Black Monday

[Dassets]

I ran some numbers yesterday off some creditable data(I won't disclose the source here in case they withdraw it . I was surprised at the level of the data. I used a last price of $40549 per Btc for ease, it is just how the buckets of data are defined. There are 7.4m BTC that owe the holders more than $40549 with cumulative losses of USD$78.3 billion. That is a big % of BTC that are in the red. Now the last sale price is lower than that so the numbers are even worse. Anyone can private message me, I can show you how to derive these numbers. There's a lot more too.

[bull....]

who's ready for another volatile week lol
big fed meeting this week

[bull....]

nz 10 yr hits record high today .... no good for the NZX

[stoploss]

nz 10 yr hits record high today .... no good for the NZX

Can you qualify that a bit better ?

[Ferg]

I believe he was referring to this:
https://tradingeconomics.com/new-zea...ent-bond-yield
and the inverse relationship between government bond rates and the NZX50.

[bull....]

Can you qualify that a bit better ?

ferg answered it and just to add a bit more the higher the bond goes in theory the valuation of all those bond proxy stocks on the nzx get re-rated down. ( probably happen in earnest after div's are paid i reckon.

by the way US 10 yr hit a new high in this march up tonight which can mean rates in NZ follow too. ( most of the time )

[bull....]

other big news overnight affecting markets

US 10 yr up strongly
shenzen in china lockdown .. this is quite a big announcement. see the oil price getting hammered maybe some it due to the china news. ( bet the petrol price in nz doesnt drop lol )

[stoploss]

ferg answered it and just to add a bit more the higher the bond goes in theory the valuation of all those bond proxy stocks on the nzx get re-rated down. ( probably happen in earnest after div's are paid i reckon.

by the way US 10 yr hit a new high in this march up tonight which can mean rates in NZ follow too. ( most of the time )

Thanks I’m well aware of that .
I was more alluding to the “ record high” comment.
Have a look back to 1994/95 and check out what the NZ 10 year yield did .

[GOAT]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

[winner69]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

In America and Probably applies to NZ -

Skyrocketing Oil Prices + Flattening Yield Curve + Fed Policy Mistake = Recession


And

There have been 12 recessions since 1946. 8 have followed major oil price shocks, while a further three have occurred immediately following more modest, but still notable, oil price run-ups… That leaves just one out of twelve recessions that didn’t have any oil fingerprints left at the crime scene. Correlation ≠ Causation? Perhaps, but 11 out of 12 is one hell of a coincidence."

And

NZ yield curve , esp 10 yr v 2yr, getting flatter by the week