Black Monday

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Only a fool would think that it is possible to forecast GDP growth (or any other economic parameter) with such a precision - particularly in unprecedented times like this.

Who did you say thought that the forecast was not good enough?

When your job is literally to have your finger on the pulse of the economy this is unacceptable. Decisions are made from their forecasts. When a realistic range of possibilities is say +/- 150bps, a 220bps miss is a shocker.

[workingdad]

"Energy Cuckoo's lost & dreaming in the Woods" it seems:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/125...lloons-to-349m

'Never again': cost to taxpayers of Tui oilfield clean-up balloons to $349m









Well who else left standing with a few pennies was there to pay Clean Up bill ?

What taxes, duties, royalties, licence & permit costs were extracted by Govt over the life of the field ?

Obviously not small syphon-offs either that were extracted by Govt








Well that's nice .. a major bit of buck passing and very convenient too - supposedly no-one from Woods' Energy-Less Department bothered to think to open their eyes and do a bit of forward lateral thinking on the real projected clean up costs forward ..




Yeah right..



Aha




That's nice, but really ? All the boys & girls up the back were probably nodding, but..


So what will a little more scrutiny do to change anything, if the encumbent operators / owners are headed down
the gurgler with no dough on a field in it's closing years and no-one fronts to tidy up ?

How many more of these fields are there, where time is going to be up, before Woods & her mates exit the stage ?

Will they have to empty their purse on the Govt front desk on arriving first ?

What happens if none do ?

What happens if none find it economic or have interest looking at end of life fields ?

Where does the buck stop then ?

If Woods' Ministry of Energy-Less were able to do such a good job on this tidy up on the estimates of forward costings, will they do any better on others ?


Sorry .. forgot .. there will be no new fields , no new wells because no-one wants to deal with the current back the
front administration and many explorers are relinquishing their permits etc here hurriedly to depart fast, if they
haven't already aiming to pop up in more exploration friendly territories elsewhere globally


Must be why NZ Energy Explorers are digging in over yonder & further away too ..


Not too far a journey either -- the nearest friendlier territory just happens to be across the ditch - darlings


The levels of Govt squawking on this one are as good as their various Phantom House Building schemes
to date which is yet another portfolio on just which Ministers desk again now ? - right

Oil company makes good coin pulling it out of the ground, they set aside a certain amount of money per barrel extracted to cover the costs of decommissioning. They sell the field to another less credible company including the little piggy bank full of money for decommissioning. Less credible company siphon off all the money overseas, cries foul - there’s not enough oil anymore, we are going broke……. Off the go leaving the bill for tax payers.

Yep…… yep…… yep…… yep……

[Panda-NZ-]

Yes all the "alternative" ideas seem to benefit overseas people more than people living here.

[greater fool]

Worth a read punters. Time for a portfolio/strategy review?

https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/1...interest-rates

The drumbeats are getting louder...........................

https://www.goodreturns.co.nz/articl...dp-growth.html
"Latest GDP figures show the economy grew by 1.6% in the three months to March, beating forecasts of -0.6%.
The surprisingly strong data has prompted ANZ's team of economists to bring forward their rate hike predictions."


https://thebull.com.au/asx-has-bigge...in-four-weeks/
"Australian Market Report: Shares had their biggest fall in more than four weeks on the Australian market as
investors responded to the prospect of global interest rates moving higher."


https://www.reuters.com/business/wal...es-2021-06-17/
"Weakness in tech shares pulled Wall Street lower at the open on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled
it could start tapering its stimulus earlier than expected, piling pressure on a sector that is seen as vulnerable to higher interest rates."


https://apnews.com/article/inflation...4af689f13a5ef7
"The Federal Reserve signaled Wednesday that it may act sooner than previously planned to start dialing back the
low-interest-rate policies that have helped fuel a swift rebound from the pandemic recession but have also coincided
with rising inflation."

[Panda-NZ-]

Europe = a shade of red to end the week.

[Panda-NZ-]

What I like about the NZX is it has a more of an ability to withstand higher interest rates in comparison to most other markets.

[Bobdn]

NZD falling more dramatically than US shares over the last two days. I guess this will help reduce the sting in USF.nzx USG.nzx, USV, USM and USS when the market opens next week. It's been painful at times holding these as the NZD has surged. Can't believe how well the NZD had been doing considering our vulnerable economy.

Hopefully the NZD will keep on falling so I can feel wealthier in NZD terms

Roger Kerr makes sense:

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencie...nged-past-week

https://www.interest.co.nz/currencie...s-recent-weeks

[nztx]

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/hea...evel-2-tonight

Covid-19 NZ: Wellington moving into alert level 2 tonight


Was the glass towers on the hill housing a filthy bunch of Politicians a place visited ?

[kiwico]

Was the glass towers on the hill housing a filthy bunch of Politicians a place visited ?

I think the Australian in question showed some taste and didn't visit them. He did visit an awful lot of eateries though. And every pre-Covid case seems to visit a chemist despite claiming they're not ill.

[Bobdn]

The US market keeps on trucking. I sold a little bit this morning when the market opened at 1.30am (VOO - Vanguard's 500 ETF and the oil ETF XLE) to give me cash to live off for the next couple of years. I'd been sailing a little close to the wind over the last six months and didn't have much cash on hand to do much of anything. So I'm putting the selling into the category of "raising cash to completely fill up my cash bucket" rather than the "getting the f*** out of dodge" category.

So I'm still staying at the party.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=E7KM7dDRDUo

I do enjoy the WealthTrack channel:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FN8IsvNLKcI