Black Monday

[winner69]

Always thought that skill needed to be boosted by luck to outperform the market ...maybe more so than I thought

A stats guy has come up with this, p being probability -

p(outperform) = p(outperform|luck)*p(luck) + p(outperform|skill)*p(skill)

Which rearranges to the following.

p(skill) = [p(outperform) - p(outperform|luck)*p(luck)] / p(outperform|skill)

[peat]

Martin Hawes said he was selling up shares to 40% of portfolio in may 2016

Martin Hawes: Selling shares to beat the market | Stuff.co.nz
http://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opin...eat-the-market

He was early by at least 18 months but in some ways for a typical portfolio he wouldn't have done too badly at all. FBU only went downhill since then. SPK is lower now than then (although both did go higher).
AIA peaked in AUG 16 (so far).CNU is lower now. RYM had a peak about then but has only in the last 6 months exceeded that peak.

It wasnt too bad a call. One might say that since then any further highs have been frothy. And recall that he only went to 50% so he's taking a measured approach.

[winner69]

One question that nobody has ever given me an answer to (or one that makes sense) is on these days when the share market collapses where does all the cash for the buying come from? And then where does all the cash the sellers get go to?

At the end of the day on a net basis no cash has left the market (just its value is billions less)

Any simple answer.

[hardt]

One question that nobody has ever given me an answer to (or one that makes sense) is on these days when the share market collapses where does all the cash for the buying come from? And then where does all the cash the sellers get go to?

At the end of the day on a net basis no cash has left the market (just its value is billions less)

Any simple answer.

Note that if a dentist in Poughkeepsie sells a single share of Apple just 10 cents lower than the previous trade, a full $500 million of market capitalization vanishes from the market. The dentist exits with $ brought by the buyer. No net cash goes "into' or "out of" the market

https://twitter.com/hussmanjp

[frostyboy]

One question that nobody has ever given me an answer to (or one that makes sense) is on these days when the share market collapses where does all the cash for the buying come from? And then where does all the cash the sellers get go to?

At the end of the day on a net basis no cash has left the market (just its value is billions less)

Any simple answer.

M1 is cash
M2 is bank accounts
M3 is credit card

My opinion is think of it like what is money..
The Corporate bond market is like a Mxx?
The stock market is like a M14, when the market decreases the available money decreases.



http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=m0,-m1,-m2,-m3,-m4

Different measures of money supply. Not all of them are widely used and the exact classifications depend on the country. M0 and M1, also called narrow money, normally include coins and notes in circulation and other money equivalents that are easily convertible into cash. M2 includes M1 plus short-term time deposits in banks and 24-hour money market funds. M3 includes M2 plus longer-term time deposits and money market funds with more than 24-hour maturity. The exact definitions of the three measures depend on the country. M4 includes M3 plus other deposits. The term broad money is used to describe M2, M3 or M4, depending on the local practicee a M10

[bull....]

big night tonight -- inflation figures

[Brovendell]

One question that nobody has ever given me an answer to (or one that makes sense) is on these days when the share market collapses where does all the cash for the buying come from? And then where does all the cash the sellers get go to?

At the end of the day on a net basis no cash has left the market (just its value is billions less)

Any simple answer.

Money heaven : globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2011/02/money-heaven.html

[winner69]

big night tonight -- inflation figures

So tomorrow could be a big day .....one way or the other

[Baa_Baa]

So tomorrow could be a big day .....one way or the other

Dow March futures reckon some upside tomorrow, so far. The bull just refuses to die it seems, so far.

[Yoda]

One question that nobody has ever given me an answer to (or one that makes sense) is on these days when the share market collapses where does all the cash for the buying come from?

At the end of the day on a net basis no cash has left the market (just its value is billions less)

Any simple answer.

i assume it comes from people like Matin Hawes that was selling 18 months ago .?