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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #5341
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    no vote for brexit

    in the article blog they give graph of what happens now

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-brexit-update
    bull

  2. #5342
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    back above 2800 - 2812 resistance lets see how we close , a close above needs another day or two then maybe new highs are coming. see dju at all time highs
    bull

  3. #5343
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    Financial markets have fully priced in the likelihood the RBA will cut its cash rate by September and a 50 percent chance of another cut by the end of the year.
    The market has priced in a 70 percent chance of an official cash rate cut in New Zealand within the next 12 months.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...nzs-toplis.htm

    totally aus will lower there rates . im picking rbnz will lower theres in tandem with the higher bank capital requirements. anyway all good for holding utilities
    bull

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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Financial markets have fully priced in the likelihood the RBA will cut its cash rate by September and a 50 percent chance of another cut by the end of the year.
    The market has priced in a 70 percent chance of an official cash rate cut in New Zealand within the next 12 months.

    http://www.scoop.co.nz/stories/BU190...nzs-toplis.htm

    totally aus will lower there rates . im picking rbnz will lower theres in tandem with the higher bank capital requirements. anyway all good for holding utilities
    You may want to read the below as to why RBNZ may not follow RBA rate cut...

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...very-different

  5. #5345
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    Quote Originally Posted by sb9 View Post
    You may want to read the below as to why RBNZ may not follow RBA rate cut...

    https://www.interest.co.nz/opinion/9...very-different
    that economist forgets to mention the nzd/aud forex rate would probably go over 1 to 1 if interest rates in nz become more attractive than aus. this would cause further contraction in nz gdp as exporters slowly become uncompetitive across the ditch and lay off staff in nz and cut costs etc to remain in the game. also he is placing all his eggs on the nz housing market/ construction staying strong. but as we already see developers are going bust all over the place so there wont be enough of them left soon to maintain the big construction end of the market there this part of construction will decline
    bull

  6. #5346
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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    that economist forgets to mention the nzd/aud forex rate would probably go over 1 to 1 if interest rates in nz become more attractive than aus. this would cause further contraction in nz gdp as exporters slowly become uncompetitive across the ditch and lay off staff in nz and cut costs etc to remain in the game. also he is placing all his eggs on the nz housing market/ construction staying strong. but as we already see developers are going bust all over the place so there wont be enough of them left soon to maintain the big construction end of the market there this part of construction will decline
    Agreed!!

    I think a lot of people forget that the Central Bank interest rate is not specifically for Housing. Tho Low interest rates continue, they are actually a byproduct of Central Banks around the world trying to protect businesses/Economy from a collapse. This was done by lowering their funding costs. Allowing more time to pay back debt.

    One of the other functions of Interest rates is to control imports/export of a given country.. Higher the dollar is in a country, the more people tend to import. But usually drops the demands for their products.. The lower the rate is, the more countries export, but obviously people stop importing as much due to costs.

    This control is done via the dollar/exchange rate. Which can be influenced via interest rates. But by increasing/decreasing interest rates you are able to keep the country competitive in the global market place.

    Now lets take the extreme example of the AUD dropping to 1AUD to 2NZD.. (New Zealand exports a lot to Australia. They are one of our major trading partners)

    Central bank will need to react.Their mandate is stability, and need to maintain the order of things so to speak.Hence will cut the interest rate to keep the country competitive.. that is why the whole world cut interest rates when the Fed did.. to maintain competitive advantages in the market place. Without such actions the local Economy would suffer.
    Last edited by NeverQuestion; 16-03-2019 at 01:07 PM.

  7. #5347
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    Seems the next few years going to be bad if NZ follows Australia. The main headlines on SMH just now.

    House prices tumble even faster than during the GFC
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...19-p515eb.html

    And this headline is bad but only about tech stocks

    'Reality has to kick in': Ominous warning about high-flying Australian shares
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...19-p515bi.html
    ”You can't cross the sea merely by standing and staring at the water.” -Rabindranath Tagore

  8. #5348
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    NZ has a shortage of houses, Aus has an oversupply. We will be ok and the oversupply in aus will balance out given a bit of time according to John Ryders in his latest newsletter(thread for this).He is quite bullish for the year in fact. Worth a read lots of stats from around the world too.

  9. #5349
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    Quote Originally Posted by Joshuatree View Post
    NZ has a shortage of houses, Aus has an oversupply. We will be ok and the oversupply in aus will balance out given a bit of time according to John Ryders in his latest newsletter(thread for this).He is quite bullish for the year in fact. Worth a read lots of stats from around the world too.
    No shortage around here many houses for sale ... it's the price that is the problem.... and why they are still on the market
    And we have one of the tightest rental markets in the country
    People don't have ideas, ideas have people

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    Quote Originally Posted by winner69 View Post
    Seems the next few years going to be bad if NZ follows Australia. The main headlines on SMH just now.

    House prices tumble even faster than during the GFC
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...19-p515eb.html

    And this headline is bad but only about tech stocks

    'Reality has to kick in': Ominous warning about high-flying Australian shares
    https://www.smh.com.au/business/mark...19-p515bi.html
    You should have a look into John Ryders latest newsletter (http://www.globalnews.co.nz/). He reccons the global economy will come later this year out of stall modus and expects the first green shoots soon. US housing market strong, Australian housing market might still drop (until demand catches up with lots of ex-speculative supply) but he certainly does not predict a crash for the NZ housing market. Interest rates down, continuous demand (more people) and low new house building rates make it unlikely for NZ house prices to follow Australia.
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  11. #5351
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    Quote Originally Posted by BlackPeter View Post
    You should have a look into John Ryders latest newsletter (http://www.globalnews.co.nz/). He reccons the global economy will come later this year out of stall modus and expects the first green shoots soon. US housing market strong, Australian housing market might still drop (until demand catches up with lots of ex-speculative supply) but he certainly does not predict a crash for the NZ housing market. Interest rates down, continuous demand (more people) and low new house building rates make it unlikely for NZ house prices to follow Australia.
    hey thanks for the summary BP
    I always read his newsletter but have yet to do so at this stage - I am quite busy at the moment.

    But my charting reviews have made me start to turn bullish again recently, and I was looking for a thread opposite to 'Black Monday' but couldn't find one.
    For clarity, nothing I say is advice....

  12. #5352
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    Quote Originally Posted by peat View Post
    hey thanks for the summary BP
    I always read his newsletter but have yet to do so at this stage - I am quite busy at the moment.

    But my charting reviews have made me start to turn bullish again recently, and I was looking for a thread opposite to 'Black Monday' but couldn't find one.
    I use this thread to make some investment decisions. And so far, so good.

    Markets in the short term are driven by greed, fear and hope.

    This thread 'Black Monday' aptly reaffirms what any psychologist knows - Fear is the most powerful emotion of the three in terms of impact on the market.

    https://money.cnn.com/data/fear-and-greed/

    As Warren Buffet stated : "Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful."
    Last edited by Balance; 19-03-2019 at 05:22 PM.

  13. #5353
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    Fed holds line on rates, says no more hikes ahead this year

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/fed-...unchanged.html

    confirmed back to low rates for much longer , bond yields tumbling, even in nz makes those utilities yields in nz look so good
    bull

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    Quote Originally Posted by bull.... View Post
    Fed holds line on rates, says no more hikes ahead this year

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/20/fed-...unchanged.html

    confirmed back to low rates for much longer , bond yields tumbling, even in nz makes those utilities yields in nz look so good
    Fed sees strong economy = rate hikes are good news, stocks soar.

    Fed sees slowing growth = no rate hikes which is good news, stocks soar.

    Whatever the Fed says or does, and however well or not well the economy is doing, it's great news.

  15. #5355
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Fed sees strong economy = rate hikes are good news, stocks soar.

    Fed sees slowing growth = no rate hikes which is good news, stocks soar.

    Whatever the Fed says or does, and however well or not well the economy is doing, it's great news.
    actually the fed raising rates and saying they were going to keep raising them was a big cause of the big sell off end of last yr , since they have reversed there position the market has rallied.
    bull

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