Black Monday

[Beagle]

Talking with a few people this week in business who seem incredulous that we're back into a quasi lockdown of sorts and there's no resurgence grants or wage subsidies. The Government can't keep propping up business forever. It is what it is. This is the year we are going to find out who is swimming naked.. Tsunami of small business closures on the horizon ?

[Panda-NZ-]

Many people here didn't want a short sharp lockdown.

So it follows that there will be restrictions like in the UK and Australia instead.

[Greekwatchdog]

Country can't afford another lockdown. Wheres the money coming from to pay for it? Rising Interest Rates with a slowing economy going to create all sorts of issues. RBNZ and govt have dug there graces and are filling it up themselves.

Looking forward to next months reporting season, will be very interesting.

[Baa_Baa]

Talking with a few people this week in business who seem incredulous that we're back into a quasi lockdown of sorts and there's no resurgence grants or wage subsidies. The Government can't keep propping up business forever. It is what it is. This is the year we are going to find out who is swimming naked.. Tsunami of small business closures on the horizon ?

The weird thing is that the 'quasi lockdowns' now are self inflicted, by businesses and agencies who are spooked and say 'work remotely if you can' (paraphrased), but if you can wing it on site do it, hopefully.

What is happening right now is that the Government is abandoning their responsibility for the economy and leaving it to industry who are all but crippled from two years of government health policy trumping economic policy.

It's bad already and getting worse quickly.

[Bobdn]

Brent is at 14 year highs. The NZD is at 52 week lows. That can't be good.

[Panda-NZ-]

Brent is at 14 year highs. The NZD is at 52 week lows. That can't be good.

You brought up the oil crisis before the edit. I don't think it's similar.

Property was x3 the average wage, rather than 10.
Most people are employed today.
Most people and govts are also in heavy debt vs the self sufficient "zero debt" economy of the 1970's.

[Bobdn]

@panda No, it might not be or it's too early to tell.

[Panda-NZ-]

So much money going to loans its surprising there's money left for discretionary stuff.

I think people are bringing forward their planned spending since they realise that life comes with an expiration date.

[clearasmud]

Most of the historical drawdowns of the SP500 bottom around -15%.

We are getting pretty close to that limit.....

....My portfolio certainly hope it does ... even my O&G plays that are seeing record high AUD Spot prices and being sold ...down ,,,

Due to the impact of lockdowns, Chinese property market, potential war in Ukraine this correction may be larger, say 20% like in 2016.
Also the market has had a great run so there is more room to correct more.

[Panda-NZ-]

The fed is planning to unload its asset book, might make it harder to small caps to get favourable debt terms? Could also be that russel 2000 is following SP500 but with higher volatility, making it appear similar to nasdaq 100?

Russell 2000 from 2004 to 07 = a 60% gain.

Maybe its stocked full of high PE stocks this time.