Black Monday

[Beagle]

For what its worth I have 45% cash, (might go to 50% cash over the holidays) and the other 55% is heavily skewed towards defensive shares in the categories mentioned in post #5072. My thinking is its going to be extremely difficult for Trump to get any forward momentum from the Chinese on their theft of intellectual property impasse as this sort of behaviour is deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche as being normal. Copyright in Chinese means we have the right to copy what you have done lol
Good on Trump for having a go to resolve this, I suppose, but the Americans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they think they can change habitual behaviour that's been going on since Adam was a boy. This is why my portfolio is defensive going into 2019.

[Filthy]

There has already been a significant PE contraction on world markets this year and arguably all the news about slowing growth in 2019 is already fully priced in.

Yes, a lot of good NZX companies are now well off their highs over the last few months.
Ignoring the likes of SPK, IFT, MFT etc most of the index is probably down about 20% already.... a healthy correction?
Assuming low interest rates in NZ remain to 2020 and beyond, it looks a little overcooked.
I really cant see another 60% drop from here - macro is uncertain, but geez its not that bad is it?
Might see interest rates in the US start heading back down again if growth slows.... too quick too soon?

last few months.JPG

[bull....]

For what its worth I have 45% cash, (might go to 50% cash over the holidays) and the other 55% is heavily skewed towards defensive shares in the categories mentioned in post #5072. My thinking is its going to be extremely difficult for Trump to get any forward momentum from the Chinese on their theft of intellectual property impasse as this sort of behaviour is deeply ingrained in the Chinese psyche as being normal. Copyright in Chinese means we have the right to copy what you have done lol
Good on Trump for having a go to resolve this, I suppose, but the Americans are setting themselves up for disappointment if they think they can change habitual behaviour that's been going on since Adam was a boy. This is why my portfolio is defensive going into 2019.

yes im defensive thinking ablout next yr too ... at the moment could change at any time lol but my thinking is nz will slow down , i find it un nerving nz share market isnt keeping pace to the downside with overseas markets makes me think the day of reckoning will come badly the longer it takes. why

trade wars will affect china make them slow down
australia property market slowdown is getting bad

both of these economies are nz biggest trade partners

[winner69]

Yes, a lot of good NZX companies are now well off their highs over the last few months.
Ignoring the likes of SPK, IFT, MFT etc most of the index is probably down about 20% already.... a healthy correction?
Assuming low interest rates in NZ remain to 2020 and beyond, it looks a little overcooked.
I really cant see another 60% drop from here - macro is uncertain, but geez its not that bad is it?
Might see interest rates in the US start heading back down again if growth slows.... too quick too soon?

last few months.JPG

Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened

For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen

Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh

[Beagle]

Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened

For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen

Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh

You could change your name to Bear
Filthy - No I don't subscribe to a massive selloff from here but things do look pretty challenging going into 2019 which is why I have positioned my portfolio defensivly.

[bull....]

us futures have dropped below the support of 2620 - 30

[Peitro]

On the cusp, hopefully Santa gets stuck halfway down the chimney.

US inflation data out this week be crucial

[NeverQuestion]

We are 9 days away from the Fed rate decision. Will they or wont they?

I'm picking they will raise. Most the economists I follow are talking about being almost at the upper bounds of where the Fed wants to be and a rate hike is warranted. December is also a month people are too distracted by xmas and new years to care.

Interesting times ahead!! Stocking up on Yen!

[moka]

Bit like 2007/2008 in that many stocks on the NZ market were already heading down before the big crash happened

For the astute ones most stocks had already been sold one by one as they reached sell points ....and we didn’t even know that a big crash was about to happen

Pretty similar to then is how I see it ...spooky eh

I see it like musical chairs, no one wants to be the last man standing, so the big players are getting out and that takes months. The market won’t go up unless the big players are buying. I see us heading for another GFC, the big US banks are bigger than they were in 2007, few of the reforms required to stop another GFC happening have been put in place, there is risky lending and behaviour. There is more debt now than in 2007. It is ten years on from GFC. A crisis happens about every ten years - 1987 crash and in 1998 Long-Term Capital Management Hedge Fund Crisis.
To save the U.S. banking system, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York President William McDonough convinced 15 banks to bail out LTCM. They spent $3.5 billion in return for a 90 percent ownership of the fund.
That was the precedent for the Fed's bailout role during the 2008 financial crisis. Once financial firms realized that the Fed would bail them out, they became more willing to take risks.
https://www.thebalance.com/long-term-capital-crisis-3306240

Who knows what will trigger the crisis, or when it will happen but pressure is building.

[bull....]

broke support heading for test now of feb lows

also important china attacks apple in trade war

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/10/chin...nst-apple.html

brexit vote cancelled means more uncertainty