Black Monday

[winner69]

Somethings no from The Atlantic -

"If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year. If you use Lime scooters to bop around the city, download Wag to walk your dog, and sign up for Blue Apron to make a meal, that’s three more brands that have never recorded a dime in earnings, or have seen their valuations fall by more than 50 percent."

With a lot of these businesses, you could see them being used by a bunch of single, 26-year-old New York and San Francisco condo-dwelling hipsters making $200K a year (i.e. the exact type of people who work for these same companies), but Joe and Jane Sixpack from Kentucky? Not so much.

So it seems we’re having, or about to have a day of reckoning for these sorts of “Dotcom 2.0” companies. WeWork is the most famous example, of late. Growth is out, profits are in.

[Blue Skies]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this?

No problem! As Churchill famously once said, 'success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm.'

[Blue Skies]

Somethings no from The Atlantic -

"If you wake up on a Casper mattress, work out with a Peloton before breakfast, Uber to your desk at a WeWork, order DoorDash for lunch, take a Lyft home, and get dinner through Postmates, you’ve interacted with seven companies that will collectively lose nearly $14 billion this year. If you use Lime scooters to bop around the city, download Wag to walk your dog, and sign up for Blue Apron to make a meal, that’s three more brands that have never recorded a dime in earnings, or have seen their valuations fall by more than 50 percent."

With a lot of these businesses, you could see them being used by a bunch of single, 26-year-old New York and San Francisco condo-dwelling hipsters making $200K a year (i.e. the exact type of people who work for these same companies), but Joe and Jane Sixpack from Kentucky? Not so much.

So it seems we’re having, or about to have a day of reckoning for these sorts of “Dotcom 2.0” companies. WeWork is the most famous example, of late. Growth is out, profits are in.

That's brilliant!

[Bjauck]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this?

NZ has amongst the highest level of household debt as a % of GDP. From a low interest rate environment, a small upward movement in interest rates will be "meaningful"

[dibble]

NZ has amongst the highest level of household debt as a % of GDP. From a low interest rate environment, a small upward movement in interest rates will be "meaningful"

And didnt the previous OCR drop some with the implication consumers should borrow even more to feed the celebrated perpetual growth beast? Is that, er, responsible.

[value_investor]

I think we'll look back at these times say 2015-2019 as being incredibly prosperous just like we did from 2001-2005. The fact that companies like Wework or blueapron etc can't make money at a time where disposable income is at an all time high says something. Its not likely to get better for them in a recession scenario (ie. if you couldn't make money now then how will you in a recession).

[Blue Skies]

I think we'll look back at these times say 2015-2019 as being incredibly prosperous just like we did from 2001-2005. The fact that companies like Wework or blueapron etc can't make money at a time where disposable income is at an all time high says something. Its not likely to get better for them in a recession scenario (ie. if you couldn't make money now then how will you in a recession).

Not disagreeing with you but just looking at 2 of those mentioned. Wework, as a business model should have worked if founder hadn't been so reckless with investors money, e.g. trademarking the word We & selling it back to his own co for US$ 5.9M, raucous staff parties, corporate jets, investing in surfer friends wave pool business, elementary school etc, fascinating story of recklessness, hype & greed & well worth looking up online. The business model does apparently work, just not when run like this. Also if you're thinking of investing in shared scooters, (like Lime & Bird) don't! They're not a sustainable business model, i.e. scooters need to last 6 months with 5 rides a day to pay for themselves before starting to make a profit, but average scooter across fleet only last 28 days due to being trashed or damaged. According to manufacturers, these scooters are designed for single owner use, under 90 kilos, on flat ground in good weather. But people throw them on the ground, or in the harbour or up a tree, ride 2 at a time on them, or just seem to get a kick out of destroying them.

[value_investor]

Not disagreeing with you but just looking at 2 of those mentioned. Wework, as a business model should have worked if founder hadn't been so reckless with investors money, e.g. trademarking the word We & selling it back to his own co for US$ 5.9M, raucous staff parties, corporate jets, investing in surfer friends wave pool business, elementary school etc, fascinating story of recklessness, hype & greed & well worth looking up online. The business model does apparently work, just not when run like this. Also if you're thinking of investing in shared scooters, (like Lime & Bird) don't! They're not a sustainable business model, i.e. scooters need to last 6 months with 5 rides a day to pay for themselves before starting to make a profit, but average scooter across fleet only last 28 days due to being trashed or damaged. According to manufacturers, these scooters are designed for single owner use, under 90 kilos, on flat ground in good weather. But people throw them on the ground, or in the harbour or up a tree, ride 2 at a time on them, or just seem to get a kick out of destroying them.

Not that familiar with Wework but my jist of what I'm getting at is that we are in incredibly prosperous times without realising it. Wework is operating at a time were leasing vacancies are probably at their all time lows as well as unemployment and they still don't make money, imagine what happens in a 08 situation were vacancies sit for months on end. These companies will probably get swallowed up.

I know people who uber to places that are 20 minutes walk because they're too lazy to walk or catch a lime, better yet so many that get food delivered on Menulog or Ubereats more than once a week. Yet those companies aren't profitable now. Now imagine what happens when unemployment climbs to 7% again..

[percy]

Apparently global debt is set to reach NZD 400tn by the end of the year. NZD 52k for every person on the planet.

Anybody see a problem with this?

Had lunch with the wife's nephew today.
He sees a real problem with all the debt,and thinks there will be a world financial meltdown.
He is hoarding Silver and Gold.
And I think he must think there is going to be a food shortage too,by the amount of tucka he put away.!

[blobbles]

Had lunch with the wife's nephew today.
He sees a real problem with all the debt,and thinks there will be a world financial meltdown.
He is hoarding Silver and Gold.
And I think he must think there is going to be a food shortage too,by the amount of tucka he put away.!

That's just it - it seems to me there is so much, when it comes crashing down, it feels like it will be to the point of collapsing currencies. So gold and silver might not be a bad investment.

Then again, I have heard rumblings of a China crypto currency backed by gold. Which would be absolutely massive and in such a currency crisis likely supplant the current dominant world currencies (with the US suffering hugely with the amount of debt they have the the Euro probably being even worse off with their issues).