Hmmm..Europe started a rot last night..Wall St carried it on and broke some technical support as well..It ended a huge rally up some~13% off what looked like a bullish double bottom.
..but...
the rally ended with a lower high...so the 4 month down trend continues on Wall St ....we have Friday still to go, so what will the European/Americian investors do with these broken technicals?..
NZX is treating today (Friday) trading behaviour as a "she'll be right mate...no worrries" cum Monday..If I was short term trading NZX stuff, I don't know if I would want to stay "in" over this weekend
I wrote this midday friday 13th November....
Strange as it may seem, down trending markets and markets in a bear cycle always seem to get clobbered by a series of bad news events
EDIT:.. Wall St fell over -1% Friday. It was closed for the day when the Paris Terrorist attacks commenced..(4.20pm NYT)
Yes KW...and..please excuse my posting below as it's my latent furturist behaviour popping out...
This could be boon for online behavior......and the safety threat could help push through initiative disruptive technology
1..shopping (already here)
2..Restaurant on line...Pay online to cook your exquisite dinner (as per menu) via your home 3D printer..
3..Put on your VR headset and go touring...The VR program networks with hundreds of webcams or other interactive streaming devices within your visual perimeter gives you nanosecond interactive live updates...imagine being virtually present watching those dangerous events unfold around you..and knowing you are completely safe..Why watch CNN/BBC on the basic TV or Facebook/Twitter on your phone.eh?
OK thats enough of that from me....blame it on "nothing to do due to the rained out day"
Yes KW...and..please excuse my posting below as it's my latent furturist behaviour popping out...
This could be boon for online behavior......and the safety threat could help push through initiative disruptive technology
1..shopping (already here)
2..Restaurant on line...Pay online to cook your exquisite dinner (as per menu) via your home 3D printer..
3..Put on your VR headset and go touring...The VR program networks with hundreds of webcams or other interactive streaming devices within your visual perimeter gives you nanosecond interactive live updates...imagine being virtually present watching those dangerous events unfold around you..and knowing you are completely safe..Why watch CNN/BBC on the basic TV or Facebook/Twitter on your phone.eh?
OK thats enough of that from me....blame it on "nothing to do due to the rained out day"
Apparently the 3d printer can print you up some prozac in the future if things are going particularly bad as well..---Rain here as well
What are peoples thoughts about when the farming (milk) sector might bounce back?
Hard to pick and if we could , we would all be super rich .
Just like to say generally markets overshoot to levels you would never envisage .They stay depressed and over bought ( irrational) longer than we can stay solvent .
I always remember the USA and the Gulf war" it will be all over in a year and we will be out of there " .... great Tui ad.Or maybe a building project this will be finished in 6 months ....
Commodities and economic downturns are much the same.
Currently many commodities are depressed including iron ore ...crushing the Aussie economy , plenty of people picking a turnaround in this and oil but it doesn't appear to be happening anytime soon .
Wish I could help you more , but hopefully these general thoughts on markets can help you shape your thoughts on your situation.
Thanks stoploss. I'm a bit of a novice at this kind of investment, so its great to be able to ask these dumb questions.
Speaking of dumb questions... Why are Aussies commodity prices so low?
Ok so it's not Aussie commodity prices , commodity prices are generally denominated in USD . So currently the Gold price in Aud has not had such a severe downturn for Australian producers as the Aussie currency vs the Usd has depreciated considerably to compensate for the weak economy , lower interest rates etc ...( getting off point a little here )
To answer your question WHY , in what some are calling the greatest commodity boom since the great gold rush ...Australia , Brazil , and China due in a large part to massive Chinese demand
started producing ever increasing amounts of iron ore , opening more mines in remote inhospitable regions/conditions .( Think 45 degree desert) Once the demand from China fell it has meant
an oversupply of the commodity and prices plunged .
Same goes for milk ...massive Chinese demand , farmers produce more and more as Fonterra happy to take it ...but they have to build more expensive processing plants .....demand drys up from China the price plummets . This is for the milk powder,value added high end products are ok - think A2 infant powder . Same goes for lumber prices ...it breaks my heart to see so many logs sitting at the Port, why not turn it into an IKEA product add some value , create some jobs .
You will be able to find a heap of stories on the current collapse in the oil price . Basically Saudi have the taps open full bore, Iraq and Iran back online, and America producing massive amounts of shale oil and gas to stem their massive imports.
This is just basic supply and demand . There are a heap of other reasons and other factors at play . Hard to explain fully and there is always another side of the argument , ways to pick holes in the reasoning etc ... so this is not a definitive , just my opinion . Good luck out there.
Originally Posted by Hoop
Hmmm..Europe started a rot last night..Wall St carried it on and broke some technical support as well..It ended a huge rally up some~13% off what looked like a bullish double bottom.....we have Friday still to go, so what will the European/Americian investors do with these broken technicals?..
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