Black Monday

[Muse]

If the West is deadly serious about really punishing Russia with sanctions, cut off all purchases of all oil, gas and minerals/metals like palladium & platinum from Russia.

Until then, the West is hampered in imposing its will on the likes of India & China to not buy from Russia.

The three countries are simply substituting oil from other countries with cheaper Russian oil - why would there be more pollution?

a handful of countries banning oil imports from Russia doesn't do much in the medium or long term - doesn't have anywhere the same impact as formal sanctions. It's just a reshuffle of buyers and sellers of oil. Russia finds other outlets, like in india and china, the oil they were previously buying gets displaced, sloshing around back into america and britain. its virtue signaling, really. lets not forget oil was already going up before this happened

[bull....]

Oil drops again, now more than 27% below recent high

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/15/oil-...cent-high.html


ah but the petrol price at the pump never goes down as quick as they pump it up

[BlackPeter]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

Nobody can predict how bad this inflation will get. However - if it does get bad, then you will be afterwards glad about any assets you did hold. I am talking about holding shares of good companies, real estate, gold and other (easy saleable) valuables, and of course any tools you need to do a productive job.

100% cash sounds risky in this context - better don't miss the bottom ...

In the old times you could utilize the (paper based) cash after inflationary periods still as wall paper or on the loo (to pick your bottom ). You could use it as well as collectable. Not sure, though what good electronic cash might be after a decent inflation.

[winner69]

when the talk was all about a big recession coming post GFC an extremely worried workmate asked waht happens during a recessions ...... I asked him how he managed in the late 1990s and he said just fine and then I told him we had a recession then ...... oh shucks a recession and I didn't even notice.and went away happy with life again

[Entrep]

I keep hearing about recession or possibly stagflation.. what are the odds of this actually happening? Are there any technical indicators that one can draw conclusions from?

I'm too young to know what happens during high inflation. As a result of inflation, can we expect to see consumers stop spending on luxuries due to higher pricing on necessities?

Additionally, how should one be positioned in volatile times? Personally, right now I'm not comfortable with holding low amounts of cash like 20%, and also at the same time uneasy about going 100% cash and waiting for drop in asset prices.

In my experience timing the market is very hard (a lesson that's taken me maybe 15 years and many $$$ to learn). Time in the market is what matters.

[BlackPeter]

Nobody can predict how bad this inflation will get. However - if it does get bad, then you will be afterwards glad about any assets you did hold. I am talking about holding shares of good companies, real estate, gold and other (easy saleable) valuables, and of course any tools you need to do a productive job.

100% cash sounds risky in this context - better don't miss the bottom ...

In the old times you could utilize the (paper based) cash after inflationary periods still as wall paper or on the loo (to pick your bottom ). You could use it as well as collectable. Not sure, though what good electronic cash might be after a decent inflation.

Just to give you an idea about the worth of cash during and after an hyper inflation: these are 20 million Deutsch Mark, which my grandmother gave me.

At the day of issue (1. September 1923) you could probably buy a loaf of bread with the banknote. A week later you needed already several of them to pay for your breakfast.

Even today its not much worth (maybe a couple of dollars) ... they just printed too many of them at the time.

20220316_094815 - Copy.jpg

Note: cash is not always king ...

[Rawz]

Just to give you an idea about the worth of cash during and after an hyper inflation: these are 20 million Deutsch Mark, which my grandmother gave me.

At the day of issue (1. September 1923) you could probably buy a loaf of bread with the banknote. A week later you needed already several of them to pay for your breakfast.

Even today its not much worth (maybe a couple of dollars) ... they just printed too many of them at the time.

20220316_094815 - Copy.jpg

Note: cash is not always king ...

Thats pretty cool BP!

[Biscuit]

In my experience timing the market is very hard (a lesson that's taken me maybe 15 years and many $$$ to learn). Time in the market is what matters.

I agree with that to a large extent. Always have enough cash so you are never forced to sell and a bit more to play with. Then don't sweat the ups and downs.

[percy]

I agree with that to a large extent. Always have enough cash so you are never forced to sell and a bit more to play with. Then don't sweat the ups and downs.

Sage advice.

[Beagle]

when the talk was all about a big recession coming post GFC an extremely worried workmate asked waht happens during a recessions ...... I asked him how he managed in the late 1990s and he said just fine and then I told him we had a recession then ...... oh shucks a recession and I didn't even notice.and went away happy with life again

Lowest consumer confidence since records began in this survey including at any time during the GFC file:///C:/Users/user/Downloads/ANZ-ConsumerConfidence-20220304%20(1).pdf
A lead indicator that people will be pulling their heads in on discretionary spending in a big way.

Just as well we're all immune for this because we all have plenty