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Thread: Black Monday

  1. #6871
    Legend Balance's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Entrep View Post
    Anecdotally I've been hearing massive institutional selling from brokers and my wife tells me FB is full of people wanting to buy shares because they are cheap.
    FB people do not determine the direction of the market - the institutions do.

    Many stocks were oversold - that's why the market is going up. As simple as that imo.

  2. #6872
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    Quote Originally Posted by Aaron View Post
    I wish I had your conviction, still hoping for another leg down based on past crisis. That said I have waited over a decade for the next leg down in the 2008/09 crisis.

    Is there worse economic news to come, still seems like early days to me.Central banks going full retard, at what point will there be a loss of faith in currency? Everyone getting out of dollars and into shares would indicate a loss of faith already. Damn you Balance I was happy waiting a couple of months, now I am not sure again.
    Have some fun trading while you wait. Bought 15000 MEL on close yesterday to get the div. but decided to sell them and made over double the div. 19c profit for 10 min work.

  3. #6873
    Senior Member Entrep's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    FB people do not determine the direction of the market - the institutions do.

    Many stocks were oversold - that's why the market is going up. As simple as that imo.
    Didn't you just claim individuals got rekt panicking and selling? So they caused the dumping on Monday?

  4. #6874
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    How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued. I'm not a trader in any way but I've sold and repurchased the same shares. I now own 30% more OCA shares for less capital tied up and a similar percentage of HGH for similar money laid down. I didn't sell my WBC shares (doh!) but brought the average price down to $20 (now looking at massive DRP growth long term). I look at it as a time for housekeeping/spring cleaning. Getting rid of ones that have done their dash (MET) and buying others I've had my eye on a while (BRM) as an example

    I was also very heavily exposed to the retirment sector so will slowly unwind that in this market too

    I also moved my Kiwisaver into conservative about 2 weeks ago and back into growth last friday. I've lost 6% on these funds and the fund hasn't booked in the big gains the last 3 days. I should be up quite a bit. If I left as is (like the experts are saying) then the fund I moved out of lost 34% from when I moved. Lucky break maybe?

    What I have learnt is I know very little about buying and selling timing. I tended to sell on days where there was big drops and buy on days when it was rising. If I could have a bit more skill just on this timing I think I'd be 10% better off currently. I'm not meaning trying to time the top or the bottom just better execution of the plan - i.e. I decide to sell. Do I drip amount in to a rising day or dump it and move on. Reading depth better is something I need to understand better. I also ended up buying more than I wanted one day purley because I forgot about a buy order - noob!

  5. #6875
    I like peanuts... youngatheart's Avatar
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    I can't help but think that over the weekend in the US, as reports flood in of the tsunami of deaths from the CV virus as well as the sheer numbers of the now unemployed hit home, that it is going to have a massive negative impact on the Dow on their Monday (our Tuesday)....

    But what would I know? Didn't expect the Dow to rise after news of a record 3.3 million unemployed either....

  6. #6876
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    Quote Originally Posted by youngatheart View Post
    I can't help but think that over the weekend in the US, as reports flood in of the tsunami of deaths from the CV virus as well as the sheer numbers of the now unemployed hit home, that it is going to have a massive negative impact on the Dow on their Monday (our Tuesday)....

    But what would I know? Didn't expect the Dow to rise after news of a record 3.3 million unemployed either....
    I am thinking the same, see they now have the most cases in the world, and over 13k new cases - surprised futures are still positive (just)

    us new cases.jpg

  7. #6877
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    Quote Originally Posted by clip View Post
    I am thinking the same, see they now have the most cases in the world, and over 13k new cases - surprised futures are still positive (just)

    us new cases.jpg
    From a market point of view all these deaths of "majority" old people is probably a huge positive looking long term. So not really surprised at the futures. Markets have absolutely no empathy or feelings.

  8. #6878
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    Quote Originally Posted by clip View Post
    I am thinking the same, see they now have the most cases in the world, and over 13k new cases - surprised futures are still positive (just)

    us new cases.jpg
    + another 14000 cases in the last 24 hours, and another 174 deaths
    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

  9. #6879
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    I think the next trend downward in markets will be a more prolonged episode. The Markets initial response was a panic type situation reacting to the news and unknown but the next one will be in response to the realities of how hard this is hitting and as such I suspect will be more sobering.

  10. #6880
    always learning ... BlackPeter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by workingdad View Post
    I think the next trend downward in markets will be a more prolonged episode. The Markets initial response was a panic type situation reacting to the news and unknown but the next one will be in response to the realities of how hard this is hitting and as such I suspect will be more sobering.
    I guess nobody can predict how this will play out, but I agree - based on the current knowledge your assumption has some merit.

    But obviously
    - if the rumors / early indications that some of the existing viral medicines can be effectively used to cure the Coronavirus are true, then we might see as well a very fast recovery.
    - if we find out that most of the population had the virus already (without symptoms) and the virus is starting to run early into herd immunity, than the picture will change violently towards positive.

    on the other hand ...
    - if we get this terrible mutation which increases mortality (not likely, but social media love to raise this option) than the first leg down will look like a walk in the sunshine ...

    Still - I am an optimist ...
    ----
    "Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future" (Niels Bohr)

  11. #6881
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    Anyone ever thought we might see a v curve? I was only thinking everyone is super negative. I donít see it, but hoped others would

  12. #6882
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ggcc View Post
    Anyone ever thought we might see a v curve? I was only thinking everyone is super negative. I don’t see it, but hoped others would
    Everyone super negative?

    Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

    Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!

  13. #6883
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    Quote Originally Posted by dabsman View Post
    How I've looked at this market is I hold a few shares that are very high conviction either for growth or dividend. I've used it to average down and have ended up holding substantially more for the similar level of investment. I have also jumped into another couple of shares I have been watching for some time but have felt were overvalued. I'm not a trader in any way but I've sold and repurchased the same shares. I now own 30% more OCA shares for less capital tied up and a similar percentage of HGH for similar money laid down. I didn't sell my WBC shares (doh!) but brought the average price down to $20 (now looking at massive DRP growth long term). I look at it as a time for housekeeping/spring cleaning. Getting rid of ones that have done their dash (MET) and buying others I've had my eye on a while (BRM) as an example

    I was also very heavily exposed to the retirment sector so will slowly unwind that in this market too

    I also moved my Kiwisaver into conservative about 2 weeks ago and back into growth last friday. I've lost 6% on these funds and the fund hasn't booked in the big gains the last 3 days. I should be up quite a bit. If I left as is (like the experts are saying) then the fund I moved out of lost 34% from when I moved. Lucky break maybe?

    What I have learnt is I know very little about buying and selling timing. I tended to sell on days where there was big drops and buy on days when it was rising. If I could have a bit more skill just on this timing I think I'd be 10% better off currently. I'm not meaning trying to time the top or the bottom just better execution of the plan - i.e. I decide to sell. Do I drip amount in to a rising day or dump it and move on. Reading depth better is something I need to understand better. I also ended up buying more than I wanted one day purley because I forgot about a buy order - noob!

    Lol - don't feel bad. I am a relative newby to 'investing' and put in some really low buy offers (at the time) and then got carried away with work.

    Forgot about the orders and now am the proud owner of KMD and a whole lot more OCA shares - oops.

  14. #6884
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Everyone super negative?

    Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

    Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
    bull... has been very quiet of late. Something of a relief.

  15. #6885
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    Quote Originally Posted by Balance View Post
    Everyone super negative?

    Don't think so, Ggcc - no doomsday scenario from some of us - realistic scenarios.

    Must say there are some seriously doomsday posters however on this forum!
    A lot of people in commerce i deal with do not believe this will last longer than 8 weeks or not result in a decent recovery when it concludes, that is in contrast to the medical perspective I hear, so who will be right....

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