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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #7011
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    Quote Originally Posted by Left field View Post
    Only time will tell...... however, just as NZ's 'success' managing covid-19 is different from other nations, so too the economic effect for sound NZ companies will be different.

    I expect a large fall in the USA markets in the coming months but am increasingly confident that sound NZX companies will be spared the worst.
    I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.

  2. #7012
    Advanced Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Same int rate supression too

    12.jpg

  3. #7013
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.
    I agree, the depth of commerce and technology sectors overseas full stop is more inviting, look at the effort by previous governments here just to keep GDP growth via population growth alone...

  4. #7014
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    https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/ne...ave-known-them

    with the Fed's announcement of unlimited QE and its “will buy or support almost anything,” along with the pending passage of a $2-2.5 trillion stimulus package, this is the end of the capital markets as we have known them.

    In Chairman Bernanke‘s 2010 Washington Post op-ed, he argued that QE would lead to a virtuous economic cycle; therefore, the Fed would eventually be able to exit from its QE operations. I argued that once initiated, a reversal would be impossible.

    With the initiation of the Fed’s complete takeover and control of the US financial economy, there is now absolutely no accurate pricing discovery in the capital markets and we have entered a period of total manipulation. In light of this, the only markets I have an interest in are those where the heavy hand of government is not involved or only minimally involved. This leads me to rare commodities and collectibles. The public equity and debt markets are now nothing more than greater fool markets that are led by the greatest fools of all, the Fed and the Congress. US capital markets, RIP!

  5. #7015
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.
    I tend to agree. We could really suffer here. I'm pretty much just indexing these days and have just 13 per cent going towards NZ shares. Over the last month I got a real sense that the business sector in NZ is kind of seen as expendable, with the Reserve Bank and increased transfer payments seen as a more than adequate substitute. It's a good time to be diversified.

    Look, I'm no economics guru. Maybe this whole "productive sector" thing is over rated. We might be able to find new innovative ways for an "economy" to operate. In Star Trek, for example, they didn't even use money and could produce goods through "replicators". Replicators could eliminate "scarcity" in our economy. Sometimes its just a matter of thinking outside the square.
    Last edited by Bobdn; 10-04-2020 at 11:55 AM.

  6. #7016
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    Primary produce looks safer at moment than most investments

  7. #7017
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    Quote Originally Posted by blackcap View Post
    I actually think the opposite. NZ is far more reliant on tourism than the US and with our more rigid measures, our economy and markets will be adversely affected when compared to the US.
    I did say "sound NZX companies..." I don't rate the tourism sector as 'sound' particularly in the new covid-19 paradigm.

    NZ's % of Govt borrowing v GDP is much healthier than many. JMHO.

  8. #7018
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    I used to watch a US public broadcasting show from time to time called the Nightly Business report. It used to give a good summary of the days events. Sadly it bit the dust last year. They used to have this old guy Art Cashin on, a NYSE floor trader of 60 years. His comments as a floor trader usually gave a good quick feel of the events of the day, with less usual trader rara, and a bit more tempered and experienced insight.

    He was in a car accident in February, so this was his first interview since recovering from then, and for those who used to watch NBR he also caught up with his old pal Bob Pisani. The video is at the bottom of the linked page for anyone interested.

    Cashin: Fed gives stocks a ‘breath of fresh air’ but full market recovery may take some time yet

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/09/cash...fresh-air.html

  9. #7019
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    even trumps coming round

    Trump says he’s not going to reopen economy ‘until we know this country is going to be healthy’


    guess they figured its dumb to open after a 30 day period , would only mean it comes back again

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/10/trum...e-healthy.html


    wonder what ardern thinking on this is ? longer lock down or open up and let the virus rise again?


    heres a official virus projection the new york times got there hands on that may have changed trumps mind horrendous figures

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthel...ull.pdf#page=1
    Last edited by bull....; 11-04-2020 at 08:07 AM.
    one step ahead of the herd

  10. #7020
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    Ive transferred the below link that moose put up (on another thread) in case some missed it. Great read. Thanks Moose, good to see you threading the boards again.



    https://thereformedbroker.com/2013/1...arket-crashes/

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