Black Monday

[Major von Tempsky]

If China is in a mess with record amazing debt levels how come they have only lowered their GDP growth estimate from 7.5% (plus) to 7.0% (plus) ?

If China is doing so well (plus 7.0% GDP growth) how come their imports have fallen and also their electricity production? (shades of Argentine's inflation estimates?)

If China is doing so badly how come their tourists are pouring into NZ at ridiculously high levels like there is no tomorrow?

If Chinese can drive on the left in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore and Indonesia and Chinese tourists can drive on the left in Japan, why can't they drive on the left in New Zealand?

[Hectorplains]

[QUOTE=

If Chinese can drive on the left in Hong Kong, Malaysia and Singapore and Indonesia and Chinese tourists can drive on the left in Japan, why can't they drive on the left in New Zealand?[/QUOTE]

...they do.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/motoring/news...oreign-drivers

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crim...haccused-named

[Lewylewylewy]

If the NZX does go into turmoil, what happens to shares of companies whole are successful during the period, especially those trading at PEs around the 10 mark? Do they tend to go down and become bargains or do they hold up their value as they're still going strong?

I'm thinking about my holdings in companies like Scl and THL who I expect to deliver some good news in February.

Obviously shares trading at higher, speculative ratios go down amid such turmoil even if they're doing OK, because their prices are based on influence from people doing speculative trading...

[percy]

If the NZX does go into turmoil, what happens to shares of companies whole are successful during the period, especially those trading at PEs around the 10 mark? Do they tend to go down and become bargains or do they hold up their value as they're still going strong?

I'm thinking about my holdings in companies like Scl and THL who I expect to deliver some good news in February.

Obviously shares trading at higher, speculative ratios go down amid such turmoil even if they're doing OK, because their prices are based on influence from people doing speculative trading...

In GFC all stocks fell,and those who increased their dividends were the first to recover.
Companies carrying large debt [ie NPX] had to recapatilise,while others had cash issues to strengthen their balance sheets..
Today, NZ companies for the most part have very strong balance sheets,well managed, and are in very good shape,as is the country.
SCL and THL are going from strength to strength.
Yet volatility is something we have to learn to live with.

[Baa_Baa]

Hard to ignore this. NZ is not immune as the past week will attest on the blue chips.

Will it stop? Heck who knows, just don't ignore it.

Attachment 7793

[BlackCross]

The difference between short and long-dated Treasury yields is narrowing, a classic harbinger of an economic downturn....

http://video.ft.com/4689884892001/US-Treasury-yield-curve-flashing-yellow/markets

Plus 'transports' are showing signs of stress... that's 2 warning signs and enough for me to reduce my holdings.

On a positive note I'm usually on the wrong side of any trade..lol.

[Lewylewylewy]

I guess an interesting thing about these particular troubles is that the shares that are dropping are not actually struggling. I guess the question is, will the events upcoming cause NZ companies to underperform.

[KiwiGekko]

I guess an interesting thing about these particular troubles is that the shares that are dropping are not actually struggling. I guess the question is, will the events upcoming cause NZ companies to underperform.

I am unsure which shares you are referring to, but markets are forward looking, so they're not struggling based on the data you have at hand right now that is in the rear view mirror. Depending on what scenario you think is likely these companies valuations could look completely different - that is what you're seeing priced in right now, combined with a bit of de-risking.

As for the second part of your question - will events (which events?) cause NZ companies to underperform? My observation is this: Globally we currently have a global oversupply of a number of commodities combined with a bit of a bit of a slow down in consumption, there are a number of headwinds coming into 2016 and NZ is not except from this, think Dairy. But so far we have had a wealth effect which I believe has been contributed to by Auckland's property market + tourism has been going from strength to strength & our other exporters are being helped by the exchange rate. Will that continue? Who knows, if picking markets was easy we'd all be sipping cocktails in the Bahamas, not posting here on a Sunday evening.

These are just my thoughts, DYOR etc etc.

KG.

[bull....]

watching 16000 dow , 1870 es tonight

[Lewylewylewy]

Today's the last day of drops, I'd say (for the short to medium term). All the announcements come out this week telling us how wonderful everything is.