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13-02-2018, 09:20 AM
#4071
Originally Posted by fish
Choosing stocks at times like this are critical.We all have our ways but which are more likely to work?
I dont trust charts or statistics.
To me the most important is fundamental value-by that i dont mean NTA but what future earnings are going to do-or likely to do.
It intrigues me that you are thinking of buying chorus.I sold out sometime ago feeling there was too much risk from wireless
With data demand increasing so fast I feel this risk has reduced.
Could you be kind enough to summarise why you think chorus is a good buy?
Basically a divvy play, stripped a big one last September then sold,PE looks fine to me at current prices,most of these core infrastructure companies are low or no growth, so only really divvy plays, yet at the same time, completely essential to the smooth functioning of our country. PS-Wireless has limitations especially for business and remember CNU will be maintaning the fibre network once it is completely rolled out along with the old copper network.
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13-02-2018, 09:28 AM
#4072
Originally Posted by winner69
If you are selling a portion of your portfolio as a risk mitigation strategy you'll regret it sometimes. If The market goes up, you'll regret selling anything. If it collapses, you'll regret not selling more.
Not fair is it
Hopefully history will record last week as a much needed sharp short painful correction - necessary to blow all that froth off the market.
Suspect many newies will take a while to come back to the market after being spooked into selling out, good as well as bad stocks.
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13-02-2018, 09:45 AM
#4073
I'd like to see a full Bear develop.
History shows they don't last long (compared to Bulls).
The hit to my modest portfolio would not be great compared to the upside as, in the near future, I have considerable sums to add and it would be nice to start from a lower level.
Breaking this bull run has the added advantage that people will stop being worried about when it will end - it will be a new Bull with a 'clean' slate.
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13-02-2018, 09:50 AM
#4074
Originally Posted by dobby41
I'd like to see a full Bear develop.
History shows they don't last long (compared to Bulls).
.
What about the 16 year bear from 1970 to 1986? or the 19 year Bear in the early 1900's? But yes recently there have not been long bear times so we may well be due for a bear.... https://virtueofselfishinvesting.s3.....png?link=mktw
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13-02-2018, 09:54 AM
#4075
I don't see any Bears taking up residence just yet, expecting the market to finish higher at the end of the year, might go and have a Beer now though.
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13-02-2018, 11:12 AM
#4076
Member
Originally Posted by blackcap
What about the 16 year bear from 1970 to 1986?
Are you sure? I remember a huge bull market in the 1980s until Oct 87
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13-02-2018, 11:19 AM
#4077
Originally Posted by freddagg
Are you sure? I remember a huge bull market in the 1980s until Oct 87
Global context... Dow Jones, and my dates were a bit wrong, 1966 to 1982 would be more precise..... Still a 16 year Bear.
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13-02-2018, 11:36 AM
#4078
Originally Posted by blackcap
There are always exceptions!
There are various sources of bear and bull lengths but they are similar in the result (not orders different).
This one shows that the average bear lasts 1.4yrs and drops 41%
Whereas the average bull lasts 9 years and increases 480%.
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&rct=...HgDF3t1nJWmFku
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13-02-2018, 11:53 AM
#4079
Originally Posted by blackcap
Global context... Dow Jones, and my dates were a bit wrong, 1966 to 1982 would be more precise..... Still a 16 year Bear.
Not according to the S&P500 graph I linked to.
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13-02-2018, 12:02 PM
#4080
Originally Posted by dobby41
Not according to the S&P500 graph I linked to.
Yeah I see what you mean. So what do you call it when over a 16 year period the market only moves sideways or only marginally up? That to me is not a bull market. That is a bear. We have had a huge bull for the last few years and yes the paradigm may be different, but I am not discounting a long PE constricting Bear either. Time will tell.
Last edited by blackcap; 13-02-2018 at 12:08 PM.
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