Black Monday

[Baa_Baa]

SPX500 fell 34 points a few hours ago so yeh a wave has started on some scale.

I think the correction might take a while to get over. By a while I mean at least a few months, maybe even six.
I got presented a survey on my reaction to this months events asking me whether they had changed my investment strategy. I concluded that they had a little, but not that much really.
Maybe it is time for more caution by those who are being quite reckless?

Take it day by day, imo. It's not the causal. It's the effect. The nimble are prevalent and the short term is good for locking in profits or buying depending on ones viewpoint and circumstances.

[bull....]

got our profit taking now on those jobs numbers

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/11/02/us-c...-expected.html

very strong numbers will mean the fed will keep raising rates.

the s&p 500 topped out at resistance around 2745 and also at the top of our declining trend channel from the highs. would need to go back above 2745 for me to think it wont go back to the test the lows soon.

[Bjauck]

Obama was like a politically correct dish cloth.Lol

Dish cloths always have a good use. You always need a dishcloth for cleaning. You don’t always eat or need whatever created the mess in the first place!

[bull....]

major event risk next week with the mid terms in the us

my thoughts

market thinks split house/ senate - market falls initially

trump wins everything - major rally

democrats win everything - major market fall

[BlackPeter]

major event risk next week with the mid terms in the us

my thoughts

market thinks split house/ senate - market falls initially

trump wins everything - major rally

democrats win everything - major market fall

Markets hate uncertainty. No matter how the dice fall the market will in my view rally afterwards (with this uncertainty removed).

But if you really want to distinguish - Trump fuelled the economy while it was already in overdrive. Keeping him unchecked means potentially another sugar rush (his reelection-bribe), still higher debts and more and more tariffs strangling the economy. Bad for markets. Even the Koch brothers support now the Democrates - while they are evil and selfish, they have a brain and know how to use it.

Trump is poision for the markets - anything keeping his feral instints under control must be good for the economy and for the markets.

[blackcap]

Markets hate uncertainty. No matter how the dice fall the market will in my view rally afterwards (with this uncertainty removed).

But if you really want to distinguish - Trump fuelled the economy while it was already in overdrive. Keeping him unchecked means potentially another sugar rush (his reelection-bribe), still higher debts and more and more tariffs strangling the economy. Bad for markets. Even the Koch brothers support now the Democrates - while they are evil and selfish, they have a brain and know how to use it.

Trump is poision for the markets - anything keeping his feral instints under control must be good for the economy and for the markets.

I think you are suffering from TDS BP.

That said, markets do like certainty and not uncertainty. But the huge jobs numbers out last night certainly raised the risk that interest rates would rise again.

Currently about a 1 in 6 chance Dems win Senate, 2 in 3 chance they take house. (according to financial markets)

[Blue Skies]

Markets hate uncertainty. No matter how the dice fall the market will in my view rally afterwards (with this uncertainty removed).

But if you really want to distinguish - Trump fuelled the economy while it was already in overdrive. Keeping him unchecked means potentially another sugar rush (his reelection-bribe), still higher debts and more and more tariffs strangling the economy. Bad for markets. Even the Koch brothers support now the Democrates - while they are evil and selfish, they have a brain and know how to use it.

Trump is poision for the markets - anything keeping his feral instints under control must be good for the economy and for the markets.

Just been talking to friends who live in DC. They say the whole place feels like a powder keg ready to blow up. Countries so divided, so much tension. Security way way tighter, Secret Service Police on foot, bikes, cars everywhere, even how close the public can get to the White House has been pushed much further back, first time they've ever felt uncomfortable in DC. I thought things would calm down after Nov 6, but now not so sure.
Would not be good for the markets if outcome sparked some major civil unrest. Trump surely the most divisive president in history.

[arc]

And it continues, crime-coin enables f*** examples of humanity to do whatever... With obscurity and immunity.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/cri...coin-scam?rm=m

https://www.stuff.co.nz/the-press/10...-ransom-online

[drcjp]

Buffett up to his old election cycle tricks again. This time mid-terms. What does the canny old fox know?

[BlackPeter]

Buffett up to his old election cycle tricks again. This time mid-terms. What does the canny old fox know?

He might have realised that - no matter what the outcome of the elections - uncertainty will be lower after it (because people will know the outcome). Markets hate uncertainty - and prefer certainty. Prices will go up as soon as the results are announced .

Apart from that - the more likley outcome of the elections is that Trump will be checked by a democratic house. This will be good for markets - and raining into his counterproductive trade wars.