Black Monday

[winner69]

If the S&P500 falls 60% to 1000 as some commentators reckon what will happen on the NZX ....suppose be sad stories here as well.

They say that 1000 sounds nuts but on a valuation basis, dropping to that level would not be at all surprising.

[Valuegrowth]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/2018-...050100513.html

Contrarians Made the Right Market Calls in 2018. Here's What They're Saying Now

[moka]

The global stage is changing faster than the self centred restricted thinking mode displayed by other waning global players.

https://www.cnbc.com/hong-kong-macau...ilicon-valley/

https://theintercept.com/2017/07/22/...erican-empire/
Donald Trump and the Coming Fall of American Empire

Alfred McCoy: What I think right now is that, through some kind of malign design, Donald Trump has divined, has figured out what are the essential pillars of U.S. global power that have sustained Washington’s hegemony for the past 70 years and he seems to be setting out to demolish each one of those pillars one by one. He’s weakened the NATO alliance; he’s weakened our alliances with Asian allies along the Pacific littoral. He’s proposing to cut back on the scientific research which has given the United States — its military industrial complex — a cutting edge, a leading edge in critical new weapons systems since the early years of the Cold War. And he’s withdrawing the United States, almost willfully, from its international leadership, most spectacularly with the Paris Climate Accord but also very importantly with the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

And he seems to be setting out to systematically demolish U.S. global hegemony. Our share of the global economy has declined substantially. We’re about to be eclipsed by 2030, by China, and become the world’s number two economic power. It’s a more complex world, so the United States can no longer dictate to the world, or at least much of the world, like we could back in the 1950s.

[bull....]

friday session eeded right back at the lows of the range , not unexpected as mentioned to seeweed to not get excited about the upside . anyway this week watching those supports if they dont hold we will probably test the years lows before xmas. oh no no santa this year

heres a good graph of bull/bear markets

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d

i think the average lenght of a bear market in a non recession is just over a yr .. guessing i am

[winner69]

friday session eeded right back at the lows of the range , not unexpected as mentioned to seeweed to not get excited about the upside . anyway this week watching those supports if they dont hold we will probably test the years lows before xmas. oh no no santa this year

heres a good graph of bull/bear markets

https://www.ftportfolios.com/Common/...8-628ff9bfe12d

i think the average lenght of a bear market in a non recession is just over a yr .. guessing i am

Short but sharp though ....big drops in short time eh

Tough 45% and 50% drops last 2 times

Maybe that guy talking 60% isn’t guessing

[Beagle]

Drop that size last time was as the result of the GFC, arguably the biggest financial event of a generation. The economic fundamentals are not suggesting another GFC.
Yes being overweight cash is probably a good idea as is looking at skewing one's portfolio towards defensive stocks in healthcare, REIT's, utilities and consumer staples but going to all cash seems a little extreme, (which appears to be the course of action some are implying is wise).

[bull....]

more to what i was saying about no santa rally

As bad luck would have it, Friday's stumble saw Wall Street's benchmark index the S&P500 form a death cross, joining the small-cap Russell 2000 index in the same unhappy boat.
For the statistically minded, according to Reuters death crosses have formed on the S&P500 only 12 times since the Great Depression back in the late 1920s.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2018-12-...ction=business

so that means dec/jan will be bad bad bad ...if you belioeve statistics

[bull....]

Drop that size last time was as the result of the GFC, arguably the biggest financial event of a generation. The economic fundamentals are not suggesting another GFC.
Yes being overweight cash is probably a good idea as is looking at skewing one's portfolio towards defensive stocks in healthcare, REIT's, utilities and consumer staples but going to all cash seems a little extreme, (which appears to be the course of action some are implying is wise).

if we enter a bear market even those sectors you mention go down , just less than other ones

[Beagle]

The last two death crosses in 2016 were followed by very short correction and then a very substantial rally. There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.

What percentage cash have you got in your portfolio Bull ?

[bull....]

The last two death crosses in 2016 were followed by very short correction and then a very substantial rally. There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.

What percentage cash have you got in your portfolio Bull ?

80% cash , you need to remember im a trader so i time stuff and follow chart trends and macro trends. the trend is down at the moment so i remain bearish until something changes.
long term investors meaning those who invest for 10yrs or more probably dont care about death crosses etc or bear markets and will most likely just average in as we keep declining.