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15-03-2022, 05:39 PM
#10481
 Originally Posted by GOAT
I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?
I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?
Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opi...idence-plunges
Lowest consumer confidence since this survey began nearly 20 years ago including at any time during the GFC ! so that's a huge heads-up the consumers will be pulling their heads in on discretionary spending.
Yes that's exactly what tends to happen and luxury good manufacturers in Europe have been really beaten up as a result.
I have been 70%+ in cash all year and sleeping pretty well at night. At this point its all about capital preservation in these strange and highly volatile times.
Last edited by Beagle; 15-03-2022 at 05:41 PM.
Ecclesiastes 11:2: “Divide your portion to seven, or even to eight, for you do not know what misfortune may occur on the earth.”
Ben Graham - In the short run the market is a voting machine but in the long run the market is a weighing machine
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15-03-2022, 06:27 PM
#10482
Jeez ….they even putting hard landing in the headlines …..as the RBNZ gets drawn into a ‘squeeze it to death’ battle with inflation
https://www.interest.co.nz/business/...exorably-drawn
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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15-03-2022, 06:35 PM
#10483
Oil prices dropping as India, China & Pakistan move to buy discounted Russian oil.
So they buy oil off Russia at a cheaper price (15% to 20% discount) and sell the oil they have contracted to buy from other countries into the markets for a nice profit.
Economics 101 in action.
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15-03-2022, 06:38 PM
#10484
Originally Posted by Balance
Oil prices dropping as India, China & Pakistan move to buy discounted Russian oil.
So they buy oil off Russia at a cheaper price (15% to 20% discount) and sell the oil they have contracted to buy from other countries into the markets for a nice profit.
Economics 101 in action.
One advantage of not being too ‘outspoken’ and condemning Russia eh
“ At the top of every bubble, everyone is convinced it's not yet a bubble.”
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15-03-2022, 06:42 PM
#10485
Originally Posted by winner69
One advantage of not being too ‘outspoken’ and condemning Russia eh
The West is still buying Russian gas and oil so is in no position to criticise the three countries.
Interesting too that India & China are going to be using LCS (local currency system) to buy the oil - bilateral trade using rouble/rupee & renminbi/rouble.
The beginning of the end of the US$ as the global trade currency?
Go short US$!
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15-03-2022, 06:50 PM
#10486
Originally Posted by Balance
The West is still buying Russian gas and oil so is in no position to criticise the three countries.
Interesting too that India & China are going to be using LCS (local currency system) to buy the oil - bilateral trade using rouble/rupee & renminbi/rouble.
The beginning of the end of the US$ as the global trade currency?
Go short US$!
China has just signed a $10 billion contract with Saudi Arabia to build refineries in China that will be supplied with Russian oil.
"With a good perspective on history, we can have a better understanding of the past and present, and thus a clear vision of the future." — Carlos Slim Helu
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15-03-2022, 06:57 PM
#10487
Originally Posted by JBmurc
China has just signed a $10 billion contract with Saudi Arabia to build refineries in China that will be supplied with Russian oil.
Russian cost of oil production is estimated at between US$30 to US$40 so plenty of scope for oil price to fall back towards US$60 in the months ahead?
China will be driving a hard bargain knowing how desperate Russia is.
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15-03-2022, 07:31 PM
#10488
Originally Posted by winner69
One advantage of not being too ‘outspoken’ and condemning Russia eh
Sure..as Putin's Russia lay waste to towns, starve residents, shoot fleeing families and target hospitals, schools and residential buildings, they look away. I wonder if they will make sure their history books remove condemnation of British imperialism.
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15-03-2022, 07:36 PM
#10489
Originally Posted by Balance
Russian cost of oil production is estimated at between US$30 to US$40 so plenty of scope for oil price to fall back towards US$60 in the months ahead?
China will be driving a hard bargain knowing how desperate Russia is.
China may be the winner out of Western sanctions. The dictatorships may get cheap oil. The environment may get a load more pollution?
Last edited by Bjauck; 15-03-2022 at 07:37 PM.
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15-03-2022, 07:50 PM
#10490
Originally Posted by Bjauck
China may be the winner out of Western sanctions. The dictatorships may get cheap oil. The environment may get a load more pollution?
If the West is deadly serious about really punishing Russia with sanctions, cut off all purchases of all oil, gas and minerals/metals like palladium & platinum from Russia.
Until then, the West is hampered in imposing its will on the likes of India & China to not buy from Russia.
The three countries are simply substituting oil from other countries with cheaper Russian oil - why would there be more pollution?
Last edited by Balance; 15-03-2022 at 07:59 PM.
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