Black Monday

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Its simple in their minds ...Inflation is lesser evil then Recession ...So it will be slow up only and smaller top only then what markets have already priced in...

Bottom is in ...slow grind up ahead ....provided we actually dont end up in recession ...IMO FED and other central banks will try their best to avoid that by tolerating inflation little more then required

I've lost count of how many times you've called a bottom in the last couple of months.

In saying that, I agree a short term bounce to set a weekly lower high is most likely from here as we now have enough information to conclude that. Change the weekly trend and then we can start talking about longer term bottoms being in, but there is significant work required by the bulls to achieve this.

[alokdhir]

I've lost count of how many times you've called a bottom in the last couple of months.

In saying that, I agree a short term bounce to set a weekly lower high is most likely from here as we now have enough information to conclude that. Change the weekly trend and then we can start talking about longer term bottoms being in, but there is significant work required by the bulls to achieve this.

Yes if it doesn't go below last bottom of 11700 then it can be called many times mate ...

Also I was just agreeing with Josh's view that bottom is in ...maybe u didn't read his post just above W69

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Yes if it doesn't go below last bottom of 11700 then it can be called many times mate ...

Also I was just agreeing with Josh's view that bottom is in ...maybe u didn't read his post just above W69

You cant call the bottom of a monthly trend with a daily trend change. Even if we get a bounce on the monthly we will now just be looking for a monthly lower high now (which I will be very aggressively shorting).

[Hoop]

But this supposed to be dreadful news could hardly dent NZD ...it need to fall to balance the economy towards more exports then just plain consumption as we all survived Covid ...Next few months are crucial from many angles ...But I reckon NZD will help rebalance the economy ...it always picks up the slack ...60 cents on cards

The NZ economy equation is heavily weighted on Imports/Exports variables...that means NZ's currency is affected by NZ trading partners currencies..the two biggest being China and Australia. Generally speaking (compared with all other Countries in the world) the strength of a Country's economic health = the strength of their currency..Both Australia and China have strong currencies and so has NZ.....I good place to be ..eh alokdhir.

Another major variable that affects a currency is interest rates difference (change) between other major trading Countries. With Monetary policy I personally can't see a lowering of the NZ$ / lowering short term interest rates differerntial within this current high inflation environment..

About 170 Countries trade their currencies each day...NZ may be a small Country but it's Currency NZ$ is the 10th most traded currency in the world (~ $70 Billion/day). The currency market is the biggest market in the world trading at around $US 6.6 Trillion/day (2019 data).
As we can imagine, manipulating the Forex every day to lower the NZ$ would become a very expensive exercise.

They say the Team of 5 million are starting to pull their heads in now and with expectation the future spending data will be down ...The currency market left alone to function usually auto-corrects..

[Tomtom]

Its simple in their minds ...Inflation is lesser evil then Recession ...So it will be slow up only and smaller top only then what markets have already priced in...

Bottom is in ...slow grind up ahead ....provided we actually dont end up in recession ...IMO FED and other central banks will try their best to avoid that by tolerating inflation little more then required

Won't inflation, if it exceeds wage growth, eventually cause a recession by reducing real (inflation adjusted) spending?

To my way of thinking it's akin driving around in reverse because you are running out of petrol.

[winner69]

Yes Hoop …..we should look to a higher NZD and be proud of it

A low NZD is a sign of failure

[winner69]

GDP year to December 2021 +5.6% on pcp

That's pretty impressive

[BlackPeter]

GDP year to December 2021 +5.6% on pcp

That's pretty impressive

Is this with or without inflation?

[winner69]

Is this with or without inflation?

in real terms .... no inflation

[bull....]

and mostly all done on borrowed and printed money lol