Black Monday

[BlackPeter]

Ever cared to look at what happened in the 70's? Those real returns on stocks were awfully negative.

Depends on which stocks you did hold at that time. Solid companies producing useful products had a good return, even then (well, on global markets, didn't watch NZ at that time)

Quite different to the after inflation and after tax returns of bonds.

As well - it might help to broaden your perspective if you study more than one somewhat inflationary period. Who is saying that this will develop like the 70íes?

Just looking at the current geopolitical situation it might be more useful to study what happened to bonds vs stocks during in the 1920'íes ...

Obviously - anybody who managed to pick the peak in 1929, went (short before) that day into cash and went some months later back into stocks, made big money. But what for the majority of people without a working crystal ball?

Anybody who kept their money throughout the 1920'íes in bonds was a big looser ...

[JohnnyTheHorse]

Depends on which stocks you did hold at that time. Solid companies producing useful products had a good return, even then (well, on global markets, didn't watch NZ at that time)

Quite different to the after inflation and after tax returns of bonds.

As well - it might help to broaden your perspective if you study more than one somewhat inflationary period. Who is saying that this will develop like the 70íes?

Just looking at the current geopolitical situation it might be more useful to study what happened to bonds vs stocks during in the 1920'íes ...

Obviously - anybody who managed to pick the peak in 1929, went (short before) that day into cash and went some months later back into stocks, made big money. But what for the majority of people without a working crystal ball?

Anybody who kept their money throughout the 1920'íes in bonds was a big looser ...

1915-1921 was highly inflationary, in which period real stock returns were strongly negative. The 20's had low inflation.

Inflation not good for stocks... or bonds.

[bull....]

I guess time will tell whether it is stock investors or bond investors who are in lala land. Persistent Inflation will kill the value of bonds (it always did in the past), while stocks will survive even hyperinfaltion (they always did in the past) ...

Ah yes, but don't forget this time will be different - the bull is a bear ... though - he always was ;

more bad news out today

Inflation has so much strength and persistence that the RBNZ will likely need to keep raising interest rates despite softening house prices, ANZ economists say

https://www.interest.co.nz/property/...d-keep-raising

wow bp better ditch those oca's lol with house prices falling retiree's wont be able to afford the units or apartments. might have to settle for fbu flatpacks

[Bobdn]

Yeah, high inflation is generally bad for stocks (e.g.s&p 500) and bonds. Worse for bonds, however. The only things that are really working well for me are my oil ETFs (OIH, XLE, and IXC) and Australian resources (mostly held by Smartshares ASR). In the 1970s of course only commodities, gold, and oil did really well. Real estate too I think.

I do hold paper gold via Perth Mint's PMGOLD fund and have been selling a little and reinvesting in Kernel; Simplicity and Superlife. Just a little mind, we might have a long way to go. Paper Gold is my cash allocation. I have next to zero cash. So far, gold is doing everything I've hoped it would do.

The rest of my portfolio, which is the whole world market, is tanking. The above just represents a tilt.

[Joshuatree]

Nearly all my equities are in NZ and aus except for a Canadian Goldie.My energy stocks,all established producers are booming,recent buy BHP (selling its energy portfolio to Woodside which I hold) going up and my gold producers doing great as well,finally . A great hedge and keeping the value of my portfolio stable.

[bull....]

US bonds rising strongly again today , i have the top of the range around 1.35 ...3-3.1 which has been the range pretty much since 2011. risk rising for stocks

lets not forget the looming food crisis coming

Fertilizer prices are at record highs. Here’s what that means for the global economy

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/fert...hat-means.html

[JohnnyTheHorse]

US bonds rising strongly again today , i have the top of the range around 1.35 ...3-3.1 which has been the range pretty much since 2011. risk rising for stocks

lets not forget the looming food crisis coming

Fertilizer prices are at record highs. Here’s what that means for the global economy


https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/22/fert...hat-means.html

My shorts on bonds are flying .

Bigger picture, this weekly bounce on SPY is large enough that we should now hold the lows in the short term. I mentioned previously that sentiment was way too bearish and hence we were due for a bounce to unwind overconfident bears. I still see the medium term outlook is that we set a monthly lower high and roll over (NZX last year is an example of what could happen, although I would think it'll be a bit faster as the NZX had the backdrop of a rising US market).

[Jerry]

How reliable do you feel paper gold is? One hears that the amount of gold backing the paper can be way less than 100%. My converse problem is I don't want little bits of metal to look after myself.

[BlackPeter]

How reliable do you feel paper gold is? One hears that the amount of gold backing the paper can be way less than 100%. My converse problem is I don't want little bits of metal to look after myself.

If I want to invest in gold I normally go for gold mining shares (of producing and well established mines) ... they go up and down with the gold price and are not more difficult to look after than other stocks.

Discl: holding OGC ...

[Bobdn]

Jesus, S&P500 just 3 per cent from all time highs now.