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27-03-2020, 02:25 PM
#6871
Originally Posted by dabsman
How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued. I'm not a trader in any way but I've sold and repurchased the same shares. I now own 30% more OCA shares for less capital tied up and a similar percentage of HGH for similar money laid down. I didn't sell my WBC shares (doh!) but brought the average price down to $20 (now looking at massive DRP growth long term). I look at it as a time for housekeeping/spring cleaning. Getting rid of ones that have done their dash (MET) and buying others I've had my eye on a while (BRM) as an example
I was also very heavily exposed to the retirment sector so will slowly unwind that in this market too
I also moved my Kiwisaver into conservative about 2 weeks ago and back into growth last friday. I've lost 6% on these funds and the fund hasn't booked in the big gains the last 3 days. I should be up quite a bit. If I left as is (like the experts are saying) then the fund I moved out of lost 34% from when I moved. Lucky break maybe?
What I have learnt is I know very little about buying and selling timing. I tended to sell on days where there was big drops and buy on days when it was rising. If I could have a bit more skill just on this timing I think I'd be 10% better off currently. I'm not meaning trying to time the top or the bottom just better execution of the plan - i.e. I decide to sell. Do I drip amount in to a rising day or dump it and move on. Reading depth better is something I need to understand better. I also ended up buying more than I wanted one day purley because I forgot about a buy order - noob!
Lol - don't feel bad. I am a relative newby to 'investing' and put in some really low buy offers (at the time) and then got carried away with work.
Forgot about the orders and now am the proud owner of KMD and a whole lot more OCA shares - oops.
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27-03-2020, 02:25 PM
#6872
Originally Posted by Balance
Everyone super negative?
Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.
Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.
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27-03-2020, 02:27 PM
#6873
Originally Posted by Balance
Everyone super negative?
Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.
Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
A lot of people in commerce i deal with do not believe this will last longer than 8 weeks or not result in a decent recovery when it concludes, that is in contrast to the medical perspective I hear, so who will be right....
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27-03-2020, 02:32 PM
#6874
Originally Posted by jonu
bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.
I hope bull is OK and hasn’t been struck down with something
”When investors are euphoric, they are incapable of recognising euphoria itself “
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27-03-2020, 02:34 PM
#6875
Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."
His posts are essential for some balance imo.
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27-03-2020, 02:42 PM
#6876
Originally Posted by dabsman
How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued.....
IMHO you are doing exactly the right thing and I've been doing the same thing.
It's a great time lower your average hold SP on high conviction holds, realise a few profits, cash up and wait for opportunities.
Bit like the orchardist doing winter pruning in preparation for the spring to come.
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27-03-2020, 03:02 PM
#6877
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."
His posts are essential for some balance imo.
Agreed!!!!
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27-03-2020, 04:03 PM
#6878
NZX has perfectly rejected the resistance at the previous high point set on the 18th, but still in an hourly uptrend.
My base case is that this is just a bull trap as I really don't think people appreciate the economic impacts we are going to see. Letting the market decided whether I should be bull or bear though.
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27-03-2020, 04:08 PM
#6879
Originally Posted by Joshuatree
Bull
"my money is on a bear bounce , shares are bouncing 10 - 20 - 30 % on such low volume which helps support this theory to me. anyway i wont be posting much for a while got family to look after at home and support so take care everyone."
His posts are essential for some balance imo.
Wishing him and his family all the best.
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27-03-2020, 04:47 PM
#6880
Originally Posted by sb9
Wishing him and his family all the best.
Bull abdicated from the forum during the lockdown as he is with family , his absence is not unexpected.
Stay safe from the rona, everybody - apparently that's what the kids call it.
which is only funny coz I actually have an Aunt Rona who lives in SUM village SUM where.
Edit: I'm hopeful of a quicker recovery than most folk , but don't think the worst is over yet. And it could go bad still. As in really bad. But it probably wont. Who knows.
But business is built on optimism so one must keep digging to find it.
But I am still quite weary of the claw, so have mainly been speculating playing the market as I see it from hour to hour.
Last edited by peat; 27-03-2020 at 04:52 PM.
For clarity, nothing I say is advice....
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