now.

    House prices tumble even faster than during the GFC
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...19-p515eb.html

    And this headline is bad but only about tech stocks

    'Reality has to kick in': Ominous warning about high-flying Australian shares
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...19-p515bi.html
    “ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”

  2. #5342
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    NZ has a shortage of houses, Aus has an oversupply. We will be ok and the oversupply in aus will balance out given a bit of time according to John Ryders in his latest newsletter(thread for this).He is quite bullish for the year in fact. Worth a read lots of stats from around the world too.

  3. #5343
    FEAR n GREED JBmurc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    NZ has a shortage of houses, Aus has an oversupply. We will be ok and the oversupply in aus will balance out given a bit of time according to John Ryders in his latest newsletter(thread for this).He is quite bullish for the year in fact. Worth a read lots of stats from around the world too.
    No shortage around here many houses for sale ... it's the price that is the problem.... and why they are still on the market
    And we have one of the tightest rental markets in the country
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  4. #5344
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Seems the next few years going to be bad if NZ follows Australia. The main headlines on SMH just now.

    House prices tumble even faster than during the GFC
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...19-p515eb.html

    And this headline is bad but only about tech stocks

    'Reality has to kick in': Ominous warning about high-flying Australian shares
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...19-p515bi.html
    You should have a look into John Ryders latest newsletter (http://www.globalnews.co.nz/). He reccons the global economy will come later this year out of stall modus and expects the first green shoots soon. US housing market strong, Australian housing market might still drop (until demand catches up with lots of ex-speculative supply) but he certainly does not predict a crash for the NZ housing market. Interest rates down, continuous demand (more people) and low new house building rates make it unlikely for NZ house prices to follow Australia.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  5. #5345
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    You should have a look into John Ryders latest newsletter (http://www.globalnews.co.nz/). He reccons the global economy will come later this year out of stall modus and expects the first green shoots soon. US housing market strong, Australian housing market might still drop (until demand catches up with lots of ex-speculative supply) but he certainly does not predict a crash for the NZ housing market. Interest rates down, continuous demand (more people) and low new house building rates make it unlikely for NZ house prices to follow Australia.
    hey thanks for the summary BP
    I always read his newsletter but have yet to do so at this stage - I am quite busy at the moment.

    But my charting reviews have made me start to turn bullish again recently, and I was looking for a thread opposite to 'Black Monday' but couldn't find one.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  6. #5346
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    hey thanks for the summary BP
    I always read his newsletter but have yet to do so at this stage - I am quite busy at the moment.

    But my charting reviews have made me start to turn bullish again recently, and I was looking for a thread opposite to 'Black Monday' but couldn't find one.
    I use this thread to make some investment decisions. And so far, so good.

    Markets in the short term are driven by greed, fear and hope.

    This thread 'Black Monday' aptly reaffirms what any psychologist knows - Fear is the most powerful emotion of the three in terms of impact on the market.

    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

    As Warren Buffet stated : "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
    Last edited by Balance; 19-03-2019 at 04:22 PM.

  7. #5347
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Fed holds line on rates, says no more hikes ahead this year

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/fed-...unchanged.html

    confirmed back to low rates for much longer , bond yields tumbling, even in nz makes those utilities yields in nz look so good
    one step ahead of the herd

  8. #5348
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Fed holds line on rates, says no more hikes ahead this year

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/fed-...unchanged.html

    confirmed back to low rates for much longer , bond yields tumbling, even in nz makes those utilities yields in nz look so good
    Fed sees strong economy = rate hikes are good news, stocks soar.

    Fed sees slowing growth = no rate hikes which is good news, stocks soar.

    Whatever the Fed says or does, and however well or not well the economy is doing, it's great news.

  9. #5349
    ShareTrader Legend bull....'s Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Fed sees strong economy = rate hikes are good news, stocks soar.

    Fed sees slowing growth = no rate hikes which is good news, stocks soar.

    Whatever the Fed says or does, and however well or not well the economy is doing, it's great news.
    actually the fed raising rates and saying they were going to keep raising them was a big cause of the big sell off end of last yr , since they have reversed there position the market has rallied.
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #5350
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    actually the fed raising rates and saying they were going to keep raising them was a big cause of the big sell off end of last yr , since they have reversed there position the market has rallied.
    A combination of concerns about slowing economic growth (now confirmed) and trade wars (now being negotiated) - when the Fed raised rates - caused the sell-off?

    We now have the Fed backtracking in recognition of the slowing growth.

    If the Fed raises rates now, markets will go into free fall for sure!

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