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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #4561
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    Oil has recovered nicely. Hopefully WTI will reach $80 USD by the end of the year. Owning companies that actually produce stuff like oil and other commodities (rather than relying on advertising revenue like Facebook), might, weirdly, be a good bet before this cycle is through.
    Last edited by Bobdn; 23-09-2018 at 11:43 AM.

  2. #4562
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    Quote Originally Posted by value_investor View Post
    http://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe/

    The Shiller PE (10 Year S&P500 PE adjusted for inflation) now at the highest level ever since the 2000 crash.

    The FANG stocks make up over 40% of the contribution of the gain in the market so a slowdown could slow down the market. I'm not in the US market but its probably the most interesting. Amazon currently trading at a PE of 151 and a forward PE of 75. I'm not betting against Amazon but they and a lot of other tech stocks will have to perform near perfectly to avoid negative share performance.
    In the last week I have shorted, Google, Tesla and Alphabet (GOOG). Thanks for reminding me about Amazon, that is another to add to the short list.

  3. #4563
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bobdn View Post
    Oil has recovered nicely. Hopefully WTI will reach $80 USD by the end of the year. Owning companies that actually produce stuff like oil and other commodities (rather than relying on advertising revenue like Facebook), might, weirdly, be a good bet before this cycle is through.
    Yep, oil stocks have done well recently. Side point: for the oil producers I follow Brent is the relevant benchmark rather than WTI.

    On Facebook, I've been told that buying anything through one of the advertisements on Facebook results in your in-box being spammed with endless advertisements – the result is that people just won't click on the ads (let alone buy anything) which can only lead to less advertising revenue over time + Facebook users spending more time on other platforms.

  4. #4564
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    Investors are now earning the smallest earnings yield on the S&P 500 relative to 2-year Treasury yields since 2007....

    Interesting read
    https://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/5...o-ops-20180914
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

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    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Investors are now earning the smallest earnings yield on the S&P 500 relative to 2-year Treasury yields since 2007....

    Interesting read
    https://www.yesmagazine.org/issues/5...o-ops-20180914
    So we might be a year out from a crash if history repeats? I note that the Fed are pushing up rates again and it seems like they are planning on hiking multiple times in the coming year. This is something they did prior to the 2008 Crash. So to me, that signals a warning that we are close to the end of the cycle.

  7. #4567
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    Quote Originally Posted by NeverQuestion View Post
    So we might be a year out from a crash if history repeats? I note that the Fed are pushing up rates again and it seems like they are planning on hiking multiple times in the coming year. This is something they did prior to the 2008 Crash. So to me, that signals a warning that we are close to the end of the cycle.
    Yes all histrionic factors are pointing towards crash and depression followed by major power War .....I try not to think about it to much
    hope it will be different this time
    "With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu

  8. #4568
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    Over the last twenty years we have averaged a crash once every ten years. The next one could happen any day now. Or not. Could go either way. But certainly, we are probably due for one, unless we're not; and I'm 100% certain of that.
    From the classic "Top is in" thread that has been running for years now on MMM Main theme is that we don't know when the next crash, recession, etc will actually be. You can always find someone on any particular day saying that the 'end is nigh', one day someone will be right!

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonboyz View Post
    From the classic "Top is in" thread that has been running for years now on MMM Main theme is that we don't know when the next crash, recession, etc will actually be. You can always find someone on any particular day saying that the 'end is nigh', one day someone will be right!
    classic . hope its me hahha anyway good day on the dow again

    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/02/us-m...-in-focus.html
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  10. #4570
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    Default Let's hope this time will be different

    Quote Originally Posted by JBmurc View Post
    Yes all histrionic factors are pointing towards crash and depression followed by major power War .....I try not to think about it to much
    hope it will be different this time
    That is what Ray Dalio is saying too
    https://www.businessinsider.com.au/r...18-9?r=US&IR=T

    • Hedge fund legend Ray Dalio says the economy looks like it did in the late 1930s in many ways: interest rates hit zero in the early stage of each crisis, asset prices are near full capacity, interest rates are still low, the wealth gap has widened, populism is on the rise, and global tensions are rising.
    • Dalio says: “We’re in the later part of the cycle, the part of cycle in which monetary policy is tightening and there’s not much capacity to squeeze out of the economy.” He expects a downturn in roughly two years.
    • Dalio says the way to handle the situation so we don’t repeat the late ’30s and ’40s is to make sure that capitalism works for a majority of the people.
    • Dalio goes on to say it’s not just about a wealth gap but also an opportunity gap. He calls the issue a national emergency.

    “And we have a political situation in terms of having more of a conflict between the rich and the poor, which is bringing out a populism. Populism around the world is the selection of strong-minded leaders who are – sort of take charge, but tend to be more nationalistic. And so, we’re in that type of position.
    Blodget: And you’ve written extensively and absolutely about what happened after 1937, which is we went through a real surge of populism and nationalism, and got to World War II, and all the horrible things that happened there. What do you think happens now, given where we are?”
    .

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