Black Monday

[Aaron]

double posted sorry.

[Aaron]

also keep your eye on the mens underwear index for recession signals

I assume this is how brown your undies are and how many times a day you need to wring them out when looking at a falling sharemarket.

[winner69]

Anyone's guess what the RB WILL do this week

The case that they should raise the OCR this time by 75 or even 100 bps is pretty strong. The RB has been behind the game from the start, (core) inflation is high & the real OCR is much lower now than pre-Covid.

But I reckon our friend Adrian will be wimpish and go for 25 bps

[Rawz]

Anyone's guess what the RB WILL do this week

The case that they should raise the OCR this time by 75 or even 100 bps is pretty strong. The RB has been behind the game from the start, (core) inflation is high & the real OCR is much lower now than pre-Covid.

But I reckon our friend Adrian will be wimpish and go for 25 bps

100bp would be an over-reaction and send us straight towards a hard landing

Lots of 25bp will give us a soft landing.

[Muse]

100bp would be an over-reaction and send us straight towards a hard landing

Lots of 25bp will give us a soft landing.

I'm all for two 50bps rises, this month and next, followed by 25bps rises thereafter. The RBNZ needs to show credibility that it will rein in inflation, rather than let it get entrenched and self fulfilling, requiring even greater rises later which will increase the odds & severity of a recession

If they go 25bps this week, they may still have to do two 50bps rate rises back to back, as inflation data is released. It's possible the next two inflation releases will be between 7 to 7.5%. We gotta clock this on the head now

[Rawz]

I'm all for two 50bps rises, this month and next, followed by 25bps rises thereafter. The RBNZ needs to show credibility that it will rein in inflation, rather than let it get entrenched and self fulfilling, requiring even greater rises later which will increase the odds & severity of a recession

If they go 25bps this week, they may still have to do two 50bps rate rises back to back, as inflation data is released. It's possible the next two inflation releases will be between 7 to 7.5%. We gotta clock this on the head now

Hmm a fine balancing act required.

I think the central banks around the world are going to talk much tougher than they act

[Muse]

Hmm a fine balancing act required.

I think the central banks around the world are going to talk much tougher than they act

I'm thankful we aren't as behind the curve as the americans !
the RBA a bunch of wet blankets too

I'm really enjoying podcasts by Larry Summers who I reckon has been spot on about inflation.

Got to keep entertained and occupied when the moose family is locked down & suffering from covid. Thankfully our symptoms are manageable, but being locked down for at least a week with hacking children isn't very pleasant.

[Rawz]

I'm thankful we aren't as behind the curve as the americans !
the RBA a bunch of wet blankets too

I'm really enjoying podcasts by Larry Summers who I reckon has been spot on about inflation.

Got to keep entertained and occupied when the moose family is locked down & suffering from covid. Thankfully our symptoms are manageable, but being locked down for at least a week with hacking children isn't very pleasant.

Guttered! Lucky it is manageable. Lockdowns with children is hard enough lol let alone them being sick.

Talking about podcasts, what is everyone's favorites. I listen to:

Macro Voices (best)
We Study Billionaires (very close second best)
The Acquires Podcast (bit more relaxed)
Motley Fool Money (constantly reinforces simple investment themes)
Stephanomics (good but short)
Millennial Investing (hit and miss)

any good ones i am missing? I listen via spotify

[Muse]

Guttered! Lucky it is manageable. Lockdowns with children is hard enough lol let alone them being sick.

Talking about podcasts, what is everyone's favorites. I listen to:

Macro Voices (best)
We Study Billionaires (very close second best)
The Acquires Podcast (bit more relaxed)
Motley Fool Money (constantly reinforces simple investment themes)
Stephanomics (good but short)
Millennial Investing (hit and miss)

any good ones i am missing? I listen via spotify

nice one i'll check them out

[winner69]

Hmm a fine balancing act required.

I think the central banks around the world are going to talk much tougher than they act

some say no increase in OCR because the outlook is not good and most people are kind of broke and hungry and many sleeping rough.

It’s sad how this country has got itself into such a state.