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Thread: Black Monday

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  2. #4722
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    Cause and effect.

    The reason why Americans are dining out more and more is precisely because the stockmarket has been doing so well - not the other way round!

  3. #4723
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Cause and effect.

    The reason why Americans are dining out more and more is precisely because the stockmarket has been doing so well - not the other way round!
    Sharemarket is only some part of economy. It always up and down without no/unkown reasons. Job is the main player in economy.

  4. #4724
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    More volatility is ahead for markets.

  5. #4725
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    Quote Originally Posted by Valuegrowth View Post
    More volatility is ahead for markets.
    Always will be, without volatility it can't be a market.

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    Quote Originally Posted by couta1 View Post
    Always will be, without volatility it can't be a market.
    Exactly... Strawberries are cheap now.. Why ??? ... Risk..

  7. #4727
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    Synchronicity
    As we all know, good stories often have multiple facets. The present ongoing instability of global markets looks like it may take some time to reach a conclusion. Actions currently being taken by one part of the world are being mitigated by others. There’s more to the picture than just profit/loss statements, It’s a global chess game, checkmates and all.

    I find it interesting to consider side aspects such as the role played by innovation. It’s something that happens when there is support for the basic R&D processes driving it, bringing the changes online for general public consumption. When R&D declines we see corresponding upstream effects and eventual lack of "progression".

    European loss of faith
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/chin...aboolainternal


    European IMF
    https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2018/10/10/...=From%20%251$s


    43% decline in Ford car sales
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/12/ford...september.html


    US Budget
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/us-b...ng-surges.html


    US Instos selling a different story
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/15/gold...th-stocks.html


    Commentary
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/11/stoc...aboolainternal
    Last edited by arc; 16-10-2018 at 08:16 AM.

  8. #4728
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    Thanks arc . One conclusion for me from reading those links; have the discipline to hold until near xmas making the most of the high chance of one more buoyant,feel good push up in the mkts and then sell off at least 50% of my riskier, lower div growth stocks and build a pile of cash and await the turmoil ahead.

    Assuming the latest qrtly results coming out now in the USA for one meet expectations and that the traditional runup before year end happens..

  9. #4729
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    Quote Originally Posted by tuaman View Post
    Sharemarket is only some part of economy. It always up and down without no/unkown reasons. Job is the main player in economy.
    Companies are the backbone of the economy....even in NZ. Although the NZ share market is small...many of the companies that operate in NZ have overseas parents whose shares are listed on overseas exchanges.

    If the shares drop in value they may no longer be able to raise finance from banks whose capital coverage is affected. So the overseas company may divest itself of its non-core NZ assets but there are fewer willing purchasers so it could just close or mothball its NZ branch throwing Kwis out of a job.

  10. #4730
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    Thanks arc . One conclusion for me from reading those links; have the discipline to hold until near xmas making the most of the high chance of one more buoyant,feel good push up in the mkts and then sell off at least 50% of my riskier, lower div growth stocks and build a pile of cash and await the turmoil ahead.

    Assuming the latest qrtly results coming out now in the USA for one meet expectations and that the traditional runup before year end happens..
    I tend to agree and think there is a good chance another "surge" will happen, BUT chance and reality can be bad neighbors at times. If/When it happens im convinced it will be short lived.
    Like you I will be keeping a very close eye on events. As far as news goes, For every positive economic comment there seems to be a corresponding negative...

    The US economy appears to be steaming ahead, but how much is fueled by debt (also true for any country). Its not the business debt Im concerned about, they typically restructure (fire people) and survive, its the mom and pop debt that appears to be at unsustainable levels. When they fall over businesses have no clients to consume their output.

    There is increasing synchronicity across economies/nations at the global scale, many are slowing, many are changing points of view.

    Have a look at the S&P chart, add a 12 month moving average, if you can, include data from 2007 till present.
    add additional MACD (12,26,9)
    Last edited by arc; 16-10-2018 at 02:55 PM.

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