Black Monday

[bull....]

Whats in your opinion reason for this second closing over that range ? News was bad ...GDP contracted instead of small rise !!

10 year dropped big time ...maybe helping improve higher p/e stocks valuations ....Oil continues to show signs of breakdown below crucial 95

Whats ahead ? New lows or higher range trading or new highs ?

maybe people think bad news mean less rate hiking. but my opinion as fed chair say yest we will hike no matter what as inflation is no 1 concern.
10 yr drop based on recession fears . should flow to nz today too. make some high div stocks look appealing afgain esp utilities. just look at DJU nearly at highs again as people go for security of div with utilities.
from a technical chart view its just follow thru from breakout and mth end stuff i reckon. im watching 4200 area now sp500

[mike2020]

What I can't understand is the nzx seems unaffected by the big up days in the US but seems to mirror the down days like its gospel. The asx isn't all that different. I've only watched it for a couple of years so no great experience.

[alokdhir]

maybe people think bad news mean less rate hiking. but my opinion as fed chair say yest we will hike no matter what as inflation is no 1 concern.
10 yr drop based on recession fears . should flow to nz today too. make some high div stocks look appealing afgain esp utilities. just look at DJU nearly at highs again as people go for security of div with utilities.
from a technical chart view its just follow thru from breakout and mth end stuff i reckon. im watching 4200 area now sp500

FED made it very clear that INFLATION control is most important so no need worry about recession ...that was liked by market

Now market is liking that first step in controlling inflation ie slowdown is actually happening ...so their initial fear of super high rates for long to control it are showing out to be premature ....makes 10 years yield down from 3.5 to 2.6 ...

Market overreacted before now correcting to actual data ...will keep going both ways for some time ahead till all worries over ...which is never ...lol

But trading range will keep getting shifted higher or lower on actual data ....at present it looks shifting to 3900-4200

[allfromacell]

There was also a much less hawkish tone yesterday relative to what we've gotten used to.

"...we are now at levels broadly in line with our estimates of neutral interest rates, and after front-loading our hiking cycle until now we will be much more data dependent going forward''.

".. As the stance of monetary policy tightens further, it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases...while we assess how our cumulative policy adjustments are affecting the economy and inflation," Powell said.

Also as oil appears to have peaked, shipping rates also showing relief CPI futures have started to fall a lot over the past few weeks all point to higher equity valuations.

I think anything is possible but it is starting to look more and more lickely that the bottom is in.

[Bobdn]

Golly, another big day.

And here comes Amazon...big, big result.

[winner69]

So we are back into speculation mode …like fundamentals don’t matter any more

[Bobdn]

Apple: $23b of operating cash flow. Sounds big but I honestly don't understand results and don't have to, thankfully.

USF and USG will be up today I guess. What a way to finish July.

[winner69]

Inflation all over ... Joe is sorting it with the Inflation Reduction Act

If markets can't do it we'll legislate

[bull....]

So we are back into speculation mode …like fundamentals don’t matter any more

i think fundamentals will play a bigger role in sept earnings period in the US and feb/mar for NZ

[bull....]

speaking of good places to hide in the bear this yr so far we have had energy ( which may have peaked ) and US dollar.
also utilities have been good in the US they are flat for the yr

In NZ only as an investor if you had positioned your portfolio defensively at the start of the yr your doing alright so far

US dollar cash
cnu
vct
spk

you would be up 16 odd % + against market down nearly as much

add in ift and the gentailers and you will have weathered the storm so far.
of course easy to look back in hindsight but just goes to show what you could have done.