Black Monday

[Crackity]

Black Monday is over, dead, kaput - technically anyway.

NZX powered to a new high closing 6001 today ... woo hoo, never mind the rest of the world, who cares about them. Maybe world peace is about to break out, or all nations sovereign debt will be forgiven, or something profound like that. US stocks pausing ominously (futures down a bit), China down a bit as well tracking sideways, Europe same, Aus same .. all just background noise. Nothing to see there, move along.

Black Monday RIP. It's all upside from here, NZX leads the world. Cough.

Anyone feel like starting the Golden Wednesday thread?

[trader_jackson]

Black Monday is over, dead, kaput - technically anyway.

NZX powered to a new high closing 6001 today ... woo hoo, never mind the rest of the world, who cares about them. Maybe world peace is about to break out, or all nations sovereign debt will be forgiven, or something profound like that. US stocks pausing ominously (futures down a bit), China down a bit as well tracking sideways, Europe same, Aus same .. all just background noise. Nothing to see there, move along.

Black Monday RIP. It's all upside from here, NZX leads the world. Cough.

NZX is simply 'leading the charge'...

From a fundamental view point (ie not looking at day to day fluctuations in the markets but trends) the Eurozone area is recovering well, Britain has been recovering well for a year or so now, US earnings have so far (on the whole) been stronger than expected (not the massive drop that some people were expecting), China GDP was a bit stronger than expected (although admittedly China is probably 'the worst of the lot' right now), and Australia is 'cooling' but still not expected to 'plunge' into recession.

So all this 'doom, gloom' 'the worlds falling apart' bla bla has, given the fundamentals, faded away, everyone has come back to reality and realized things aren't terrible. But just simply not as strong as they may have been in recent times, but still 'solid' and moving forward none the less.

On another note, Australian banking results coming out (mostly) over the course of the rest of the week which should be very interesting to see how Australia has been going in the past year and the outlook commentary etc (see if things are really as bad as some people are making it out to be in Aussie)

[couta1]

Couta's portfolio has officially declared black monday over now that it's gone from minus 19% to stunning minus 9% odd today, the bears have retreated back into their caves minus a few teeth and claws ( Like I was saying a while back couldn't really see what all the fuss was about anyways)

[banter]

Are you sure you are posting this in the right thread? Its called "Black Monday" after all ... some bad news please ...

Here you go.

Since 1973, the S&P has breached the 200 MA, having been above it for at least the previous 100 days, on 13 occasions.

Now is the 13th time.

Each time it has retested the 200MA, as it is doing right now. And each time, the breakout has failed, with an average drop of 20% following, +/- 16%.

All a bit strained. My guess is things are OK...

But there is a good looking recession and 'when to get out' predictor in the same article. Maybe in a year or two.

[skid]

Lets face it...The Fed is never going to satisfy both the share market and the need to raise interest rates--sooner or later they will bite the bullet and raise them ,no matter how much us spoiled kids (shares)scream and throw our toys out of the cot.

[BlackCross]

Bit of 'Black Thursday' from Albert and cut from FTAlphaville. "The global economy will be thrown into chaos."

The deeply held wish of central bankers not to de-rail the fragile economic recovery is on
display for all to see as they grasp at the slightest excuse for their continued inaction. The
UK’s central bank governor, Mark Carney, exceeded all dovish expectations recently in his
latest rate flip-floppery. But what is this? The Fed has finally summoned up its courage and
looks set to raise rates next month. It is, however, already too late. Having delayed way
beyond the point when it might typically have raised rates in previous cycles, it has allowed an
Orc-like monster to incubate, hatch and emerge into the sunlight, snarling and ready to do
battle. Free Fed money has led to an unprecedented corporate credit binge of excess
spending, especially on share buybacks. This is even bigger than it was at the time of the
2000 technology and telecom bubble. The rotten fruit of the Fed’s seemingly innocuous
inaction will now be clear to onlookers as it is ripped to shreds on the battlefield by the
powerful credit monster. The global economy will be thrown into chaos.

This feels all so familiar. Almost no-one believes that this cycle will end badly. Central
bankers have successfully blamed the disastrous 2008 Global Financial Crisis on everybody
else except themselves. The markets have fallen for this self-serving nonsense and feel
comforted that the central banks have put in place better regulations, bigger capital buffers
and stronger fire breaks to prevent everyone else’s mistakes. But they miss the critical
point. Monetary policy remained too loose for too long in the noughties and allowed a credit
bubble to take hold which blew up in their complacent faces when they tried to normalise
interest rates. All the other actors the central bankers blame for the debacle regulators,
governments, bankers and even borrowers had only walk-on parts. Using bottom-up
company data my colleague, Andrew Lapthorne, has highlighted that this time around
loose money has put the US corporate sector centre stage in a Vortex of Debility (see chart
below). The Fed’s bubble blowing will only make a bad deflationary situation far, far worse!

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/files/201...t-11.14.23.png

http://ftalphaville.ft.com/marketslive/2015-11-12/

[Hoop]

Hmmm..Europe started a rot last night..Wall St carried it on and broke some technical support as well..It ended a huge rally up some~13% off what looked like a bullish double bottom.

..but...
the rally ended with a lower high...so the 4 month down trend continues on Wall St ....we have Friday still to go, so what will the European/Americian investors do with these broken technicals?..

NZX is treating today (Friday) trading behaviour as a "she'll be right mate...no worrries" cum Monday..If I was short term trading NZX stuff, I don't know if I would want to stay "in" over this weekend

[Hoop]

whoops................I posted too soon..AORDS just tanked at opening and NZX is responding as I type....

[skid]

I believe its locked in for December now. The big question is whether we start the second leg of the bear market, or will the markets just shrug it off this time?

Could be they shrug until a small catalyst comes along to set things going, a bit like the demonstration of something ''supersaturated'' back in chemistry class--you heat water until it dissolves more sugar than the normal saturation point (to keep it a liquid)--let it cool-(remains a liquid)-then one small tink and it instantly turns to sugar crystal.
Of course the next question is if things start to slide will they fall back on another cut to interest or QE(If only Greenspan(the God)knew what he was starting back in the day!)

[Hoop]

And its Friday the 13th - how bad can this get? Enough to start a new Black Friday thread?

Oh dear so it is.....damm!!

Oh well..I guess we can give Sheeple and Nervious Nellies a reprieve this time and instead blame the demons and the ghouls for taking fright and creating the next wave down