@WinfieldSmart
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:
1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974
All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns
Thanks. Very interesting finding. Don't even think about 1929. Great depression and over 10 years of suffering. Any way I was preparing for coming major pull back in overvalued markets.
"The Great Depression was the worst economic downturn in the history of the industrialized world, lasting from the stock market crash of 1929 to 1939."
Last edited by Valuegrowth; 20-04-2024 at 02:45 PM.
@WinfieldSmart
The yield curve has been inverted for over 500 days We’ve only seen this 3 times in history:
1. 2008
2. 1929
3. 1974
All 3 saw > 50% stock market drawdowns
It shows one of the markets have got it wrong ...I will bet its bond market which got it wrong ...over exuberance and moving all over the place shows that they dont have a clue while stocks are still following eps growth etc ...only their rates call for over all valuation purposes maybe little off the mark but that wont lead to big disaster as one expecting ie 50% corrections etc .... Companies are doing well due to innovation and economy doing well ...thus long term rates tanking to invert the curve seems like a wrong move ....not NVDA going parabolic
It shows one of the markets have got it wrong ...I will bet its bond market which got it wrong ...over exuberance and moving all over the place shows that they dont have a clue while stocks are still following eps growth etc ...only their rates call for over all valuation purposes maybe little off the mark but that wont lead to big disaster as one expecting ie 50% corrections etc .... Companies are doing well due to innovation and economy doing well ...thus long term rates tanking to invert the curve seems like a wrong move ....not NVDA going parabolic
Yeah I agree, although we could still see a 10 - 20% correction.
Covid saw a 40% correction only to bounce back swiftly and that was with half the world shutting down.
Netanyahu is the outlier. That guy is open to doing anything.
Hopefully you find my posts helpful, but in no way should they be construed as advice. Make your own decision.
Liam Dann on why The Aussie economy is stronger and more productive per person than ours and why yet again we lose so many NZ citizens to Australia.
I won’t post some of his main conclusions as it will be boring for some to hear again. I suspect that many from those segments of society that have a high propensity to actually vote will find it boring and will dismiss the conclusions as being woke or yet another attempt to disrupt the “Kiwi way of doing things”. We will probably have to wait until NZ is changed more by immigration from developing countries and/or things get a whole lot worse. Maybe NZ needs to become a big Southern version of Fiji, a country with friendly people, but with economic challenges and low living standards.
Liam Dann on why The Aussie economy is stronger and more productive per person than ours and why yet again we lose so many NZ citizens to Australia.
I won’t post some of his main conclusions as it will be boring for some to hear again. I suspect that many from those segments of society that have a high propensity to actually vote will find it boring and will dismiss the conclusions as being woke or yet another attempt to disrupt the “Kiwi way of doing things”. We will probably have to wait until NZ is changed more by immigration from developing countries and/or things get a whole lot worse. Maybe NZ needs to become a big Southern version of Fiji, a country with friendly people, but with economic challenges and low living standards.
Liam Dann on why The Aussie economy is stronger and more productive per person than ours and why yet again we lose so many NZ citizens to Australia.
I won’t post some of his main conclusions as it will be boring for some to hear again. I suspect that many from those segments of society that have a high propensity to actually vote will find it boring and will dismiss the conclusions as being woke or yet another attempt to disrupt the “Kiwi way of doing things”. We will probably have to wait until NZ is changed more by immigration from developing countries and/or things get a whole lot worse. Maybe NZ needs to become a big Southern version of Fiji, a country with friendly people, but with economic challenges and low living standards.
Well you do bang on about a capital gains tax a lot. Alot of people agree with you on that.
But Liam's conclusion is that maybe after mineral wealth a capital gains tax and forcing people to save for their own retirement are the two big differences between the countries.
I expect to see a lot more work being done providing for your own retirement after 2029-2030. Much like tertiary education I think we will find it is not affordable after this date and serious sacrifices will have to be made by younger generations.
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I expect to see a lot more work being done providing for your own retirement after 2029-2030. Much like tertiary education I think we will find it is not affordable after this date and serious sacrifices will have to be made by younger generations.
The younger generation that is leaving for Australia in increasing numbers…So will we have an immigrant younger population, waiting for its opportunity to skip over to Oz, supporting a retired NZ citizenry in their big houses? Our version of Italian villages full of retired folk as the young have moved to Northern Europe.
Liam Dann did say that despite not having mineral wealth, NZ did abound with other bounties from nature.
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Originally Posted by winner69
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