Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

if you think wall st is a bubble , surely you must think NZ is a huge bubble

Bubble is a strong word. Investors always need to assess earnings capacity of a company to decide which price they want to pay. Obviously - with the earnings being in the future they need to rely on forecasts (or make them up themselves).

In my view we have currently two effects making companies too dear (i.e. bring them closer to bubble territory):

1) Low interest rates resulting in high stock prices. If for some reason interest rates go up again, stock prices will fall - and yes, this might well end up like a popping bubble if it is badly managed (stampeding investors if its a surprise);

2) Some companies do have in my view likely significantly lower earnings capacity than their current share price would imply (i.e markets are too optimistic) and some of these companies are listed on the NZX. AIR would be one example, but there are clearly more. If reality shows through I would expect these bubbles to burst.

Just some observations ... it does not make sense to me that Tesla has e.g. a higher market cap than Daimler, Volkswagen and Toyota together. All three companies do have a lot of experience to build high quality cars ... Tesla has not ... and building electric cars is neither brain surgery nor rocket science ... so - here is a bubble, if you are looking for it.

Looking at the NZX ... I'd say that a number of directly or indirectly tourism related stocks are too dear - and some might well be in a bubble.

[Hoop]

Bubble is a strong word.......Looking at the NZX ... I'd say that a number of directly or indirectly tourism related stocks are too dear - and some might well be in a bubble.

Power companies?..recent market correcting suggests they got well over-valued

[bull....]

Bubble is a strong word. Investors always need to assess earnings capacity of a company to decide which price they want to pay. Obviously - with the earnings being in the future they need to rely on forecasts (or make them up themselves).

In my view we have currently two effects making companies too dear (i.e. bring them closer to bubble territory):

1) Low interest rates resulting in high stock prices. If for some reason interest rates go up again, stock prices will fall - and yes, this might well end up like a popping bubble if it is badly managed (stampeding investors if its a surprise);

2) Some companies do have in my view likely significantly lower earnings capacity than their current share price would imply (i.e markets are too optimistic) and some of these companies are listed on the NZX. AIR would be one example, but there are clearly more. If reality shows through I would expect these bubbles to burst.

Just some observations ... it does not make sense to me that Tesla has e.g. a higher market cap than Daimler, Volkswagen and Toyota together. All three companies do have a lot of experience to build high quality cars ... Tesla has not ... and building electric cars is neither brain surgery nor rocket science ... so - here is a bubble, if you are looking for it.

Looking at the NZX ... I'd say that a number of directly or indirectly tourism related stocks are too dear - and some might well be in a bubble.

tesla is more a power company than a car company. tesla will disrupt the power sector industry thats why its in such big demand people used to think it was just cars and would never make money and they failed to see how big a disruptor its going to be going forward. they relise now

[Ferg]

Cathie Woods talks about this; how Tesla is not a car company but a technology disrupter. I'm impressed with her fund returns but I'm still on the fence as to whether she is a) clever and lucky, b) clever and a good sales person, c) clever and prescient or d) all of the above.

tesla is more a power company than a car company. tesla will disrupt the power sector industry thats why its in such big demand people used to think it was just cars and would never make money and they failed to see how big a disruptor its going to be going forward. they relise now

[bull....]

Cathie Woods talks about this; how Tesla is not a car company but a technology disrupter. I'm impressed with her fund returns but I'm still on the fence as to whether she is a) clever and lucky, b) clever and a good sales person, c) clever and prescient or d) all of the above.

good returns , but like you say was it from just riding the bull?

[Biscuit]

Cathie Woods talks about this; how Tesla is not a car company but a technology disrupter. I'm impressed with her fund returns but I'm still on the fence as to whether she is a) clever and lucky, b) clever and a good sales person, c) clever and prescient or d) all of the above.

Probably all of the above. The ARK invest big ideas pdf is worth a glance.

[winner69]

WallStreetBets has been shut down (temporarily?) on Reddit.

Wall St ‘influence’ I guess

[BlackPeter]

Power companies?..recent market correcting suggests they got well over-valued

True, but I recon this has something to do with low interest rates. At the moment investors are happy if it takes the company more than 50 years to return their capital (which is comparable to less than 2 percent interest on a bond).

I am sure if interest rates would double, we won't need Houdini to see the prices of power companies shrink :

[BlackPeter]

tesla is more a power company than a car company. tesla will disrupt the power sector industry thats why its in such big demand people used to think it was just cars and would never make money and they failed to see how big a disruptor its going to be going forward. they relise now

Only time will tell whether Tesla will ever be able to pay back all the money people invested into it. I won't hold my breath.

[bull....]

WallStreetBets has been shut down (temporarily?) on Reddit.

Wall St ‘influence’ I guess

because they been flooded with new members over 3 million now make this site kinda small eh