Wow I don't understand what makes up the figure but I am pretty sure deficits are not good. What happened up to Jan 2021 and more importantly what has been happening since then. The line is pretty much straight down. Growing deficits.
Are agricultural export prices rising at a slower rate than imports. No one to pick the fruit or milk the cows? Maybe it's the gib board coming in, or coal from where ever now that we are carbon zero? Locked down NZers buying crap online from China? More tourists going overseas than coming in?
Should we as a nation be concerned?
I wonder if imports were hindered by lockdowns here and abroad while our main exports kept ticking over with their own supply lines and there is some sort of catch-up at play there?
a week of consolidation ending for stocks in the bear
10yr hammered again on economic recession fears
earnings will be more telling next quarter , just like NZ will be feb/mar
BofA survey shows private client funds under management have highest allocation to equity for decades
The FOMO dichotomy continues they say
2020-2021 - Fear of missing out on upside.
2022 - Fear of missing out on the bottom if the Fed pivots.
"I scared of a bear market, but I ain't sellin'" said one manager
Our market NZX is behaving much better though no panic selling ...if we are lucky and good chance of that imo then 10395 will be bottom of this cycle unless real recession is very deep and prolonged ...thats long time away for markets to fear ...at present they are breathing much easier as Inflation fears melting slowly
Looking at US 10 year yields now below 2.80 is reassuring to stock valuations ...Oil closing below crucial 95 level too helps
Recession is easier on stocks as that means rates down but inflation is the feared scene
If one thinks Inflation battle is going to be won in 3-6 months ahead then this is the time to get in or at every dip
Buy the dip will return then sell the rally soon ...surely dependent on Inflation getting under control which seems at the moment
I have 80% certainty of 10395 low holding and we ending the year much higher then now ....maybe 12000 + ....hopefully
If it all pans out as predicted (by those who like to tell us they know what they are doing) markets take a dip following the fed this week, V shaped recovery over the next 6 months as inflation comes off peak. Merry Christmas everyone.
I think it's going to take foot and mouth for me to get HGH at that $1.53 mentioned.
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Originally Posted by Aaron
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