Black Monday

[JohnnyTheHorse]

trump mobilizing troops , futures falling at the moment , watching bitcoin 10k breakup

Nearly every day futures are red they turn green by open. Has been incredible stuff.

[bull....]

Nearly every day futures are red they turn green by open. Has been incredible stuff.

so true , the prop brigade doing a good job. but all good things cant last forever even money printing

[Poet]

Amazing ... the US on fire (pun intended), new Coronavirus infections (on a seven day basis) at their highest level ever and the markets keep rising.

I think it was Marie Antoinette who famously said "let them eat cake" when she heard the revolt of the hungry masses. Just some angry mob - nothing to see here.

It didn't took long after that event that said mob did help her to displace her empty head (and other heads of the governing class) using one of these French cutting tools (guillotine).

Just wondering when it is the time of the US swamp monster to follow her example? Lets think - what might this do to the stock markets ...? Ah right - another all time high .

Fake news though, unfortunately
https://www.britannica.com/story/did...-them-eat-cake

[kiora]

"Westpac economists say there are some signs the economy is recovering better than expected from the lockdown and they are now doubting that unemployment will get quite as high as they had been predicting.

In their Weekly Economic Commentary they say their forecast was that the economy would settle 6% below the pre-Covid-19 level after the lockdown was lifted.

"But some recent data is tentatively suggesting that the economic situation may not be quite as severe as that. This has seen some easing in the risk-off sentiment that had permeated through financial markets in recent months."

The economists say retail spending rebounded "surprisingly vigorously" after the lockdown was lifted."
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...omic-situation

[Balance]

ASB Bank joins the more positive (or less pessimistic) commentary with the unexpectedly better than expected rebound in NZ economic activity :

Business confidence continued to lift throughout May and ASB card spending data show that spending has recovered to around pre-COVID levels.

This quick recovery in spending, coupled with a turning point in both business and consumer sentiment, is certainly a positive development.


Looking back to Q1 and the early days of the global pandemic, the first estimates of Q1 GDP from across the world have trickled in over recent weeks to give an early taste of the economic damage inflicted by the pandemic.

Business confidence continued to lift throughout May (as confirmed by the full May results of the ANZ business outlook survey) and we expect to see further improvement in business confidence over June.

Recent developments can be described as marginally better than expected (albeit from some exceptionally low expectations) with NZ looking like it eliminated the virus from our shores and real-time activity indicators – such as card spending, electricity demand and traffic volumes – suggesting activity may have bounced back more quickly than we had expected during Level 2.

ASB card spending data show that spending has recovered to around pre-COVID levels. Certainly, there is a lot of lost ground that will never be recouped (i.e. all those missed weekend brunches and weekday coffees).

Nonetheless, this quick recovery in spending, coupled with a turning point in both business and consumer sentiment, is certainly a positive development. This author can personally report that shops were very busy over Queen’s Birthday Weekend, with one customer service assistant noting Saturday morning had felt busier than Christmas.

[clip]

I went to the new 277 Westfield in Auckland on Monday for a haircut and it was the busiest I've ever seen it

[Balance]

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/worri...090000217.html

Now that markets have recovered sufficiently to mute the doom merchants, time to contemplate where the markets go from here.

Slow steady rise from here with the Feds & other Central Banks guaranteeing liquidity and plenty of cheap money - seems to be the consensus.

BUT

Watch for a second wave - if it happens, all hell will break loose. So stay alert and stay safe. Only invest as much as you can sleep well at nights.

[blackcap]

With forward looking markets I agree with what one financial pundit said "either the fundamentals catch up with where the market is, or the market catches up to the fundamentals" I still see the later as more likely. As a number of papers have demonstrated it's the virus that is a significant driver of the economic downturns, not just the lockdowns. So, even as lockdowns lift, economic downturns will persist. I dont think it will take a second wave for markets to head south again, I still belive it is a matter of time. That said, its pretty clear that in the face of all that there are wonderful investing opportunities to be had. Just gotta pick the right sectors. GL all!

How is the virus a driver of economic downturn? That just does not make sense. The lockdowns (because of the virus) are the driver. If there were no lockdowns then economic activity globally (albeit with some extra mainly elderly dying) would not really have had much of a dent. Unless I am missing something obvious.

[mfd]

How is the virus a driver of economic downturn? That just does not make sense. The lockdowns (because of the virus) are the driver. If there were no lockdowns then economic activity globally (albeit with some extra mainly elderly dying) would not really have had much of a dent. Unless I am missing something obvious.

Natural fear of the disease will do a lot of the work a formal lockdown does. People will still be working from home where possible, avoiding public places, avoiding shops as much as possible. A large section of the population who are at risk will be in their own self-imposed lockdowns.

[blackcap]

Natural fear of the disease will do a lot of the work a formal lockdown does. People will still be working from home where possible, avoiding public places, avoiding shops as much as possible. A large section of the population who are at risk will be in their own self-imposed lockdowns.

Fair call. I guess I don't fall in that category (natural fear of covid) so it does not affect me. But you are right there are a lot of the population that do fit that category so had not thought about self imposed isolation etc. That does make sense.