Black Monday

[bull....]

I wouldn't worry central banks must be ready to ride to the rescue with negative interest rates and easy money. The current paradigm is that money is worthless and we need to protect the people in finance and the people they lend money to. Any federal reserve pronouncement that interest rate increases will cease is bound to boost markets 3-4%

actually could be interpreted if the fed stops hiking that they are worried about growth , so a temporary boost in stock prices is just another opportunity to sell

[bull....]

Morgan Stanley: We are in a bear market

https://edition.cnn.com/2018/11/19/i...ley/index.html

[Aaron]

actually could be interpreted if the fed stops hiking that they are worried about growth , so a temporary boost in stock prices is just another opportunity to sell

I like your negative spin, it could be that everyone's outlook has changed and even central bank intervention won't prevent a correction.

[Blue Skies]

Good article CNN Business, why the Dow is dropping, briefly 1) fading impact of tax cuts 2) higher borrowing costs due to Fed. But JP Morgan thinks overdone & with way things are now, may hold Fed hike & Trump likely to pull back from any sort of trade war with China as any hint of recession last thing he wants to add to his reputation.

[Lewylewylewy]

If a bear is snowballed negative sentiment, the question is, is there enough (and sustained) negative sentiment?

You might think so reading this press, and in previous years i would have believed that enough press can change minds, but we live in a clickbait world now and there's a lot of crying wolf.

However, I'm a little bear because i think that the press coupled with some pr results could sway people. Anyway, there's enough dumb stuff going on in nz and abroad that won't help the situation were a recession to appear.

Where do others sit right now?

[arc]

If a bear is snowballed negative sentiment, the question is, is there enough (and sustained) negative sentiment? .... Where do others sit right now?

I remember making a comment many months ago (mid 2017 ?) about the machine finding an unusual pattern in global stocks. Multiple large companies in multiple countries all dropped by approximately the same amount within a 72 hour period. Someone instituted a global sell down. It happened twice again about a month apart. Within a couple of months (end of 2017 beginning 2018) global trends started moving sideways... but of course only reviewable on hindsight.

Not saying that one person/company or Nation? is responsible but interesting trends in interesting times raise interesting questions.

[kiora]

I remember making a comment many months ago (mid 2017 ?) about the machine finding an unusual pattern in global stocks. Multiple large companies in multiple countries all dropped by approximately the same amount within a 72 hour period. Someone instituted a global sell down. It happened twice again about a month apart. Within a couple of months (end of 2017 beginning 2018) global trends started moving sideways... but of course only reviewable on hindsight.

Not saying that one person/company or Nation? is responsible but interesting trends in interesting times raise interesting questions.

This could be.Watch correlation NZ/USD & NZX

[Bobdn]

I have some cash in the bank for the first time since March 2009. Strange feeliing to go from being 100 per invested for almost 10 years to now having a reasonably big cash buffer. I always found it easier buying shares than selling them.

I'm still mostly invested and don't want to see a full scale sell off however at least I have some dry powder WHEN the balloon goes up.

[Blue Skies]

IMO what comes out of the meeting between Trump & Xi Jinping in Argentina at the end of this month at the G20 will really affect the way the market goes, esp after ramped up posturing leading up to & including APEC.
However, let's not forget there's a US election which Trump & Republicans will be desperate to win just 24 months away, November 2020, which also coincides with our next General election also Nov 2020.
Trump just showed he's prepared to overlook the Saudi problem in the interests of the economy, an indication of his set of priorities, & with elections just over horizon i'ld be surprised if he doesn't come to a GREAT deal with China.

[BlackPeter]

IMO what comes out of the meeting between Trump & Xi Jinping in Argentina at the end of this month at the G20 will really affect the way the market goes, esp after ramped up posturing leading up to & including APEC.
However, let's not forget there's a US election which Trump & Republicans will be desperate to win just 24 months away, November 2020, which also coincides with our next General election also Nov 2020.
Trump just showed he's prepared to overlook the Saudi problem in the interests of the economy, an indication of his set of priorities, & with elections just over horizon i'ld be surprised if he doesn't come to a GREAT deal with China.

Lets hope the Chinese don't know about that ;