Black Monday

[Baa_Baa]

Jeremy Grantham a old time guru. Recent piece of his “Waiting for the Last Dance” is quite good.

Probably right when he says -

The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.”


But some (maybe many) would say he’s an old guy who just doesn’t get it that this time is different.

https://www.gmo.com/australia/resear...he-last-dance/

Seems like a wise old chap, but did he write this before the central banks dumped billions and trillions of liquidity into the economies?

[winner69]

Seems like a wise old chap, but did he write this before the central banks dumped billions and trillions of liquidity into the economies?

Trillions will no doubt boost share markets more ...but those long term returns will go lower still and probably negative

Alright for me and you as we’ll be out when it reaches that stage eh

[ratkin]

Trillions will no doubt boost share markets more ...but those long term returns will go lower still and probably negative

Alright for me and you as we’ll be out when it reaches that stage eh

If you will be out, where will you be in?

[peat]

If you will be out, where will you be in?

does he mean interred.

(this is the Black Monday thread)

[Gerald]

Untitled.jpg

Interesting graph of margin debt going parabolic, history shows what happens next (although could obviously go far further).

[LaserEyeKiwi]

Jeremy Grantham a old time guru. Recent piece of his “Waiting for the Last Dance” is quite good.

Probably right when he says -

The one reality that you can never change is that a higher-priced asset will produce a lower return than a lower-priced asset. You can’t have your cake and eat it. You can enjoy it now, or you can enjoy it steadily in the distant future, but not both – and the price we pay for having this market go higher and higher is a lower 10-year return from the peak.”


But some (maybe many) would say he’s an old guy who just doesn’t get it that this time is different.

https://www.gmo.com/australia/resear...he-last-dance/

He's been saying the market is headed for a crash for literally a decade.

[dobby41]

Untitled.jpg

Interesting graph of margin debt going parabolic, history shows what happens next (although could obviously go far further).

Another interpretation would be that it has quickly gotten back to the trend line.
In the other 2 instances highlighted they didn't have the same big dip below trend prior to the skyrocket.

[winner69]

Is this GameSpot GME in the US a good thing

Don’t know anything about them but heck what does that matter - as my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

[bull....]

Is this GameSpot GME in the US a good thing

Don’t know anything about them but heck what does that matter - as my signature says “In a roaring bull market, knowledge is superfluous and experience is a handicap.”

its the new thing in the US by the robinhood , reddit crowds. target most shorted stocks with over sized buying of options causing the market makers to rush to buy stock to hedge there risks.

[dameofdiv]

Rich crowd for sure to be able to move the market. Agree - I throw the fundamentals away in such a phenomena. GME is not the first target of Reddit crowd. So far doing very very well.

p.s. I beat my chest cos I used to own GME at 3 bucks/share. Bye bye half a million USD.