Black Monday

[Azz]

Gonna be an interesting week !

[Balance]

Bear trap or start of a resurgence?

Place your bets and be prepared to be excited!

[Azz]

Bear trap or start of a resurgence?

Place your bets and be prepared to be excited!

Lol !

[Azz]

I'm as excited as a turkey before Christmas! Wait a sec, I might have that wrong...?!

[bull....]

"Oversold", absolutely. But "bear bounce" might instead turn into proper rally. The markets are generally forward looking - and what if everything that's set to happen is already priced in?

analyst's in the USA are still expecting growth next yr in there forecasts so the E is not factored in at all to current market pricing i reckon. So a earnings recession is still to play out.
guess thats why bear markets last on average 1 - 2 yrs

[Bobdn]

Crushing 🐻🐨 markets are much less stressful than raging bull markets. When you are firmly in the grip of a bear, there's nothing else to do but take your lumps. Hopefully one has a little bit of cash to get through the next year and there's no need to cash in any funds. Dividends are getting reinvested in a down market.

In a raging bull, there's always that nagging doubt that you're staying at the party too long.

Party is over!

[Tomtom]

Commodities stabilised somewhat after March which will drag CPI back in many developed economies. I think the bet is that once Reserve Banks see inflation start to come down they'll just hold rates steady.

My view is still that long run rates will need to be higher. There have been three great forces that have played out in the employment market within my lifetime:
1. Women entering the workforce. That has actually likely finished, women are now substantially are employed at similar rates to men.
2. Post-war generation was substantially larger than subsequent generations, that gave economies a huge number of workers. However that generation are in their late 50's or older now, that means more people will retire than enter workforces.
3. The industrialisation of China. China had always been an advanced society prior to the Opium Wars, that allowed them to rapidly industrialise and lift their burgeoning workforce out of poverty. However now that boom is over because their workforce is also declining (rapidly!), China has one of the most acute demographic problems of any country. There doesn't appear to be another China to me, development in most countries is far slower.

All that means is that labour is going to be very scarce which will drive up wages. Higher wages means more Inflationary pressure that needs to be suppressed.

[ynot]

Commodities stabilised somewhat after March which will drag CPI back in many developed economies. I think the bet is that once Reserve Banks see inflation start to come down they'll just hold rates steady.

My view is still that long run rates will need to be higher. There have been three great forces that have played out in the employment market within my lifetime:
1. Women entering the workforce. That has actually likely finished, women are now substantially are employed at similar rates to men.
2. Post-war generation was substantially larger than subsequent generations, that gave economies a huge number of workers. However that generation are in their late 50's or older now, that means more people will retire than enter workforces.
3. The industrialisation of China. China had always been an advanced society prior to the Opium Wars, that allowed them to rapidly industrialise and lift their burgeoning workforce out of poverty. However now that boom is over because their workforce is also declining (rapidly!), China has one of the most acute demographic problems of any country. There doesn't appear to be another China to me, development in most countries is far slower.

All that means is that labour is going to be very scarce which will drive up wages. Higher wages means more Inflationary pressure that needs to be suppressed.

Interesting chart. I notice some other nations are showing an increase on the chart, India ?
Japan not looking good in that dept.

[davflaws]

All that means is that labour is going to be very scarce which will drive up wages. Higher wages means more Inflationary pressure that needs to be suppressed.

Hard to argue with, but I did read that a labour shortage hastens the widespread adoption of the technological advances available (and there are currently plenty of robotic technologies in that category) and gives huge impetus to wealth creation.

[Tomtom]

Interesting chart. I notice some other nations are showing an increase on the chart, India ?
Japan not looking good in that dept.

Yeah, those charts only cover the OECD. Population growth in the undeveloped world is far higher but non look to be on the rapid industrialisation path China has been (except perhaps for Rwanda but the population is only 13m.) China was just really unusual, one suspects because it was an advanced society.